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FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2502
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHDU/AMCONSUL DURBAN 9317
RUEHTN/AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN 5008
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PRETORIA 003829 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/S R. MARBURG 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/29/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM SF
SUBJECT: ZUMA ADVISOR SHAIK OUTLINES CAMPAIGN STRATEGY 
 
REF: A. PRETORIA 3448 
     ¶B. PRETORIA 3764 
     ¶C. PRETORIA 3783 
 
PRETORIA 00003829  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Donald Teitelbaum.  Reasons 1.4( 
b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: ANC Deputy President Jacob Zuma hopes to 
defeat current ANC President Thabo Mbeki during the ANC 
nomination process, before the December 16-20 national 
conference even begins, according to Zuma informal advisor Mo 
Shaik.  Zuma is confident and has public support, but even 
Shaik admitted that Zuma lacks funds and a strong nationwide 
organizational structure.  Zuma's slate for the top six 
leadership positions includes perceived Mbeki opponents 
Kgalema Motlanthe, Mathews Phosa, and Gwede Mantashe, as well 
as his ex-wife ForMin Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma and 
Parliamentary Speaker Baleka Mbete.  Trade union and 
communist party leaders Zwelinzima Vavi and Blade Nzimande 
are providing campaign counsel to Zuma, and on economic 
policy former minister Jay Naidoo and bank executive Ketso 
Gordhan are key advisors.  According to Shaik, Zuma would 
highlight crime, civil service capacity, unemployment, and 
economic diversification if he became president.  While Zuma 
is trying to create an aura of inevitability around his 
presidential campaign, we continue to question his 
organizational strength and finances, and believe the race 
remains too early to call.  END SUMMARY. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
Goal to Defeat Mbeki Before Conference 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) In an October 24 follow-up meeting with PolOff (ref 
A), businessman Mo Shaik, informal advisor to ANC Deputy 
President Jacob Zuma, outlined Zuma's strategy to defeat 
current ANC President Thabo Mbeki at the December 16-20 ANC 
conference.  (NOTE:  A former ANC and SAG intelligence 
official and diplomat, Shaik is the brother of Shabir Shaik, 
who is serving a 15-year sentence on corruption and fraud 
charges stemming from his "corrupt relationship" with Zuma. 
END NOTE)  According to Shaik, Zuma hopes to avoid a fight on 
the conference floor by nailing down the support of most of 
South Africa's nine provinces, while splitting the vote in 
areas where Mbeki retains support.  Shaik claimed that three 
provinces must formally nominate a candidate during the 
nomination process, which ends November 26.  (NOTE: This 
appears contrary to our interpretation of the ANC rules, 
which suggest that the top three candidates for ANC president 
will be presented at the national conference (ref B).  END 
NOTE.)  Zuma will try to prevent Mbeki from hitting the 
three-province target, Shaik said, suggesting that Mbeki only 
has strong support in parts of Eastern and Western Cape 
Provinces. 
 
¶3. (C) The only other way to be nominated as president is for 
25 percent of delegates to support the nomination on the 
conference floor.  Zuma does not think Mbeki could pull this 
off, but is worried about Tokyo Sexwale (who could "buy 
votes") or Cyril Ramaphosa (nomination by acclamation). 
 
------------ 
Zuma Top Six 
------------ 
 
¶4. (C) Shaik confirmed the accuracy of the Zuma candidate 
list for the top six ANC positions, which has been reported 
in the press: 
 
-- Jacob Zuma, President (current ANC Deputy President) 
-- Kgalema Motlanthe, Deputy President (current 
Secretary-General) 
 
SIPDIS 
-- Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, Chairman (current ForMin) 
-- Gwede Mantashe, Secretary-General (current chair of South 
African Communist Party, former union leader) 
QAfrican Communist Party, former union leader) 
-- Baleka Mbete, Deputy Secretary-General (current 
Parliamentary Speaker) 
-- Mathews Phosa, Treasurer (businessman, former Mpumalanga 
Premier) 
 
(NOTE: Motlanthe, Mantashe and Phosa are generally considered 
to be pro-Zuma, or at least not in Mbeki's camp.  ForMin 
Dlamini-Zuma, Zuma's ex-wife and the only candidate on both 
Zuma's and Mbeki's list, and Mbete bring gender balance to 
the slate.  END NOTE.)  Shaik claimed that Mbeki's list for 
the top six is not fixed, which he argued is a sign of 
disarray in the President's campaign. 
 
