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DE RUEHCP #1010/01 3111204
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P 071204Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3909
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 COPENHAGEN 001010 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR P, M, A, OES, PM, EEB, EUR, EUR/EX AND EUR/NB 
STATE PLEASE PASS NSF, NASA, AND USGS 
NSC FOR ANSLEY AND GERMANO 
SECDEF FOR OSD-POLICY - CATE 
EUCOM FOR J-5, J-2, AND POLAD 
COMMERCE FOR MAC/ITA - DACHER AND MARKOWITZ 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV KENV SOCI ETRD EFIN DA
SUBJECT: SHAPING GREENLAND'S FUTURE 
 
Ref: (A) 2004 COPENHAGEN 1835 (B) State 147776 
 
¶1. (SBU) This cable contains sensitive but unclassified 
and proprietary business information.  Not for internet 
publication. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Summary: Greenland is on a clear track toward 
independence, which could come more quickly than most 
outside the Kingdom of Denmark realize.  By 2009, 
Greenlandic and Danish politicians will complete a new 
self-rule agreement, the penultimate step toward full 
independence.  Significant oil, gas, and mineral 
resources -- forecast by experts but not yet proven -- 
could propel the Greenlanders after that to ultimately 
sever their formal ties to Denmark. 
 
¶3. (SBU) With Greenlandic independence glinting on the 
horizon, the U.S. has a unique opportunity to shape the 
circumstances in which an independent nation may emerge. 
We have real security and growing economic interests in 
Greenland, for which existing Joint and Permanent 
Committee mechanisms (described reftel A) may no longer 
be sufficient.  American commercial investments, our 
continuing strategic military presence, and new high- 
level scientific and political interest in Greenland 
argue for establishing a small and seasonal American 
Presence Post in Greenland's capital as soon as 
practicable.  End Summary. 
 
High Stakes for the U.S. in Greenland 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) With the planet's fastest moving glaciers, 
Greenland is an iconic adventure destination for hardy 
Congressional delegations and down-encased journalists 
looking for visual proof of climate change.  Its gleaming 
icebergs will be the backdrop for a May 2008 ministerial 
hosted by Denmark on Arctic issues (reftel B). But 
Greenland holds strategic value for the United States 
beyond its starring role in the global narrative of 
climate change.  The world's largest island, this remote 
and sparsely-populated territory of Denmark is three 
times the size of Texas but home to just 56,000 
inhabitants.  A U.S. Air Force base at Thule, 500 miles 
north of the Arctic Circle, hosts important radar that 
alerts us to incoming missiles over the Pole.  American 
investors are poised to commit $5 billion this year to 
develop hydropower and smelting facilities there. 
Exploration and development of Greenland's energy 
resources are just now beginning in earnest, with 
enormous potential for American industry. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Thanks to the Joint Committee process launched 
with the 2004 Igaliku agreements to expand bilateral 
cooperation in non-defense areas, we have reassured 
sometimes skeptical Greenlanders of our good will and 
interest in partnership.  Although part of the Danish 
kingdom and traditionally oriented toward Europe, 
Greenland nevertheless has a growing appreciation for the 
logic of geography and its own potential as part of North 
America.  Our international visitor invitations, English 
teaching programs and joint scientific/environmental 
projects have reinforced Greenlandic desires for a closer 
relationship with the United States, just as Greenland 
assumes ever-greater charge of its international 
relations and edges closer to full independence.  Our 
intensified outreach to the Greenlanders will encourage 
them to resist any false choice between the United States 
and Europe.  It will also strengthen our relationship 
with Greenland vis-a-vis the Chinese, who have shown 
increasing interest in Greenland's natural resources. 
 
From "Home Rule" to "Self Rule" 
------------------------------- 
 
COPENHAGEN 00001010  002 OF 004 
 
 
 
¶6. (U) Greenland has been self-administered under a 
"home-rule government" since 1979.  Greenland's 
government and parliament control almost all matters 
except defense and certain aspects of foreign policy, law 
enforcement, and mineral resources, which currently 
remain under the authority of Copenhagen. 
 
