VZCZCXRO7414
PP RUEHCN RUEHGH RUEHVC
DE RUEHSH #0229/01 3320419
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 280419Z NOV 07
FM AMCONSUL SHENYANG
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8272
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 1772
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC 0070
RHMFISS/COMUSKOREA J2 SEOUL KOR
RUEKJCS/DIA WASHDC 0055
RHHJJAA/JICPAC PEARL HARBOR HI 0019
RUCGEVC/JOINT STAFF WASHDC 0032
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RHMFISS/SACINCUNC SEOUL KOR
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC 0079
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 0526
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0018

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 SHENYANG 000229 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR PRM, EAP/CM, EAP/K 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: TEN YEARS AFTER KOREAN UNIFICATION 
TAGS: PREF KWMN PINR KN KS CH
SUBJECT: (S) NORTH KOREAN BORDER-CROSSERS: PRC THINKING ON 
UNHCR; GOVERNMENT-SPONSORED RESEARCH IN SHANDONG 
 
REF: SHENYANG 196 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: CONSUL GENERAL STEPHEN WICKMAN.  REASONS: 
1.4(b)/(d). 
 
¶1. (S) SUMMARY: One of China's leading state-sponsored 
specialists on North Korean border-crossers foresees no 
near-term evolution in PRC thinking on the UNHCR and its 
possible role in northeast China.  On a separate issue, the 
specialist also claimed that foreign activists publicizing 
their efforts to assist North Koreans in China leaves the 
PRC "no choice but to respond."  Two scholars in Shandong 
Province have been tasked by authorities there to research 
North Korean border-crosser issues as a result of what they 
claim to be a "new phenomenon" there: South Koreans 
attempting to smuggle North Korean border-crossers out of 
China and into the ROK via Shandong.  According to the 
scholars, Shandong Province, looking ahead to the Olympics, 
is also concerned that a potential North Korean border- 
crosser-related incident might undermine the success of its 
sailing events, slated to be held in Qingdao in summer 
¶2008.  END SUMMARY. 
 
INTERNAL PRC THINKING ON UNHCR 
------------------------------ 
¶2. (C) During a visit to Changchun November 5, Poloff met 
once again with the Jilin Academy of Social Sciences' ZHOU 
Weiping (PLEASE STRICTLY PROTECT), a leading PRC researcher 
of North Korean border-crosser issues for the government. 
(See reftel for background on her research, findings, and 
methodologies.) 
 
¶3. (S) Asked about internal PRC thinking on the possibility 
of a future UNHCR role in borderland northeast China, Zhou 
began by noting that she has no objection to UNHCR per se. 
But, since most North Korean border-crossers in northeast 
China are primarily crossing for economic reasons, she and 
her colleagues believe UNHCR currently has no basis for 
operating in northeast China, thus reiterating the standard 
PRC line.  As she has in the recent past, Zhou argued that 
her own interviews with North Korean border-crossers and 
the phenomenon of multiple, back-and-forth crossings 
suggest that economic reasons lay behind most of the 
surreptitious, cross-border movements (see reftel). 
 
¶4. (S) Zhou did not exclude the theoretical possibility of 
a future UNHCR role in northeast China, though she made it 
clear that this was not a likelihood in the near future. 
"If one day UNHCR were to become involved," Zhou told 
Poloff, South Korean and other religious and humanitarian 
groups currently active on the ground "cannot" be involved. 
Zhou criticized these groups, arguing that many "claim they 
want to help North Koreans" but then act contrary to the 
latter's interests by publicizing the group's activities, 
often to "earn money." (Zhou contended that local Chinese 
in the borderlands actually help North Korean border- 
crossers the most; residents and, in some cases, even 
police, feed and/or protect them.)  Once activist groups 
publicize their activities, the PRC government then "has no 
choice but to respond," Zhou concluded. 
 
INTERNAL PRC RESEARCH BEYOND NORTHEAST CHINA: SHANDONG 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
¶6. (C) Internal Chinese government-sponsored research on 
North Korean border-crossers is not limited to northeast 
China, though it is largely concentrated there.  Poloff met 
October 30 with LI Chunwang (STRICTLY PROTECT), Vice 
Director of Yantai University's East Asia Research 
Institute, and SUN Jingquan (STRICTLY PROTECT), a 
researcher at the institute, which is located in the 
second-tier seaside city of Yantai, in Shandong Province, 
near Qingdao, a relatively short ferry ride away from North 
and South Korea.  In Shenyang, on the heels of a trip to 
the PRC-DPRK border, Li and Sun told Poloff that they have 
been tasked by the "local" government (likely the Shandong 
provincial government) to investigate and report on North 
Korean border-crosser issues.  They said the reasons for 
government interest are two-fold. 
 
SHENYANG 00000229  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶7. (C) First, they said that the Shandong border 
authorities "recently" made an "alarming" bust of a DPRK- 
related, alien-smuggling operation in which the 
"snakeheads" (shetou) and the smuggled persons were both 
non-Chinese: a group of South Koreans had attempted to 
ferry North Korean border-crossers into the ROK by boat. 
This is a "new phenomenon," Li and Sun contended, because 
in the past the Shandong authorities typically only 
encountered either South Koreans or Chinese who smuggled 
PRC nationals into the ROK--usually to seek better-paying 
part-time work.  North Korean border-crossers were usually 
not part of the equation, but now are, and Li and Sun are 
following up by researching routes from the PRC-DPRK border 
to Shandong, as well as North Korean border-crosser issues 
more broadly.  Both demurred when asked about their 
findings thus far, but Li did mention that he suspects that 
some border-crossers are finding their way down to Shandong 
after crossing the Tumen River in the Yanbian Korean 
Autonomous Prefecture. 
 
¶8. (C) Second, Shandong will host Olympics events in 
Qingdao next summer, and the government is concerned about 
a possibly embarrassing, well-publicized incident involving 
North Korean border-crossers or those seeking to assist 
them.  Li and Sun pointed to the well-known incident at the 
most recent Asian Games (held in Changchun, China), in 
which South Korean athletes publicly held up signs 
proclaiming that Mount Changbai (Baektu-san) belonged to 
the ROK, as one type of scenario generating worry in 
Shandong. 
 
¶9. (C) Probed on the situation of North Korean border- 
crossers living in Shandong, Li and Sun offered little 
substantive comment, allowing only that border-crossers are 
"rare" in Shandong compared to the northeastern provinces. 
(NOTE: Li and Sun seemed to suggest at several points that 
they were largely carrying out this government-funded 
research as a side-project to help fund their normal, 
bread-and-butter research, which focuses on northeast Asia 
and the Korean Peninsula more broadly.  END NOTE.) 
WICKMAN