PRETORIA 00003829  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
 
--------------------- 
Lack of Funds Problem 
--------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) Zuma's big weakness is money, Shaik admitted.  The 
Zuma camp is "begging and borrowing," but is facing opponents 
with either state resources (Mbeki) or private resources 
(Sexwale).  The big banks and other large businesses are 
still nervous about funding Zuma's campaign, largely because 
they fear retribution if Mbeki wins. 
 
¶6. (C) Shaik said that Zuma has very effective local 
structures in some provinces, but is struggling in others. 
He complained that Mbeki's "imbizos" (official name for SAG 
town hall meetings) and travel schedule are being used for 
campaign purposes -- public imbizos during the day; private 
fundraising events and strategy meetings at night. 
 
--------------- 
Zuma's Advisors 
--------------- 
 
¶7. (C) Zuma's campaign is drawing on the advice of many 
"friends."  Shaik mentioned by name: 
 
-- South African Communist Party (SACP) head Blade Nzimande, 
trade union COSATU Secretary General Zwelinzima Vavi, and 
former South African National Defense Force (SANDF) Chief 
Siphiwe Nyanda are involved in campaign strategy; 
 
-- Former Minister Jay Naidoo and Rand Merchant Bank official 
Ketso Gordhan (nephew of South African Revenue Service head 
Pravin Gordhan) are helping with economic policy (Shaik said 
that Pravin Gordhan is also a "Zuma man"); and, 
 
-- General Nyanda, former MP Tony Yengeni (who served time in 
jail on fraud charges), and Free State party head Ace 
Magashule are putting together Zuma's National Executive 
Council (NEC) candidate list. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
Clearer Line Between ANC and Government 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (C) Shaik claimed that Zuma is still putting together his 
nomination list for the 60-member ANC National Executive 
Council.  He said the list would include three people from 
each of the nine provinces and will attempt to balance 
gender.  The Zuma camp wants an NEC that includes younger 
people, and expects that most of those on the NEC would 
not/not serve in government (in contrast to the current 
government where more than half of NEC members hold 
government positions).  Shaik said that they hope to draw a 
clearer line between the party and government in a Zuma 
administration, arguing that Mbeki has muddied the waters on 
that issue. 
 
--------------- 
Zuma Presidency 
--------------- 
 
¶9. (C) Shaik highlighted the potential awkwardness of Zuma 
serving as ANC president while Mbeki remains national 
president.  He repeated the idea of Mbeki "exiting 
gracefully" after his defeat in December (ref A), suggesting 
today that Mbeki be appointed "super AU envoy" for NEPAD, 
with a commitment from Zuma for SAG funding for NEPAD.  Shaik 
also mentioned the possibility of calling an early election 
in 2008.  (NOTE: National parliamentary elections are 
currently scheduled for April 2009.  To call early elections, 
a majority of members of parliament must vote to dissolve the 
body, provided at least three years have passed since the 
last election.  END NOTE.) 
 
¶10. (C) Zuma plans to focus on four core issues when he takes 
office, Shaik said: combating crime; building capacity in the 
civil service; diversifying the economy; and reducing 
structural unemployment.  Zuma wants to partner more 
effectively with big business, which he believes has been 
largely ignored by the Mbeki regime.  On foreign policy, 
people like South African Ambassador to the U.S. Ambassador 
Qpeople like South African Ambassador to the U.S. Ambassador 
Welile Nhlapo, General Nyanda, and DFA Great Lakes Envoy 
Kingsley Mamabolo would play key roles in a Zuma 
administration.  Shaik says that Zuma continues to have 
respect for DepForMin Aziz Pahad and would like to include 
him in a Zuma government.  Zuma has no/no respect for Aziz's 
 
PRETORIA 00003829  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
brother, Minister in the Presidency Essop Pahad. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶11. (C) Zuma is clearly trying to create an aura of 
inevitability about his victory in December.  We agree that 
public support for Zuma is growing (ref C), driven as much by 
unease with Mbeki as enthusiasm for Zuma.  However, the 
battle for the ANC presidency will not play out in the public 
realm, but rather in the trenches of the ANC branches and 
provincial structures where there is no "inevitability" about 
his ultimate victory at all.  We remain unsure whether Zuma 
has the organizational skills and funding to defeat Mbeki in 
this arena.  With a divided ANC, the door remains open to a 
"compromise candidate" like former ANC Secretary General 
Cyril Ramaphosa or former Gauteng Premier Tokyo Sexwale. 
While we are only six weeks away from the ANC conference, the 
situation, as Jacob Zuma Trust Chairman Don Mkhwanazi told us 
October 30, "changes every day." 
 
¶12. (U) This cable was coordinated with Consulate General 
Durban. 
BOST