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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CANBERRA 001683 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
NOFORN 
 
FOR PM ACTING A/S STEPHEN D. MULL FROM AMBASSADOR MCCALLUM 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2017 
TAGS: PREL PGOV OTRA AS
SUBJECT: SCENE SETTER FOR YOUR VISIT TO AUSTRALIA 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Robert D. McCallum for reasons 1.4 a,b,and d. 
 
 SUMMARY 
------- 
¶1. (C/NF) Your visit comes on the heels of Australia's 
November 24 federal election in which voters decisively 
rejected John Howard and his Liberal/National coalition 
government after more than eleven years in office, and 
embraced opposition Australian Labor Party (ALP) leader Kevin 
Rudd.  Rudd, a former diplomat and longtime Shadow Foreign 
Minister, campaigned on a platform of new leadership with a 
focus on such domestic issues as labor laws, climate change, 
education and health.  Rudd will not announce his cabinet 
until later this week, likely during your visit, but the 
general outlines of his foreign policy are known. 
 
¶2. (C/NF) We expect a Rudd government to exhibit strong 
continuity with the Howard government in many foreign policy 
issues of strategic interest to us, and to reflect close 
parallels in the U.S. approach and thinking to major global 
challenges.  Rudd and the ALP are committed to the alliance 
with the United States, including a continued close defense 
and intelligence relationship, but have signaled that 
Australia will adopt a more independent stance towards us 
than John Howard.  Issues on which Rudd's policies are likely 
to diverge from those of his predecessor and the United 
States include Iraq, climate change and China.  He is likely 
to be strongly supportive on tough arms control and 
nonproliferation issues, including denuclearization of North 
Korea and Iran, but he has flagged his opposition to the 
U.S.-India civil nuclear agreement because India has not 
signed the NPT.  We can expect Australia's continued 
contributions to military operations targeting the Taliban 
and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan.  End Summary. 
 
U.S. Alliance 
------------- 
¶3. (C/NF) The Australian Labor Party (ALP) takes credit for 
establishing the alliance with the United States during World 
War II, which ultimately led to the 1951 Australia-New 
Zealand-United States (ANZUS) Treaty, and the ALP continues 
to include support for the U.S. alliance as one of the three 
pillars of the party platform.  Rudd, a former diplomat, has 
made clear his personal commitment to the alliance, and was 
quick to reach out to the United States in his election 
victory speech - the only foreign country he mentioned.  Rudd 
stressed in his campaign that he would be more independent 
from the United States than his predecessor, however, and has 
already flagged some key policy differences. 
 
Iraq 
---- 
¶4. (C/NF) The first test of the Rudd government's handling of 
the alliance will be on Iraq.  Rudd has pledged to withdraw 
approximately 550 combat troops comprising the Overwatch 
Battle Group from southern Iraq, while leaving in place a 
100-man security detachment for its diplomatic mission in 
Baghdad, an Army training team of similar size, and naval and 
air patrol assets based in neighboring countries that support 
operations in both Iraq and Afghanistan.  While the 
Australian combat troops have a passive, back-up role to 
Iraqi security forces, rather than an active combat role, 
QIraqi security forces, rather than an active combat role, 
they have served as an important symbol of Coalition unity 
and of Australia's support of the U.S. in the Global War on 
Terror.  Rudd has nuanced his withdrawal pledge, promising to 
consult in advance with the Iraqis, the United States and 
other allies.  Beyond the issue of the combat troops, the 
Australians are keenly interested to work with the U.S. and 
Iraqis as the Iraq UN mandate lapses to ensure their forces 
in Iraq remain under 
a legitimate authorization, whether it is a follow-on UN 
mandate, or some other agreement the U.S. negotiates with 
Iraq. 
 
¶5. (C/NF) Rudd realizes that an unstable and insecure Iraq is 
not in the world's interest or Australia's.  We believe that 
Rudd will be sensitive to the potential adverse consequences 
to Coalition unity and will be willing to consider 
alternatives that allow him to keep his campaign promise 
while minimizing the potential harm of any Australian action. 
 
CANBERRA 00001683  002 OF 003 
 
 
 For instance, Rudd has indicated he is open to increasing 
the training contribution in Iraq, even as he withdraws 
combat elements, so we need to press him to follow through on 
that. 
 
¶6. (C/NF) We will encourage Rudd and his senior ministers to 
visit Iraq as early as possible to see for themselves the 
positive developments, especially on the security front. Such 
a visit will allow them to understand better the dimensions 
of the tasks that remain.  We can then argue more effectively 
for the assumption by Australia of other supporting roles, 
such as the expansion of its Army Training Team or the 
creation of an Australian Provincial Reconstruction Team. 
 
Afghanistan 
----------- 
¶7. (C/NF) With respect to the War on Terror, there has been 
bipartisan support in Australia up to now for its troop 
commitment in Afghanistan.  The Labor distinction between 
Iraq and Afghanistan is supposedly based upon the training of 
the Bali bombers in Afghanistan and the impact of the Afghan 
drug trade on Australia, as well as on the lack of a UN 
mandate for Operation Iraqi Freedom.  We can expect Rudd to 
reaffirm Australia's commitment to its mission there, 
although Australian public opinion may begin to turn against 
Afghanistan, too.  Three Australian soldiers have been killed 
in Afghanistan over the past two months.  There is a 
possibility that, if Rudd withdraws combat troops from Iraq, 
some could be redeployed to augment the Australian force in 
Afghanistan.  As with Iraq, we will press for Rudd and his 
senior ministers to make an early visit to Afghanistan to 
assess conditions on the ground, and urge him to consider a 
larger security role and additional reconstruction assistance. 
 
