VZCZCXYZ0012
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHVJ #2370/01 3061818
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 021818Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7316
INFO RUEHBW/AMEMBASSY BELGRADE 0484
RUEHVB/AMEMBASSY ZAGREB 0463
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUFOAOA/USNIC SARAJEVO
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS

UNCLAS SARAJEVO 002370 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: BK PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: BOSNIA: PM SPIRIC RESIGNS 
 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) Prime Minister Nikola Spiric submitted his written 
resignation on Thursday, November 1.  It remains unclear 
whether the Presidency must formally accept or reject the 
resignation and Presidency members met today without taking a 
decision.  OHR lawyers believe that the resignation took 
effect upon its submission and the Presidency has no 
authority to return Spiric to office.  In that context OHR 
maintains that the sitting government remains in office under 
a technical mandate until a new government can be formed. 
On Monday, the RSNA will meet to determine whether to endorse 
a boycott, or other measures designed to obstruct the 
functioning of the state government.  Dodik has been 
relatively restrained in his rhetoric while discussions 
between the OHR and RS lawyers explore whether the OHR can 
provide the Serbs with legal assurances that will resolve 
their concerns.  End Summary. 
 
Spiric Resigns 
-------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) The President of the BiH Council of Ministers (Prime 
Minister of Bosnia-Herzegovina) Nikola Spiric submitted his 
resignation to the Tri-Presidency on Thursday, November 1. 
The Presidency met Friday morning November 2 to consider the 
action and whether it has the authority to accept or reject 
the resignation.  The Presidency meeting adjourned without 
reaching a decision and resolved to revisit the issue at an 
unspecified future date with Spiric present. 
 
Presidency Uncertain of its Role 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Although they have not reached a final conclusion, 
OHR lawyers believe that the Presidency has no authority to 
accept or reject the resignation of the Prime Minister and 
that it is binding once submitted.  OHR is therefore of the 
opinion that the Council of Ministers (CoM) has become a 
caretaker government under a "technical mandate."  Under this 
arrangement Ministers still perform the duties of government 
but effectively are awaiting the appointment of a new 
government.   Under the most benign possible outcome the 
current government could potentially be remain under a new 
mandate.  A similar arrangement was in place from October 
2006 to January of this year while the Terzic government 
awaited the formation of a new governing coalition. 
 
Possible Serb Actions 
--------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Assuming Spiric does not accept reappointment, the 
current government continues under technical mandate until a 
new Council of Ministers can be appointed.  The threat by RS 
Prime Minister Dodik's political party, the SNSD, to withdraw 
from government has complicated the picture.  On Monday, the 
Republika Srpska National Assembly (RSNA) will review the 
results of this week's Peace Implementation Council (PIC), 
and ongoing discussions between OHR and RS lawyers over the 
Lajcak measures to determine whether to endorse a pull-out, 
boycott, or other measures. 
 
OHR Negotiates 
-------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) RS Prime Minister Dodik's statements yesterday 
following the PIC have been more mild than were recently the 
case.  In recent public statements he asserted that unless 
the High Representative is able to provide adequate legal 
interpretations addressing Serb concerns SNSD will be forced 
to withdraw and go into opposition.  The discussions between 
the OHR and RS lawyers are intended to produce those 
assurances, so there may be room for Dodik to avert the 
crisis that would follow Serb/SNSD boycott or withdrawal. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) There are many courses of action open to the Serbs, 
including but not limited to a boycott, withdrawal, or 
non-participation.  The method chosen to effect blockage may 
also vary by governmental body in order to maximize 
obstruction tailored to the distinct quorum and voting rules 
in each body. Ironically, while the Lajcak measures ease 
decision-making in the CoM and are meant eventually to do so 
also in the House of Representatives, the Serbs could use 
another body such as the Presidency or the House of Peoples 
to block decision-making, thus showing both the limitations 
of the High Representative's streamlining effort (absent will 
of the parties to make them work) and the emptiness of Serb 
fears of being outvoted.  End Comment. 
ENGLISH