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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MUSCAT 001026 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/07/2017 
TAGS: PINT PGOV KDEM KMPI KWMN MU
SUBJECT: POST-ELECTION ANALYSIS AND DEVELOPMENTS 
 
REF: A. MUSCAT 992 
     ¶B. MUSCAT 979 
     ¶C. MUSCAT 931 
     ¶D. MUSCAT 742 
     ¶E. MUSCAT 181 
     ¶F. 06 MUSCAT 1468 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Gary A. Grappo for Reasons 1.4 (b, d) 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1.  (C) Many Omanis continue to comment favorably on the 
successful October 27 national elections for Oman's Majlis 
al-Shura.  Approximately 70% of the new Majlis member hold a 
bachelor's degree or higher.  According to contacts, some 
vote-buying did occur and a few voters in several districts 
reportedly fell off the registration rolls due to technical 
errors, but without noticeable impact on the electoral 
outcome.  A solid majority of winning candidates was backed 
by an informal alliance of leaders from major tribes. 
Candidates from outside this tribal network, however, managed 
to pick up more seats in the Majlis than in 2003. 
Campaigning in some districts was intense, with candidates 
sometimes pushing, or even exceeding, the limits of 
permissible campaign activities.  There was widespread public 
disappointment, reflected in the local press, that no women 
were elected to the Majlis.  As expected by many, the Sultan 
increased the number of women in the newly appointed Majlis 
al-Dawla from nine to 14.  End Summary. 
 
------------------------- 
A SUCCESSFUL ELECTION ... 
------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) More than one week since the national elections for 
the Majlis al-Shura, Omanis are still commenting on how 
smoothly the voting process was conducted and the larger than 
anticipated turn out of registered voters (ref A).  To post's 
knowledge, only one losing candidate -- a woman who garnered 
relatively few votes -- has filed a grievance with the 
government to contest the results in her district, alleging 
that two of her competitors spread a rumor that she had 
withdrawn from the race.  Although the winning candidates are 
not, on average, much younger than the membership of the 
outgoing Majlis, they are better educated:  roughly 60% hold 
a bachelor's degree, while another 10% hold a master's degree 
or higher (two have earned a Ph.D.).  An additional 20%, 
approximately, have completed secondary school.  This stands 
in sharp contrast to claims that many previous Majlis members 
were functionally illiterate or close to it.  (Note:  Of the 
70 members of the outgoing Majlis al-Shura who ran for 
re-election, 38 were successful.  End Note.) 
 
------------------- 
... BUT NOT PERFECT 
------------------- 
 
¶3.  (C) Below the surface of the vote, however, a few cracks 
are evident.  Contacts report that a limited number of voters 
in several districts -- perhaps as many as 50 in some heavily 
populated areas -- who had participated in the 2003 elections 
were turned away from the polls for failing to appear on the 
registration lists, even though they should have been 
automatically registered to vote in 2007.  (Note:  Registered 
voters for the 2003 elections were not required to 
re-register to cast ballots in 2007.  End Note.)  It appears, 
however, that these deletions were caused solely by technical 
glitches and did not occur in sufficient number to alter the 
outcome of any of the electoral races.  Moreover, all Omanis 
were able to check in advance whether they were on the 
registration rolls by accessing a computer website or 
reviewing hard copies of relevant lists posted in local 
government offices. 
 
¶4.  (C) Anecdotal evidence indicates that small-scale 
vote-buying -- also present during the 2003 elections -- 
occurred in some districts, but did not decisively influence 
any electoral contest.  While it is not possible to gauge the 
extent of this practice, contacts report that the exchange of 
money for votes was overall very limited and firmly resisted 
by many candidates.  Furthermore, when it did occur, the 
exchanges were allegedly for nominal amounts (between USD 15 
and 25) and were often initiated by voters -- usually poor 
Omanis -- who requested money from a candidate or a "broker." 
 
 
---------------------------- 
TRIBALISM NOT ALWAYS SUPREME 
---------------------------- 
 
MUSCAT 00001026  002 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶5.  (C) In keeping with past practice, leaders of major 
tribal groups gathered together in different areas of Oman 
well before the elections to try to reach consensus on which 
candidates (presumably from their membership) to support.  As 
in prior elections, backing from one of these "tribal 
alliances" was determinative in many races; a majority of 
winning candidates were the consensus choice of the most 
important tribes in their districts.  (Note:  None of the 
tribal alliances reportedly threw their weight behind a 
female candidate, which may explain why no women were elected 
to the Majlis al-Shura.  End Note.) 
 