Climate Change 
-------------- 
¶8. (C/NF) The second area of major disagreement by Labor with 
U.S. policy is climate change, a topic that resonates 
strongly in Australia where many see a direct causal link 
with a series of recent, very severe droughts.  Rudd may want 
to distance himself publicly from the United States on this 
issue, as we are widely - and mistakenly - viewed in 
Australia as being opposed to meaningful greenhouse gas 
reductions, but a Rudd Government will almost certainly want 
to continue close cooperation with us on effective ways for 
meaningful progress in the future.  Beyond a pragmatic desire 
to find the least costly way to address climate change, 
Australia should continue to be a valuable partner in 
international fora because of its dependence on coal for 
domestic electricity production, significant coal exports, 
and desire to continue its remarkable economic growth. 
 
¶9. (C/NF) A new Labor government is committed to immediate 
ratification of the Kyoto Protocol.  Ratification is 
relatively cost-free because Australia will come very close 
to meeting its Kyoto targets.  Rudd has announced that he 
will personally head up Australia's climate policy and will 
attend the Bali meeting in early December to begin the 
process of hammering out a post-2012 climate change 
framework.  Rudd has pledged that Australia would not sign a 
post-Kyoto framework that does not include commitments to 
Qpost-Kyoto framework that does not include commitments to 
reduction targets by developing countries such as China and 
India.  Current GOA climate change negotiators do not expect 
to see a significant departure under the new Rudd government 
from the Howard government's key positions at Bali, and 
believe that close cooperation between the U.S. and Australia 
would continue in that process. 
 
China 
----- 
¶10. (C/NF) A third dynamic in the U.S. relationship with a 
new Labor government is China.  Rudd will almost certainly 
bring the issue of China's role in the region and beyond into 
his early discussions with us.  He, as most Australians, 
views the Chinese export market as a critical component of 
Australia's growth now and well into the future.  In 
addition, Rudd is a Mandarin-speaking former diplomat who 
served in Beijing.  He is thought likely to be more sensitive 
to Chinese concerns on issues ranging from regional security 
to human rights.  He objected to the Howard-Abe March 2007 
 
CANBERRA 00001683  003 OF 003 
 
 
Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation with Japan and to 
quadrilateral discussions between the U.S., Australia, Japan 
and India because of sensitivities toward China.  However, 
Rudd shares our position that China needs to be encouraged to 
be a responsible stakeholder in the international system, and 
Rudd has previously expressed support for the U.S. in any 
conflict over Taiwan.  Judging by his public statements and 
private assertions, Australia's relationship with China is 
unlikely to change with Rudd in power. 
 
Defense Cooperation and National Security Policy 
------------------------------------ 
¶13. (C/NF) Australia is a large consumer of U.S. defense 
hardware and technology, consistent with its objective of 
interoperability.  It has selected the Aegis Combat Control 
System for its three air warfare destroyers that will come 
into service in 2013.  The F/A-18 aircraft is the principal 
combat aircraft of the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF), 
backed by the U.S.-built F-111 strike aircraft.  Australia 
will acquire 24 Boeing F/A-18F Super Hornet fighters to 
maintain an interim strike capability between the phase-out 
of the F-111s by 2010, and the projected acquisition of up to 
100 F-35 Joint Strike Fighter aircraft during 2013-2020.  The 
RAAF has purchased four C-17 strategic airlift aircraft, and 
is acquiring Boeing's Airborne Early Warning and Control 
system as the airborne platform.  Recent sales to the Royal 
Australian Army include the M1A1 tank, as well as Hellfire 
and JAVELIN missiles.  A current focus of joint efforts is to 
prepare for implementation of the U.S.-Australia Defense 
Cooperation Treaty, signed by President Bush on the margins 
of APEC, which seeks to ease transfer of defense equipment 
and technology. 
 
¶14. (C/NF) Except for Iraq, the incoming ALP government has 
not yet developed a detailed defense and security agenda. 
While in opposition, however, it generally supported the 
defense and security posture developed by the Howard 
government, including most big ticket defense expenditures 
and military interventions to restore order in East Timor, 
the Solomon Islands and Tonga.  In recent remarks, Rudd has 
reiterated his commitment to a strong Australian Defense 
Force, maintaining military dominance in the immediate 
region, keeping defense spending at a minimum annual growth 
of three percent, and supporting a force structure that will 
enable Australia to contribute to global operations with 
friends, allies and the United Nations.  He has called for an 
update of the 2000 Defence White Paper to re-assess strategic 
requirements and to ensure that military expenditures are in 
line with the desired force structure.  The White Paper will 
examine deteriorating circumstances of Pacific Island states, 
the long-term trajectory of militant Islamism and associated 
terrorist groups in Southeast Asia, and WMD proliferation in 
the Asia-Pacific region. At this point, it is not clear how 
the study may impact on planned defense acquisitions.  Given 
the ALP's general lack of expertise on military issues - 
Shadow Defence Minister Joel Fitzgibbon previously held 
QShadow Defence Minister Joel Fitzgibbon previously held 
economic and finance portfolios - we expect the new 
government will take some time to get fully briefed on the 
broad range of bilateral defense issues, with possible delays 
in some programs. 
 
Other Issues 
------------ 
¶15. (C/NF) Finally, Australia under Rudd will likely continue 
to be a strong ally of the United States on 
counterproliferation and arms control issues.  He is likely 
to continue Australia's support for our position on the North 
Korea and Iran nuclear issues.  However, he has signaled his 
opposition to the U.S.-India civil nuclear agreement and to 
Howard's policy decision to sell uranium to India.  Rudd 
argues that the policy undermines the Nuclear 
Nonproliferation Treaty, which India has not signed.  Of 
particular concern to us is that the Rudd government may 
block consensus in the Nuclear Suppliers Group to the 123 
Agreement, a precondition for the civil-nuclear deal. 
 
MCCALLUM