VZCZCXRO5458
OO RUEHLH RUEHPW
DE RUEHLH #0715/01 3301437
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
O P 261437Z NOV 07
FM AMCONSUL LAHORE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3530
INFO RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY 4115
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 0012
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 0062
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 0215
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 0563
RUEHKP/AMCONSUL KARACHI PRIORITY 1759
RUEHPW/AMCONSUL PESHAWAR PRIORITY 1449
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEHLH/AMCONSUL LAHORE 4487

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 LAHORE 000715 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  11/26/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PREL AEMR ASEC CASC KFLO MARR PINR AMGT PK
SUBJECT: PML-N WILL NOT BOYCOTT ELECTIONS 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Michael T. Jordan, Acting Principal Officer, 
AMCONSUL Lahore, STATE. 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
¶1. (S) SUMMARY: According to a close confidant of Nawaz Sharif, 
the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) does not/not intend to 
boycott elections but will continue publicly and privately to 
threaten to do so in order to extract concessions from the 
government by insisting on the selection of a new, impartial 
chief Election Commissioner and the postponement of elections 
scheduled for January 8 to March 2008.  In addition, Nawaz 
refuses to reconcile with the senior PML-Q leadership, hopes to 
see himself as the next Prime Minister, his brother Shahbaz as 
Punjab Chief Minister, and plans to constitutionally remove 
President Pervez Musharraf from office in cooperation with the 
PPP if the two parties combined have a two/thirds majority of 
seats in the next National Assembly.   Euphoric over Nawaz's 
return, PML-N officials clearly are exaggerating their electoral 
prospects, but it is telling that Musharraf's own party leader 
already is courting Nawaz.  End summary. 
 
¶2. (S) The day after Nawaz's return to Lahore, Poloff met with 
former PML-N Punjab Member of the Provincial Assembly Rana 
Mashhood Ahmed Khan to discuss recent political developments. 
Khan said "off the record" that the PML-N will not carry out 
with its threat to boycott elections scheduled for January 8 but 
will continue to threaten to do so in order to extract 
concessions from the government.  At the top of the list is the 
appointment of a new and impartial chief election commissioner 
and the postponement of elections until March 2008.  Nawaz 
intends to use the additional two months to criss-cross the 
country in order to build up PML-N's organization strength and 
Nawaz's popularity after eight years of exile.  Khan also said 
that Nawaz believes the Saudi royal family intends to continue 
to pressure Musharraf to ensure that the PML-N faces a level 
electoral playing field. 
 
¶3. (S) Nawaz also told his party leadership that he will not 
reconcile with certain key Pakistan Muslim League (PML) leaders, 
especially former Prime Minister Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, 
former Punjab Chief Minister Chaudhry Pervez Elahi, former 
Federal Railways Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmed and former Federal 
Minister Religious Affairs Minister Ijaz ul-Haq.  According to 
Khan, Shujaat telephoned senior PML-N leader Chaudhary Nisaar 
Ali Khan last night and requested a meeting with Nawaz but the 
latter refused to entertain it.  Khan said that Musharraf's PML 
party is disintegrating and to reinforce his point claimed that 
already 21 PML members of the just dissolved National Assembly 
are in negotiations with Nawaz to jump ship. 
 
¶4. (S) Khan also predicted optimistically that if the PML-N wins 
the national and Punjab provincial elections, Nawaz would become 
Prime Minister and Shahbaz would again become Punjab Chief 
Minister.  If Nawaz's prior convictions prevent him from holding 
the position, Shahbaz would then take the PM position.  In any 
case, Nawaz seems to believe that his presidential pardon 
removes any legal impediments to his holding elected office and 
that Saudi pressure would ensure a decision favorable to him. 
Nawaz filed papers today to run for a National Assembly seat, 
his wife Kulsoom Nawaz will run for another National Assembly 
seat, Shahbaz will run for the National Assembly as well as for 
a Punjab Provincial Assembly seat, and his wife Hamza Shahbaz 
filed papers to run for a National Assembly seat.  Khan also 
said if the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and PML-N combined 
garner a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly, Nawaz 
intends to collaborate with Benazir Bhutto to constitutionally 
remove Musharraf from the office of President. 
 
¶5. (S) Bio Note: Khan, an IV alumnus, and his family are close 
and trusted confidants of Nawaz Sharif.  He was born on August 
26, 1966 in Lahore and is an attorney by profession.  The night 
before Nawaz returned to Lahore police forces detained him in 
the possible opening stages of a crackdown.  From the jail he 
was able to call Nawaz in Saudi Arabia and told him of his 
plight.  Nawaz told him to hold tight and that he would inform 
the Saudi royal family.  Several minutes later he claimed that 
he was released, and he credited Saudi intervention not only for 
his own release but for the avoidance of a massive government 
crackdown similar to what occurred the days preceding Nawaz's 
first attempt to return on September 10.  Khan eventually joined 
up with Nawaz at the airport and accompanied him to the Data 
Gunj Buksh Shrine.  He claimed that Nawaz was very emotional and 
could not help but cry upon his arrival in Lahore. 
 
¶6. (U) In a related development, Nawaz Sharif held a press 
 
LAHORE 00000715  002 OF 002 
 
 
conference after filing his election papers and denied that 
there was any American pressure or role in his return to 
Pakistan. He said he would cooperate with other opposition 
parties on electoral strategy, would not permit Pakistan to 
become another Iraq, and refused to join hands with the PML. 
Nawaz claimed that Musharraf failed to end terrorism in 
Pakistan, said that the religious parties were not extremists, 
and publicly warned that elections would be boycotted if the 
demands of the APDM were not met and accused the ruling party of 
already rigging the election. 
 
¶7. (C) There were only limited reports of political violence in 
Lahore and nothing spiraled out of control.  However, the son of 
former Chief Minister Pervez Elahi, Moonis Elahi, was the target 
of a small mob of lawyers who pelted him with rocks and sticks 
as he departed the election office after filing his nomination 
papers.  One source claimed that police nearby did nothing to 
intervene-an astonishing development if true since police 
inaction in this instance would have been unimaginable only 
several days ago.  Television cameras caught the event on tape. 
Reports indicate Moonis escaped serious injury. 
 
¶8. (S) Comment:  PML-N leaders clearly are euphoric over Nawaz's 
return, and their predictions of electoral victory are both 
exaggerated and premature.  Other than providing monetary 
assistance, we doubt the Saudis will engage any further on 
Nawaz's behalf in Pakistan.  Most interesting, however, is the 
fact that Musharraf's party chief, Chaudhry Shujaat, is already 
courting Nawaz. 
 
¶9. (U) Embassy Islamabad cleared on this cable. 
JORDAN