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OO RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
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O 091335Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3916
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
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RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COPENHAGEN 001015 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR, EUR/NB 
NSC FOR JUDY ANSLEY, MARIA GERMANO 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM MARR ECON SOCI DA
SUBJECT: PM RASMUSSEN HOLDS EDGE AHEAD OF DANISH ELECTION 
 
REF: COPENHAGEN 998 
 
Classified By: Ambassador James P. Cain, reasons 1.4b,d 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: With opinion polls showing remarkably little 
change after more than two weeks of campaigning, Danish Prime 
Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen maintains a slight edge over 
his center-left opposition rivals ahead of November 13 
parliamentary elections.  Rasmussen's 
Liberal-Conservative-Danish People's Party alliance is still 
projected to be a few seats shy of a majority, however, and 
may require the support of the centrist New Alliance party 
-- support that could prove costly and contentious for other 
coalition partners.  With about a fifth of voters still 
undecided, the distance between the two camps is close enough 
that we cannot exclude entirely the possibility of a Social 
Democratic-led victory, despite the opposition's failure to 
generate any momentum in the race so far.  End summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) The latest surveys indicate that the situation four 
days before voting is more or less what it was at the start 
of the campaign: a rough parity in support between the two 
camps, with a small advantage to the PM and with New Alliance 
determining the balance of power.  Some polls point to modest 
movement in the pro-government grouping (the latest Gallup 
poll projects 87 seats for the current government parties, 
just three short of a majority, with New Alliance), while 
others show the Social Democrats and their allies benefiting 
from New Alliance's recent decline (one survey has the 
opposition group holding an 85-82 seat edge, the first such 
result of the campaign).  The two head-to-head debates 
between PM Rasmussen and opposition leader Helle 
Thorning-Schmidt (SDP) failed to stir any significant 
movement for either camp, raising the stakes for multi-party 
televised debates scheduled for the two evenings before 
election day. 
 
¶3. (C) The main issue of the campaign remains the familiar 
debate on public services spending and tax policy (with the 
left calling for more spending and the pro-government parties 
defending their policies as fiscal good sense), but 
immigration has also emerged as a hot topic in the last days 
of the campaign.  Last week, the Social Democrats joined the 
Social Liberal Party in calling for major changes to 
Denmark's asylum policy, which would allow asylum seekers to 
live and work outside the centers to which they are now 
restricted.  The move has sparked lively debate in a country 
that had greatly tightened its immigration policies in the 
past decade, while witnessing a flood of asylum seekers pass 
through the country into neighboring Sweden.  On a tactical 
level, the opposition's new position was widely viewed as an 
attempt to lure New Alliance, which nevertheless dismissed 
the gesture out of hand.  PM Rasmussen has taken a mild tone 
in response, pledging to work toward a consensus position on 
asylum after the elections, but his allies in the nationalist 
Danish People's Party are certain to press the issue hard in 
these last four days. 
 
¶4. (C) Meanwhile, New Alliance leader Naser Khader continues 
to reinforce his image as an erratic and unpredictable 
partner.  Khader revises demands for his support every few 
days, and he has reversed himself twice about whether he 
would force PM Rasmussen into a constitutional process of 
formal negotiations (a "Queen's round") before agreeing to 
support the government.  Some of his demands, such as 
increased foreign aid and assistance for immigrants and 
schoolchildren, might be possible in part, but others, such 
as dramatically liberalizing asylum policy and investigations 
into Afghanistan and Iraq deployments, are clear non-starters 
for the government and especially for the Danish People's 
Party.  The Prime Minister's hope is that the New Alliance's 
support will continue its recent slide (now down to around 
five percent) and that a final hard push will be enough for 
his current coalition to continue in power without NA's 
backing. 
 
¶5. (C) Should neither the prime minister's coalition nor the 
opposition achieve a parliamentary majority November 13, the 
next steps in the electoral process would be largely 
determined by Naser Khader.   New Alliance could offer 
immediate formal support to PM Rasmussen, allowing the 
government to continue as is, or could withhold that support 
and force the prime minister into a "Queen's round" of talks, 
which could take a week or perhaps much longer. 
 
¶6. (C) Khader's latest position is that he will support the 
government even if agreement can't be reached on a common 
platform.  Rasmussen has signaled, however, that he doesn't 
 
COPENHAGEN 00001015  002 OF 002 
 
 
want to be the head of such an unstable, case-by-case 
coalition, or one that would result in a return to Denmark's 
"footnote period," when policy -- especially foreign and 
security policy -- was constantly undermined by opposition 
pressure.  Many party officials here are already discussing 
openly the prospect of new elections within a year if the 
next government needs to rely on New Alliance. 
 
¶7. (C) Comment: This election remains Rasmussen's to lose, 
but the prime minister could be forgiven for wondering what 
he's won if it means counting on Naser Khader.  At the same 
time, one of the characteristic features of Danish politics 
has been the ability to compromise and forge consensus when 
needed, and this may be one of those times. 
CAIN