¶7. (U) A "self-rule commission," established in 2004 by 
Danish Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen and Greenland 
Home Rule Premier Hans Enoksen, will soon complete a new 
self-rule agreement, devolving additional authorities and 
autonomy.  The new agreement will be submitted to Danish 
and Greenlandic parliaments for ratification sometime in 
¶2008.  Following ratification and approval by referendum 
in Greenland, the new arrangement is expected to enter 
into force in 2009 on the 30th anniversary of the 
original home-rule agreement. 
 
¶8. (U) The self-rule agreement will cede to Greenland 
additional powers in foreign relations, justice and home 
affairs, and is the next-to-last step toward full 
Greenlandic independence.  The agreement will also hammer 
out important economic and financial arrangements 
regarding sharing of hydrocarbon and mineral profits, 
revenue essential to Greenlandic independence. 
 
Energy-Rich Greenland? 
---------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Negotiations on the division of Greenland's 
potential hydrocarbon and mineral wealth proved more 
difficult to solve than expected, delaying conclusion of 
the self-rule agreement by several months.  While 
Greenland has long been believed to possess significant 
hydrocarbon and mineral stocks, only in the last three to 
four years -- with the rise in world oil prices -- have 
international investors have begun to seriously explore 
Greenland's potential. 
 
¶10. (U) The Greenland government earlier this year issued 
its first licenses for oil and gas exploration off the 
western Greenlandic coast, with Chevron and Exxon-Mobil 
part of the four-company international consortium that 
won the concession.  Additional exploration licenses are 
expected to be granted later this year. 
 
¶11. (U) A recent study of hydrocarbon potential, led by 
the U.S. Geological Survey, concluded the continental 
shelf off northeast Greenland alone could harbor oil and 
gas reserves to rival Alaska's North Slope.  The USGS 
will complete additional studies on similarly promising 
areas in northern and western Greenland next year.  After 
a thousand-year interval of cooling, average temperatures 
in Greenland have in this century climbed to the level 
they were during the first Viking settlements of 986 AD. 
Whether because of man-made climate change or a massive, 
cyclical shift in weather patterns, Greenland's carbon 
riches are more easily accessible now than ever. 
 
¶12. (U) Meanwhile, the resource possibilities in 
Greenland are not limited to oil and gas.  The Greenland 
government has issued 68 mineral exploration licenses to 
international companies, and expects at least five 
significant new mines to open in the next five years, 
harvesting everything from diamonds and rubies to 
molybdenum and zinc. 
 
¶13. (U) The upcoming self-rule agreement will effectively 
split oil and gas revenue between the Greenlandic and 
Danish governments, with the Danish share used to offset 
the annual block grant to Greenland. (Greenland depends 
on an annual 500 million dollar subsidy, making up about 
half of the state budget.)  Increased hydrocarbon revenue 
 
COPENHAGEN 00001010  003 OF 004 
 
 
would eventually eliminate the Danish block grant.  After 
that payback, all revenue would belong to Greenland. 
 
A Deliberate Approach to Independence 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶14. (SBU) One senior Greenlandic official commented 
recently that his country (Greenlanders and many Danes 
alike routinely refer to Greenland as a "country") is 
"just one big oil strike away" from economic and 
political independence.  This remark captures the 
sentiments of most Greenlanders, who enthusiastically 
support independence but recognize that it may not be 
possible until the territory first reaches economic self- 
sufficiency. Even the most ardent of Greenlandic 
nationalists concede that there is no public appetite for 
achieving independence at the cost of eliminating the 
generous Danish subsidy that, for now, guarantees the 
island's economic viability. 
 
¶15. (SBU) Denmark's approach to Greenland's aspirations 
for ever-greater sovereignty, meanwhile, has been 
balanced and largely pragmatic.  Most Danish politicians 
understand and accept that Greenland is slowly moving 
toward independence.  Some privately question whether the 
Danish public will readily let go of a former colony that 
has long since become a part of Danish national identity 
and myth.  Others would be glad to see an end to the 
block grant, funds that would otherwise be spent in 
continental Denmark. 
 
¶16. (SBU) The Danish-Greenlandic relationship, while 
complex and sometimes bumpy, rests on a shared assumption 
of eventual independence for Greenland.  Even as 
Greenland's political elites negotiate ever more 
autonomy, most Greenlanders, for now, seem satisfied with 
seeking independence at a thoughtful and measured pace -- 
at least until that one big oil strike. 
 
