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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CANBERRA 001682 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
NOFORN 
 
FOR UNDER SECRETARY BURNS FROM AMBASSADOR MCCALLUM 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2017 
TAGS: PREL PGOV OTRA AS
SUBJECT: SCENE SETTER FOR YOUR VISIT TO AUSTRALIA 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Robert D. McCallum for reasons 1.4 a, b, d. 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
¶1. (C/NF) Your visit comes on the heels of Australia's 
November 24 federal election in which voters decisively 
rejected John Howard and his Liberal/National coalition 
government after more than eleven years in office, and 
embraced opposition Australian Labor Party (ALP) leader Kevin 
Rudd.  Rudd, a former diplomat and longtime Shadow Foreign 
Minister, campaigned on a platform of new leadership with a 
focus on such domestic issues as labor laws, climate change, 
education and health.  Rudd will not announce his cabinet 
until later this week, on the eve of your visit, but the 
general outlines of his foreign policy are known. 
 
¶2. (C/NF) We expect a Rudd government to exhibit strong 
continuity with the Howard government in many foreign policy 
issues of strategic interest to us, and to reflect close 
parallels in the U.S. approach and thinking to major global 
challenges.  Rudd and the ALP are committed to the alliance 
with the United States, including a continued close defense 
and intelligence relationship, but have signaled that 
Australia will adopt a more independent stance towards us 
than John Howard.  Issues on which Rudd's policies are likely 
to diverge from those of his predecessor and the United 
States include Iraq, climate change and China.  He is likely 
to be strongly supportive on tough arms control and 
nonproliferation issues, including denuclearization of North 
Korea and Iran, but he has flagged his opposition to the 
U.S.-India civil nuclear agreement because India has not 
signed the NPT.  We can expect Australia's continued 
contributions to military operations targeting the Taliban 
and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan.  End Sum 
mary. 
 
U.S. Alliance 
------------- 
¶3. (C/NF) The Australian Labor Party (ALP) takes credit for 
establishing the alliance with the United States during World 
War II, which ultimately led to the 1951 Australia-New 
Zealand-United States (ANZUS) Treaty, and the ALP continues 
to include support for the U.S. alliance as one of the three 
pillars of the party platform.  Rudd, a former diplomat, has 
made clear his personal commitment to the alliance, and was 
quick to reach out to the United States in his election 
victory speech - the only foreign country he mentioned.  Rudd 
stressed in his campaign that he would be more independent 
from the United States than his predecessor, however, and has 
already flagged some key policy differences.  You should 
reciprocate expected expressions of strong support for the 
alliance and commitments to strengthening it, and should urge 
that the new foreign and defense ministers commit to 
U.S.-Australia Ministerial (AUSMIN) consultations early in 
¶2008. 
 
Iraq 
---- 
¶4. (C/NF) The first test of the Rudd government's handling of 
the alliance will be on Iraq.  Rudd has pledged to withdraw 
approximately 550 combat troops comprising the Overwatch 
Battle Group from southern Iraq, while leaving in place a 
100-man security detachment for its diplomatic mission in 
Q100-man security detachment for its diplomatic mission in 
Baghdad, an Army training team of similar size, and naval and 
air patrol assets based in neighboring countries that support 
operations in both Iraq and Afghanistan.  While the 
Australian combat troops have a passive, back-up role to 
Iraqi security forces, rather than an active combat role, 
they have served as an important symbol of Coalition unity 
and of Australia's support of the U.S. in the Global War on 
Terror.  Rudd has nuanced his withdrawal pledge, promising to 
consult in advance with the Iraqis, the United States and 
other allies.  Beyond the issue of the combat troops, the 
Australians are keenly interested to work with the U.S. and 
Iraqis as the Iraq UN mandate lapses to ensure their forces 
in Iraq remain under a legitimate authorization, whether it 
is a follow-on UN mandate, or some other agreement the U.S. 
negotiates with Iraq. 
 
 
CANBERRA 00001682  002 OF 003 
 
 
¶5. (C/NF) In your discussions with Rudd, you will have an 
opportunity to elicit greater details of his plan, to hold 
him to his promise to consult with us before withdrawing any 
troops, and urge that any withdrawal only be done in 
conjunction with the reduction of our surge troops.  Rudd 
realizes that an unstable and insecure Iraq is not in the 
world's interest or Australia's.  We believe that Rudd will 
be sensitive to the potential adverse consequences to 
Coalition unity and will be willing to consider alternatives 
that allow him to keep his campaign promise while minimizing 
the potential harm of any Australian action.  For instance, 
Rudd has indicated he is open to increasing the training 
contribution in Iraq, even as he withdraws combat elements, 
so we need to press him to follow through on that. 
 