¶6.  (C) More candidates without the backing of large tribal 
groups, however, won a seat in the Majlis than in 2003.  A 
number of prominent tribal sheiks in the al Batinah region, 
for example, did not succeed in their electoral bids. 
According to contacts, two main factors contributed to this 
shift.  First, the large tribes overestimated their numbers 
and/or their percentage of the registered electorate in some 
districts and thus mistakenly thought that their preferred 
candidates could coast to victory with little effort. 
Second, the loosening of campaign restrictions by the 
government allowed energetic candidates without the backing 
of the big tribes to significantly broaden their visibility 
among voters. 
 
------------------ 
PUSHING THE LIMITS 
------------------ 
 
¶7.  (C) Intense campaigning was a key factor in the success 
of winning candidates from outside the large tribes.  In the 
southern city of Salalah, one of the election victors (and 
the brother of one of post's Locally Engage Staff Omani 
employees) from a relatively small family clan attributed his 
win to his fervent campaign work.  In the week preceding the 
election, he explained, he was busy from morning until late 
at night calling at different homes, social events, and cafes 
to talk to extended family members, friends and campaign 
supporters, as well as their friends and families. 
 
¶8.  (C) Although the government continued to ban large-scale 
public campaign events and certain other activities, some 
candidates reportedly pushed, and in certain cases exceeded, 
the bounds of legally allowable campaigning.  A wealthy 
supporter of the election winner in Salalah referenced above, 
for example, hosted a gathering in his mansion of almost 300 
people -- telling invited guests to bring whoever they wanted 
along -- to better acquaint them with his candidate (although 
he did notify the local elections committee in advance).  In 
apparent contravention to relevant regulations, a few 
candidates printed and distributed brochures, while others 
used microphones to address large numbers of people drawn to 
public tents set up near the middle of towns.  In some cases 
the relevant local elections authorities acted to stop 
impermissible or questionable activities.  But more often 
than not, according to contacts, these committees did not 
intervene, especially if they received advance notice of the 
action in question and it was not a clearly egregious 
violation. 
 
-------------------- 
WHERE ARE THE WOMEN? 
-------------------- 
 
¶9.  (U) Since the elections, many Omanis have commented on 
their disappointment that no female candidates won their 
electoral campaigns.  (Note:  The government claims that 
almost half of those casting votes were women.  End Note.) 
This has been reflected in the local press.  An editorial 
writer in the October 29 edition of government-owned Arabic 
daily "Oman" stated that, "Democracy is deprived of the 
presence of women in the Majlis (al-Shura); in my opinion, 
this absence of women will hinder the progress of the 
Majlis."  An op-ed in independent Arabic daily "Shabiba" on 
October 30 asserted that "because the voice of women is 
extremely important" to the consultative process, "there must 
be a quota for women to guarantee their representation." 
 
¶10.  (U) On November 3, Minister of Social Development Dr. 
Sharifa al-Yahya'ee (one of 3 female Omani ministers) told a 
gathering of failed women election candidates that her 
ministry "is going to do its best in encouraging women to run 
successful and organized campaigns in the next Shura 
elections, in cooperation with other public and private 
entities."  In an interview with USG-supported Radio Sawa 
(found only on-line in Oman), Raheela al-Riyami -- one of two 
women in the outgoing Majlis al-Shura -- urged Omani women 
not to be discouraged with the voting results and to continue 
their participation in the political process.  She also 
 
MUSCAT 00001026  003 OF 003 
 
 
rejected criticism of the elections, saying that they were 
conducted in a fair and transparent manner and reflected the 
will of Omani voters. 
 
----------------- 
A NEW UPPER HOUSE 
----------------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Many Omanis believed that Sultan Qaboos would 
react to the failure of women to capture even a single seat 
in the Majlis al-Shura by expanding their presence in the 
next Majlis al-Dawla (the upper house of Oman's bicameral 
consultative body).  Their predictions were correct.  In the 
evening of November 5, the government announced that the 
Sultan had appointed a new Majlis al-Dawla of 70 Omanis that 
included 14 women, versus 9 of 61 members in the previous 
group. 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Eight of the women in the new upper house are 
carry-overs from the outgoing Majlis al-Dawla.  Of the 14 
Ph.D. holders in the incoming membership, eight are female. 
Interestingly, from information available to post, three of 
the new female members appear to be the only Shi'a in the 
Majlis al-Dawla.  (Note:  Based on family names and other 
information, post believes that only two members of the new 
Majlis al-Shura are Shi'a.  End Note.) 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶13.  (C) For two years, post pursued a campaign preparation 
program for Omani women under the Middle East Partnership 
Initiative (MEPI).  About 10-12 months ago, the Omani 
government made clear that it was not interested.  We can now 
righteously claim that this election's disappointing outcome 
with respect to female candidates might have been averted had 
we been able to conduct the training.  Post will look for an 
appropriate time, in coordination with MEPI, to again propose 
this program. 
GRAPPO