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C O N F I D E N T I A L GUATEMALA 002182 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC GT
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER: NOV. 4 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 
 
Classified By: Ambassador James M. Derham for reasons 1.4 (b&d). 
 
Summary 
------- 
¶1.  (C) According to most polls, center-right candidate Otto 
Perez Molina of the Partido Patriota enjoys a slim advantage 
coming into the Nov. 4 presidential election, but some polls 
show Alvaro Colom, of the center-left UNE, to be ahead.  In 
the final stages of the campaign, Colom has come across more 
forcefully in his public presentations, and apparently 
stopped Perez Molina's advance in the polls.  There is little 
likelihood of significant election day violence.  Logistical 
preparations are well underway, and national and 
international monitoring missions are set to observe the 
election.  Both candidates plan to prioritize economic growth 
and combating crime if elected, and both would seek good 
relations with the United States.  However, corruption and 
influence from organized crime are likely to pose challenges 
to either a Colom or Perez Molina administration.  End 
Summary. 
 
Polls Inconclusive 
------------------ 
¶2.  (U) The latest Vox Latina poll, released October 31, 
shows center-right Partido Patriota's Otto Perez Molina 
leading center-left UNE presidential candidate Alvaro Colom 
by 53% to 47%.  In contrast, a Borge & Asociados poll 
released October 29 shows Colom leading  by 39.4% to 35.1%. 
The October 12 Borge & Asociados poll showed Perez Molina 
leading Colom by 39.8% to 37.3%.  An October 8 Demoscopia 
poll showed Perez Molina leading Colom by 53.8% to 46.2% of 
valid responses, and a recent Noguera poll showed Perez 
Molina leading Colom 39% to 36%. 
 
Tenor of Campaign Deteriorates 
------------------------------ 
¶3.  (SBU) The closing phase of the presidential campaign has 
been characterized by mudslinging by both candidates.  Colom 
and Perez Molina have each accused the other of knowingly 
accepting campaign contributions from narcotraffickers, 
though neither has provided evidence.  Perez Molina canceled 
several final, scheduled debates.  In their final campaign 
appearances, Perez Molina has continued to maintain his focus 
on improving security, and Colom has stuck with his message 
of social development and inclusion. 
 
Turnout Dynamics 
---------------- 
¶4.  (SBU) The Sunday, Nov. 4 election follows a national 
holiday on Thursday, November 1.  Some Guatemalans will take 
Friday, Nov. 2 off to make for a four-day vacation weekend. 
Most observers agree that those who can afford to take 
vacation are more likely to vote for Perez Molina, so the 
timing is prejudicial to him.  However, many also believe 
that, while turnout will fall across the board from the first 
round (from 60% to perhaps the low 50's) because there are 
almost no mayoral or congressional elections during the 
second round, turnout will fall most in rural areas.  This is 
because rural people historically taken a keen interest in 
the mayoral races that directly affect their interests, but 
tend to perceive the presidency as distant and less relevant 
to their lives.  This would be prejudicial to Colom. 
Diminished Violence 
------------------- 
¶5.  (C) In comparison to the lead-up to the Sept. 9 
first-round election, assaults on, and murders of, political 
activists have diminished ahead of the second round.  Partido 
Patriota security policy analyst Jorge Herrera told poloffs 
October 5 that this was because there are no local races in 
October 5 that this was because there are no local races in 
the second round, so passions have cooled.  The few violent 
incidents during the first round mostly were linked to 
mayors' use of municipal funds, handing out of jobs, or other 
disputes over municipal resources.  Significant violence in 
response to the announcement of the election results on the 
night of Nov. 4 seems unlikely. 
 
Seeking Third-Party Support 
--------------------------- 
¶6.  (C) Both candidates have continued to seek the support of 
presidential candidates who were eliminated in the first 
round, their senior level supporters, and prominent members 
of other parties.  Seeking the support of Unionista voters, 
Colom offered to make Fritz Garcia Gallont again the Minister 
of Communications.  He won the support of popular Villa Nueva 
Mayor Salvador Gandara, who left the Unionista Party to join 
UNE.  Both Colom and Perez Molina have made public overtures 
to GANA's presidential candidate, Alejandro Giammattei, who 
placed third on September 9.  Perez Molina offered him any of 
the Ministries of Health, Communications, or Government; 
Giammattei appeared to be on the verge of embracing Patriota, 
but then demurred. 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶7.  (C) This election could go either way, though Otto Perez 
Molina has a slight lead in the major polls.  Colom's 
improved, more aggressive rhetoric enabled him to recover 
some momentum for the final round.  The two are now in a 
statistical dead heat.  Embassy does not anticipate 
significant violence, with the possible -- but statistically 
unlikely -- exception that the vote is so close that the 
announced loser can credibly question the results. 
Derham