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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SUVA 000554 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM EAID TN CH
SUBJECT: Tonga Update: elections in 2008; reforms postponed to 2010; 
state of emergency; media constraints; China loan 
 
REF: A) SUVA 466 B) SUVA 442 C) SUVA 405 
 
The message is sensitive but unclassified.  Handle accordingly. 
 
Summary 
------- 
¶1. (SBU) The final session of Tonga's three-year Legislative 
Assembly concluded November 1, with elections now slated for April 
¶2008.  PM Sevele, as a royal appointee, will not have to face 
election.  Pro-democracy People's Representatives, who had doggedly 
argued for the 2008 election to take place under reforms that would 
give them a majority in the assembly, denounced an Assembly decision 
to postpone the first post-reform election until 2010.  A binding 
commitment to the reforms has not yet been made.  The trial of five 
People's Representatives, charged with sedition over the November 
2006 riot, has been put off until August 2008.  Emergency 
regulations put in place after the riot have been extended for a 
13th time.  The Tonga Broadcasting Commission is refusing to allow 
programs from a prominent pro-democracy group, and government has 
said it will issue guidelines to government-owned media on political 
reporting.  Tonga and China signed a USD 60 million loan agreement 
to fund reconstruction of the capital city's riot-damaged business 
district, amid worries about fiscal consequences and the possibility 
of increased illegal Chinese immigration.  End Summary. 
 
Parliament: Final Words on Election Dates and Reforms 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
¶2. (U) The final session of Tonga's three-year Legislative Assembly 
resumed, and effectively closed, on October 29.  Given the many 
weighty issues to be considered, there was considerable public and 
media criticism when the Assembly's opening was delayed by several 
days so members could attend a school anniversary celebration and 
then was closed by the king the day it finally re-convened.  October 
29 was the only day for substantive debate.  The formal closing 
ceremony on November 1 was boycotted by five of the Assembly's seven 
People's Representatives as an expression of their disappointment 
with the king's abrupt closing of the Assembly.  Public attendance 
at the closing, which is encouraged and facilitated by government, 
was markedly sparse. 
 
¶3. (U) The Assembly on its final day returned to the issue of 
constitutionally mandated 2008 general elections.  In the Assembly's 
September sitting, the People's Representatives failed by a vote of 
7-15  to pass a proposal to have the 2008 poll conducted under 
democratic reforms proposed by a tripartite committee (reftels) or, 
alternatively, to have the first election under the reforms in 2009. 
 Voting for Nobles' and People's Representatives is now scheduled 
for April 23 and 24, 2008, respectively, based on Tonga's existing 
electoral arrangements.  The reform proposals, which would guarantee 
a People's Representative majority in the Assembly and other 
democratic changes, must now be finalized by the new Assembly, 
presumably for implementation in elections in 2010. 
 
¶4. (U)  The October 29 Assembly session also discussed the PM's 
contention that he and Tourism Minister Fineasi Funaki (another 
former People's Representative) do not need to run for re-election 
in 2008 because they were appointed ministers by, and serve at the 
pleasure of, the king.  The attorney general confirmed this, much to 
the consternation of the sitting People's Representatives, some of 
whom had predicted the PM's impending defeat at the polls. 
 
Electoral Reforms: Details Still to Come 
---------------------------------------- 
¶5. (SBU) Despite the Assembly's September endorsement of electoral 
reforms put forward in July by the tripartite parliamentary 
committee, members have still not formally voted to commit Tonga to 
the new system.  People's Representative Clive Edwards says the lack 
of a formal commitment worries him, since the new government could 
go back on its support for the changes.  Still, a spokesman from the 
PM's office assured us that the PM and Cabinet fully support the new 
division of seats between nobles' and people's representatives, a 
proposal for parliament to name the prime minister and most of the 
cabinet from its own ranks (with the king permitted to select four 
cabinet members), and the invocation of those reforms in 2010. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Agreement still has to be reached on at least two other key 
issues: reforms to electoral constituencies and the voting system 
(one person, one vote; or single transferable; or preferential, 
etc.)  The tripartite committee could not reach consensus on those 
matters.  One knowledgeable contact noted that if the new Assembly 
after 2008 elections were to attempt to reverse the already agreed 
reforms, there would be an "enormous risk" of a popular backlash. 
 
Looking Ahead to the Elections 
 
SUVA 00000554  002 OF 003 
 
 
------------------------------ 
¶7. (SBU) People's Representative Akilisi Pohiva has told us he was 
frustrated by what he perceived as government backtracking in the 
Assembly when its representatives voted to postpone electoral 
reforms to the 2010 election.  He claimed that government had 
already made up its mind last March, before the tripartite 
committee's discussions.  Pohiva told us this week that since the 
closure of the Assembly, the pro-democracy camp has been holding 
village-level seminars on non-violent political activism, using the 
opportunity to discuss the reforms and to prepare the faithful for 
the upcoming elections.  Pohiva recently told a Radio Australia 
reporter that the development of formal political parties like those 
found in other countries is now inevitable in Tonga.  The Friendly 
Island Human Rights and Democracy Movement he heads is a registered 
"incorporated society" and is a political party in everything but 
name. 
 