U.S. Engagement with Greenland 
------------------------------ 
 
¶17. (SBU) Our growing security and economic interests in 
Greenland demand that we work to ensure that eventual 
independence has a positive effect on those interests and 
on the broader transatlantic relationship.  Our radar at 
Thule is now being upgraded for use in missile defense, 
while the base there also carries out important satellite 
command and control functions for the United States. 
U.S. trade and investment in Greenland is growing, with a 
multi-billion-dollar aluminum smelter and hydroelectric 
project planned by Alcoa and new oil and gas exploration 
underway by major U.S. firms. 
 
¶18. (SBU) The Joint Committee process has expanded 
cooperation among the U.S., Greenland and Denmark, 
transforming U.S. relations with Greenland with an 
impressive list of achievements.  The Joint Committee has 
promoted scientific collaboration, educational and 
cultural exchanges, tourism (including a new direct U.S.- 
Greenland air link) and direct investment (Alcoa 
officials attribute much of their success to the Joint 
Committee).  Greenlandic officials praise the Joint 
Committee process for its concrete results and for 
helping to put Greenland "on the map" in Washington. 
 
The Next Step: An American Presence Post 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶19. (SBU) Despite our success to date, the demands and 
stakes of our relationship with Greenland will continue 
to grow.  With Greenland moving closer toward 
independence, the Joint Committee process and our current 
level of contact with Greenland officials may simply not 
 
COPENHAGEN 00001010  004 OF 004 
 
 
be enough.  Sustaining and building on our achievements 
in Greenland require engagement and outreach that can 
only be accomplished in-country, on the ground.  We would 
like to create a small and seasonal American Presence 
Post (APP) in Nuuk, Greenland's capital, as soon as 
feasible. 
 
¶20. (SBU) Greenlandic officials frequently raise with us 
the possibility of an American diplomatic presence and 
would enthusiastically welcome such a move, perhaps with 
material and logistical support.  Foreign representation 
remains scant in Greenland, making the impact of a U.S. 
office all the greater.  We believe that the Danish 
government would approve our opening an APP in Greenland, 
following appropriate consultations and diplomatic 
communication. 
 
¶21. (SBU) An American Presence Post in Greenland would 
provide us with the needed diplomatic platform to seek 
out new opportunities and advance growing USG interests 
in Greenland.  Nuuk is Greenland's largest city and the 
seat of the government.  Nuuk also provides relatively 
easy access to Greenland's major air hub in Kangerlussuaq 
and from there to Thule Air Base and the town of 
Ilulissat, a favorite for the growing number of 
Congressional delegations now visiting Greenland. (Summer 
2007 saw three separate, large delegations, including one 
led by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi). 
 
¶22. (SBU) We propose to staff an APP office from post's 
current complement of American direct-hire officers.  We 
currently have four Foreign Service officers with some 
aspect of relations with Greenland as part of their 
portfolio.  We would staff an APP office in Nuuk for five 
months of the year, beginning in June (for the beginning 
of the scientific research and Congressional travel 
seasons) and extending through October (which would allow 
time for interaction with the Greenlandic parliament, 
which usually begins its activities in mid-September). 
We would send one Embassy Copenhagen officer to Nuuk for 
one-month rotations.  Post already maintains an American 
Corner in Nuuk, which we could use as an anchor for 
representational and cultural programming events.  Post 
is prepared to submit APP cost estimates for the 
Department's review.  Costs to be funded by the 
Department would include five months of TDY support plus 
set-up costs.  We would explore with the Greenlandic 
government whether they could also contribute office 
space or other cost offsets for an APP.  Post can also 
work with our colleagues in the Embassy's USAF Detachment 
1 office (which handles contracting for Thule Air Base), 
to leverage their existing resources and infrastructure 
in Greenland and minimize costs. 
 
¶23. (SBU) The time is now to begin investing in a 
flexible, low-cost, official U.S. presence in Greenland. 
Establishment of an APP in Nuuk would allow us to advance 
our strategic and commercial agenda directly and to shape 
the image of the U.S. in Greenland as never before.  For 
now, we can offer Greenland an American perspective. 
Down the road, we must be prepared for the day when we 
welcome a new and independent neighbor, one that will be 
a true partner within the transatlantic community of the 
21st century. 
CAIN