VZCZCXRO2325
OO RUEHCI
DE RUEHKT #2005/01 3250954
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 210954Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7508
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 6160
RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO PRIORITY 6479
RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA PRIORITY 1732
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY 4502
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 5749
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 2010
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA PRIORITY 3881
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 1908
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 3006
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 002005 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2017 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM KSEC NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL'S SOUTHEAST SHOWING IMPROVED SECURITY FOR NOW 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Nancy J. Powell.  Reasons 1.4 (b/d). 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (C) Government, police, and party officials in Jhapa (on 
November 14) and Ilam (on November 15) reported to Emboff 
that the security situation in their district was manageable. 
 However, all the officials agreed that if the politicians in 
Kathmandu cannot resolve their current impasse and set a new 
Constituent Assembly election date soon, the security 
situation is likely to deteriorate sharply.  The District 
Election Office staff is inexperienced, but eager to get back 
to work. 
 
Security Improved, Maoists and Limbuwan Still Problems 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶2. (C) While leaders in two southeastern districts saw the 
security situation as manageable, in a meeting on November 15 
with Emboff the Chief District Officer (CDO) of Ilam was more 
willing to concede actual and latent problems than government 
officials in Jhapa were on November 14.  (Note: Jhapa, the 
southeasternmost district of Nepal, has traditionally been a 
relatively calm area while Ilam, the district just north of 
Jhapa, has faced more Maoist and ethnic unrest. End Note.) 
They indicated Maoist and Limbuwan (an indigenous ethnic 
group in southeastern Nepal which comprises approximately two 
per cent of Nepal's population) groups have been active in 
both districts, but with greater numbers and effect in Ilam. 
Extortion by Maoists still takes place, although reportedly 
at lower levels than previously.  While both police and 
government officials admitted bandhs (traffic blockades) were 
generally successful, they thought the population obeyed out 
of fear, not support.  Officials reported that since the 
postponement of the election The Limbuwan had organized fewer 
disruptive activities, although they were uncertain as to 
why.  Police in both districts reported that all police posts 
destroyed or closed during the insurgency had been 
reestablished.  All the officials agreed that if the 
politicians in Kathmandu cannot resolve their current impasse 
and set a new Constituent Assembly election date soon, the 
security situation is likely to deteriorate sharply. 
 
Leaders Want Elections Held Soon 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) Staff at both District Election Offices (DEO) claimed 
to be ready to resume activities and conduct the election as 
soon as the Election Commission gives the word.  The staff 
admitted that some voter education activities conducted 
before the postponement had faced political disruptions and 
the education effort in Ilam appeared to have taken on a more 
partisan tone than in Jhapa.  Police and government officials 
in Ilam reported that only a few of the applicants for the 
temporary election security positions had any military or law 
enforcement background thus they were skeptical that the 
training time would have been sufficient.  Political party 
leaders and government officials unanimously supported making 
an extra effort to keep the Maoists a part of the electoral 
process - both to prevent the Maoists from causing security 
problems and to make the elections more meaningful.  Party 
leaders expressed broad support for conducting the election 
under a purely proportional electoral system.  None of the 
staff in either DEO had ever conducted an election 
previously, but they were eager to complete the task.  If the 
new election date is after mid-April and thus requires 
updating the voter registration lists, the staff estimated 
that process would take four to six months.  Conducting a new 
census would obviously take longer, but party leaders in 
Jhapa thought it would be possible to conduct a census 
peacefully if the Six-Party Alliance and Maoists were 
unified. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶4. (C) The government officials, police, and party leaders in 
 
KATHMANDU 00002005  002 OF 002 
 
 
Jhapa and Ilam all saw the political problems in Kathmandu as 
far more serious than any political issues they were facing 
in their district.  Agreement on an election date soon was 
viewed as providing the opportunity to maintain improved 
security and conduct a successful Constituent Assembly 
election.  The Assembly could then provide a forum where all 
groups could address their political demands.  In neither 
district have the Limbuwan, the Maoists, and Nepal Federation 
of Indigenous Nationalities (NEFIN), formed an alliance even 
though they all are demanding the adoption of a purely 
proportional electoral system and federalism.  Party leaders 
reported conducting some party activity outside the district 
headquarters, but not much, even though all admit the 
security situation is adequate to conduct such activities. 
Local leaders stated that land reform and other outstanding 
peace process issues should be dealt with only after election 
issues are resolved, but if no election date is announced 
soon the Limbuwan, Maoists, and NEFIN are likely to step up 
their agitation.  Although Jhapa is a Terai district, Madhesi 
groups are not a strong force there. 
POWELL