Court Cases: No End in Sight 
---------------------------- 
¶8. (U) The trial of five People's Representatives - including Pohiva 
and Edwards -- charged with sedition for their alleged role in 
instigating the November 2006 riot has been postponed until August 
¶2008.  After the court tossed out most of the original charges in 
September, the Crown controversially added two additional charges of 
abetment to a riotous assembly and abetment to the damage of 
buildings.  The five accused have appealed that move, but the 
appeals court will not sit again until July. 
 
¶9. (U) Police contacts tell us Tonga's courts have processed about 
half of the more than 500 persons charged with offences related to 
the November 2006 riot.  Of about 90 people who have gone before the 
courts, most have been tried at the Supreme Court, resulting in 
fines, or verdicts of acquittal, or suspended sentences.  A few 
prison sentences, generally in the range of three to seven years, 
have been handed down to those convicted of breaking into buildings 
or taking leading roles in the looting.  The first group trial of 
seven persons charged with serious offenses relating to the riots 
ended October 30 with the acquittal of six.  The seventh was 
convicted of "housebreaking" and has yet to be sentenced.  A second 
group trial of seven defendants is now under way. 
 
Emergency Regulations: One Year and Counting 
-------------------------------------------- 
¶10. (U) On November 12, the government extended emergency 
regulations for a thirteenth month.  Minister for Information 
Afu'alo Matoto told the media that the Police and Defense Services 
remain concerned about the potential for a repeat of last year's 
violence, though he observed that he himself doesn't think that 
likely.  Police Minister Siaosi' Aho, meanwhile, said the shooting 
of a Chinese shopkeeper during a recent attempted robbery was one 
factor in his recommendation that the government maintain the 
emergency regulations.  Gun crimes are rare in Tonga, and while the 
attack is apparently unrelated to political "unrest," the looting 
and violence during the riot, including against Chinese shops, 
remains vivid in everyone's minds. 
 
Press Freedom: Government to Issue Guidelines 
--------------------------------------------- 
¶11. (SBU) The Friendly Islands Human Rights and Democracy Movement 
has complained that the media regulator, the Tonga Broadcasting 
Commission (TBC), is barring pro-democracy programs from 
government-owned Television Tonga and Radio Tonga (Tonga's most 
widely heard broadcaster).  Pohiva has complained to us bitterly 
about the restrictions on political speech that, he said, make 
reaching the voting public difficult.  Pro-government programs such 
as those hosted by the prime minister's Reconciliation Advisor, 
Viliame Afeaki, and government media consultant Kalafi Moala 
continue to be broadcast.  New Information Minister Matoto told 
members of the Tonga Media Council November 16 that government's 
on-going ban on political programs and parliamentary reports, 
started in June was, in fact, not a consequence of the state of 
emergency but because of "government's perception that reports made 
by Radio Tonga and Television Tonga are unbalanced."  In a worrisome 
development, Matoto said government plans to draw up guidelines for 
the journalists of Radio Tonga and Television Tonga so the media can 
"work within the policy and set regulations in broadcasting and 
printing."  Independent media have expressed their unease. 
 
China Loan and China Labor 
-------------------------- 
¶12. (SBU) On October 19, Tonga and the PRC signed a RMB 440 million 
(USD $60 million) concessional loan agreement for the redevelopment 
of post-riot Nuku`alofa.  Reportedly, the IMF has expressed concern 
that the size of loan and future exchange-rate changes could stress 
 
SUVA 00000554  003 OF 003 
 
 
Tonga's fiscal position.   The Tonga government is now discussing 
implementation with the lead contractor, China Civil Engineering 
Construction Corporation (CCECC).  CCECC has been active in Tonga 
for several years, with a number of large projects already 
completed, including a national convention center that hosted the 
October Pacific Island Forum meetings.  The work has resulted in an 
influx of Chinese construction workers, which People's 
Representative Pohiva says has fueled illegal immigration and 
resentment by the Tonga community.  Following the loan signing, PM 
Sevele noted, "There will be some people from China, but we hope 
there will be a sharing of jobs available from the reconstruction 
between China and Tonga, and that is being negotiated at the 
moment." 
 
¶13.  (U) The Legislative Assembly sent a delegation to visit the PRC 
November 17-25, headed by Finance Minister Siosiua Utoikamanu.  The 
invitation, from the PRC National People's Congress (NPC), 
reciprocated a visit to Nuku`alofa in early September in which the 
NPC delegation came bearing gifts of laptop computers and furniture 
for Tonga's Legislative Assembly.  China also donated a fleet of 
police motorcycles and luxury sedans for the Forum summit, which are 
now being used by various ministries. 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶14. (SBU) Until King, Cabinet, and Nobles join People's Reps to 
commit Tonga formally to reforms nothing is certain.  Per previous 
reporting, the King seems anxious to proceed, acknowledging the 
potential volatility of the public mood.  The 2008 election may not 
directly test the popularity of PM Sevele; but how People's Rep 
activists like Pohiva and Edwards fare will be an indicator of the 
public mood, post-riot.  If Pohiva continues to be the leading 
vote-getter, the push to cement reforms in place ASAP will receive a 
big boost. 
 
DINGER