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O 141258Z NOV 07
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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3921
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COPENHAGEN 001020 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR 
NSC FOR JUDY ANSLEY, MARIA GERMANO 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM MARR ECON SOCI DA
SUBJECT: DANISH ELECTIONS: PM RASMUSSEN WINS THIRD TERM 
WITH THIN MAJORITY 
 
REF: A. COPENHAGEN 1015 
     ¶B. COPENHAGEN 998 
     ¶C. COPENHAGEN 970 
 
Classified By: DCM Sandra Kaiser, reasons 1.4b,d 
 
1.(C) Summary: With a late surge and aided by the collapse of 
the centrist New Alliance party, Danish Prime Minister Anders 
Fogh Rasmussen,s Liberal-Conservative-Danish People,s Party 
bloc secured the narrowest of parliamentary majorities in 
November 13 elections, winning a historic third term.  The 
thinness of the government's margin may present new 
challenges and embolden the opposition -- especially the 
election's biggest gainer, the left-wing Socialist People,s 
Party -- but the results signal a convincing popular backing 
for Rasmussen,s center-right policies and satisfaction with 
Denmark's record economic health.  With the new parliament, 
we anticipate continuation of Denmark's valiant effort in 
Afghanistan, but more parliamentary attention to purported 
U.S. renditions and detainee abuse.  End summary. 
 
¶2. (C) With nearly 100 percent of votes counted, the 
Liberal-Conservative-Danish People's Party bloc is projected 
to win 89 seats, enabling it to reach a majority of 90 with 
the addition of one pro-government Faroe Islands seat 
(Greenland and the Faroes elect two seats each; the other 
Faroes seat and both Greenlandic ones will side with the 
opposition).  The Social Democratic-led bloc managed 81 seats 
in continental Denmark, or about 47 percent of the national 
vote. In the end, the erratic New Alliance party (Ref C) won 
just five seats, enough to give it a place in parliament as a 
possible ally of the government, but not as "kingmaker." 
 
¶3. (C) On election night, an exuberant Rasmussen extended an 
offer to New Alliance to join the government parties in 
backing a broad, common platform.  New Alliance founder Naser 
Khader's initial reaction was equivocal, but most analysts 
expect -- to the degree that Khader's moves can be predicted 
-- that New Alliance will at least refrain from siding 
actively with the opposition.  The good news for the prime 
minister, of course, is that he doesn't need New Alliance's 
support.  Early November 14, Rasmussen informed the Queen of 
his majority backing, continuing the current government for 
another possible four years.  The prime minister also began 
consultations with the leaders of the government parties and 
New Alliance on the broad parliamentary platform. 
 
¶4. (C) Rasmussen's Liberal party received less support than 
in 2005 elections, down to 46 seats from 52 last time, but 
remained the most-voted party, for the third election in a 
row.  The Conservatives ran a strong campaign and were able 
to match their 2005 strength after a long decline, securing 
18 seats.  It was the Danish People's Party, though, that 
made the difference for the government bloc.  The DPP defied 
the polls (which may underestimate the nationalist vote) and 
improved upon its dramatic 2005 performance, raising its 
total to 25 seats and confirming the political muscle of 
populist, anti-immigration sentiment in Denmark. 
 
¶5. (C) Social Democratic leader Helle Thorning-Schmidt won 
praise even in defeat for her campaign, which nevertheless 
resulted in the SDP's worst showing in over 100 years 
(although, at 45 seats, down only slightly from 2005). 
Thorning-Schmidt established herself in the race as a capable 
adversary and credible prime minister.  In conceding defeat, 
she vowed to win "next time" and most observers here believe 
that she will remain as opposition leader and be given that 
chance.  The SDP's lackluster performance contrasted with the 
extraordinary showing of its ally, the Socialist People's 
Party (SF), which more than doubled its representation in 
parliament, to 23 seats.  Led by the charismatic Villy 
Sovndal, the SF benefited from leftist disapproval of the 
SDP's moves toward the center and now stands to play a much 
more prominent role in Danish political life.  Given the SF's 
traditionally sharp criticism of the government on a wide 
range of issues including foreign policy (e.g., Afghanistan, 
cooperation with the U.S. in the war on terror), we can 
expect that the Danish opposition will be increasingly active 
and vocal in going after the government.  We also expect more 
parliamentary pressure on the government on controversial 
areas of counter-terrorism cooperation with the U.S. 
 
¶6. (C) The biggest loser in these elections is Naser Khader's 
New Alliance.  The party's rollercoastering support in the 
polls hit a trough precisely on election day and nearly 
resulted in New Alliance being shut out of parliament 
altogether.  The sensation New Alliance caused suggests a 
 
COPENHAGEN 00001020  002 OF 002 
 
 
desire for change even from centrist or center-right voters, 
but Naser Khader's poor performance during the campaign 
(fumbling questions on tax policy, vacillating on his backing 
for Rasmussen) quickly eroded his support within that group. 
The party may yet recover, but it will need to demonstrate 
greater discipline and focus than its leadership has been 
able to manage until now. 
 
¶7. (C) Comment: Rasmussen's re-election is good news for the 
United States.  That he will be able to govern -- barring any 
defections from his own camp -- without having to rely on the 
unpredictable New Alliance is even better news.  We can look 
forward to sustaining and deepening our close cooperation 
with the Danish government, with confidence in Rasmussen's 
stewardship of Danish policy and his commitment to 
partnership with us in confronting global challenges. 
CAIN