¶6. (C/NF) You should encourage Rudd and his senior ministers 
to visit Iraq as early as possible to see for themselves the 
positive developments, especially on the security front. 
Such a visit will allow them to understand better the 
dimensions of the tasks that remain.  We can then argue more 
effectively for the assumption by Australia of other 
supporting roles, such as the expansion of its Army Training 
Team or the creation of an Australian Provincial 
Reconstruction Team. 
 
Afghanistan 
----------- 
¶7. (C/NF) With respect to the War on Terror, there has been 
bipartisan support in Australia up to now for its troop 
commitment in Afghanistan.  The Labor distinction between 
Iraq and Afghanistan is supposedly based upon the training of 
the Bali bombers in Afghanistan and the impact of the Afghan 
drug trade on Australia, as well as on the lack of a UN 
mandate for Operation Iraqi Freedom.  We can expect Rudd to 
reaffirm Australia's commitment to its mission there, 
although Australian public opinion may begin to turn against 
Afghanistan, too.  Three Australian soldiers have been killed 
in Afghanistan over the past two months.  There is a 
possibility that, if Rudd withdraws combat troops from Iraq, 
some could be redeployed to augment the Australian force in 
Afghanistan.  As with Iraq, you should press for Rudd and his 
senior ministers to make an early visit to Afghanistan to 
assess conditions on the ground, and to urge him to consider 
a larger security role and additional reconstruction 
assistance. 
 
Climate Change 
-------------- 
¶8. (C/NF) The second area of major disagreement by Labor with 
U.S. policy is climate change, a topic that resonates 
strongly in Australia where many see a direct causal link 
with a series of recent, very severe droughts.  Rudd may want 
to distance himself publicly from the United States on this 
issue, as we are widely - and mistakenly - viewed in 
Australia as being opposed to meaningful greenhouse gas 
reductions, but a Rudd Government will almost certainly want 
to continue close cooperation with us on effective ways for 
meaningful progress in the future.  Beyond a pragmatic desire 
to find the least costly way to address climate change, 
Australia should continue to be a valuable partner in 
QAustralia should continue to be a valuable partner in 
international fora because of its dependence on coal for 
domestic electricity production, significant coal exports, 
and desire to continue its remarkable economic growth. 
 
¶9. (C/NF) A new Labor government is committed to immediate 
ratification of the Kyoto Protocol.  Ratification is 
relatively cost-free because Australia will come very close 
to meeting its Kyoto targets.  Rudd has announced that he 
will personally head up Australia's climate policy and will 
attend the Bali meeting in early December to begin the 
process of hammering out a post-2012 climate change 
framework.  Rudd has pledged that Australia would not sign a 
post-Kyoto framework that does not include commitments to 
reduction targets by developing countries such as China and 
India.  GOA climate change negotiators do not expect to see a 
significant departure under the new Rudd government from the 
Howard government's key positions at Bali, and believe that 
close cooperation between the U.S. and Australia would 
continue in that process. 
 
CANBERRA 00001682  003 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶10. (C/NF) We recommend a low-key public posture on 
Australia's ratification of the Kyoto Protocol (as it is 
mostly symbolic for domestic political consumption), while 
making clear our desire to work closely with Australia to 
develop viable and effective ways to address climate change 
post-2012 without sacrificing economic development. 
 
China 
----- 
¶11. (C/NF) A third dynamic in the U.S. relationship with a 
new Labor government is China.  Rudd will almost certainly 
bring the issue of China's role in the region and beyond into 
his early discussions with us.  He, as most Australians, 
views the Chinese export market as a critical component of 
Australia's growth now and well into the future.  In 
addition, Rudd is a Mandarin-speaking former diplomat who 
served in Beijing.  He is thought likely to be more sensitive 
to Chinese concerns on issues ranging from regional security 
to human rights.  He objected to the Howard-Abe March 2007 
Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation with Japan and to 
quadrilateral discussions between the U.S., Australia, Japan 
and India because of sensitivities toward China.  However, 
Rudd shares our position that China needs to be encouraged to 
be a responsible stakeholder in the international system, and 
Rudd has previously expressed support for the U.S. in any 
conflict over Taiwan.  Judging by his public statements and 
private assertions, Australia's relationship with China is 
unlikely to change with Rudd in power. 
 
Other Issues 
------------ 
¶13. (C/NF) Finally, Australia under Rudd will likely continue 
to be a strong ally of the United States on 
counterproliferation and arms control issues.  He is likely 
to continue Australia's support for our position on the North 
Korea and Iran nuclear issues.  However, he has signaled his 
opposition to the U.S.-India civil nuclear agreement and to 
Howard's policy decision to sell uranium to India.  Rudd 
argues that the policy undermines the Nuclear 
Nonproliferation Treaty, which India has not signed.  Of 
particular concern to us is that the Rudd government may 
block consensus in the Nuclear Suppliers Group to the 123 
Agreement, a precondition for the civil-nuclear deal. 
 
MCCALLUM