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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CANBERRA 001678 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/25/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PREL AS
SUBJECT: LABOR WINS MANDATE FOR CHANGE IN AUSTRALIAN 
ELECTION 
 
REF: A) CANBERRA 1671 B) CANBERRA 1462 
 
CANBERRA 00001678  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Classified By: James F. Cole for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C/NF) SUMMARY:  With the polls consistently favoring 
Australian Labor Party (ALP) leader Kevin Rudd over Prime 
Minister John Howard's Liberal-National Party Coalition since 
last December, it was no surprise that the ALP won the 
November 24 federal parliamentary election (ref A).  The 
overall national vote swing in favor of the ALP was 6.08 
percent, giving them at least 23 more seats and a total of 83 
in the 150-seat parliament.  With seven seats still undecided 
as of Monday, November 26, analysts believe the ALP's seat 
total could ultimately reach 86-88, or a majority of 10-12 
seats.  The Coalition will retain its control of the Senate 
until July, however, after which neither party will have a 
majority and the Green Party will become the swing party in 
the Parliament's upper house. 
 
¶2. (C/NF) Beyond the predictable switch to Labor, there were 
three unexpected results:  Prime Minister John Howard lost 
his seat in Sydney; the swing to the ALP in Queensland, 
Rudd's home state, was a huge 8.3 percent and delivered at 
least nine seats to Labor; and the Liberal Party lost more 
seats than it expected to in the state of Victoria.  In 
another surprise the day after the election, Peter Costello, 
outgoing Treasurer and heir-apparent to the leadership of the 
Liberal Party, announced he would not be a candidate for 
party leader (septel).  Ex-Environment Minister Malcolm 
Turnbull, who performed strongly in his marginal seat on a 
day the tide was running against his party, and ex-Health 
Minister Tony Abbott have announced they are candidates for 
Opposition Leader.  Also on Sunday, Rudd said new government 
ministers would be chosen on Thursday, November 29.  The 
swearing in will occur the next day or early the following 
week. END SUMMARY 
 
RUDD WINS WITH A LARGER VOTE SWING THAN HOWARD'S IN 1996 
 
¶3. (U) Although the polls had given Kevin Rudd a steady 8-10 
point lead over PM Howard since he became ALP leader last 
December, most political observers expected the difference to 
narrow before the election.  In the end, the overall margin 
of victory was 6.08 percent, higher than the 5.1 swing won by 
Mr. Howard in 1996, but much less than the polls predicted. 
If the vote swing had been uniform, the ALP should have 
picked up 23 seats.  With the higher swing in Queensland, 
however, the total seat gain for Labor is likely to be 
greater.  Given that the ALP already held most of the seats 
in Victoria, local pundits believed it would be difficult for 
Labor to pick up seats from popular, experienced Liberal 
Party incumbents.  On the day, however, the 5.8 percent swing 
in Victoria delivered three and possibly four seats to the 
ALP, one more than the three that would have fallen with a 
uniform swing.  Seven seats are currently too close to call 
but with six of those being Liberal seats, the ALP's total is 
likely to surpass 85. 
 
AMONG LIBERAL RISING STARS BROUGH FALLS BUT TURNBULL SURVIVES 
 
¶4. (SBU) Four, and possibly five Liberal Party ministers lost 
their seats Saturday night.  Prime Minister John Howard was 
the highest profile casualty for the Liberal Party.  His seat 
of Bennelong had become more marginal with a redistricting 
after 2004 that had added areas with more traditional Labor 
voters.  With a photogenic high-profile opponent in Maxine 
Qvoters.  With a photogenic high-profile opponent in Maxine 
McKew and a strong swing to Labor in New South Wales (NSW), 
Howard could not resist the tide of change, although the 
final result was 51-48 percent.  Perhaps more damaging for 
the Liberal Party was the loss by Indigenous Affairs Minister 
Mal Brough in the outer-Brisbane seat of Longman.  Brough, a 
young, rising star within the Queensland Liberal Party, had 
gained national attention with the Government's intervention 
in the indigenous community in the Northern Territories.  As 
popular as he was, however, he held a seat with a volatile 
electorate that was sensitive to interest rate increases and 
open to the higher cost-of-living arguments of the Labor 
Party.  He could not survive the big swing in favor of 
Queensland native son Kevin Rudd and lost his seat. 
Recognizing his charisma, the Liberal Party had wanted to put 
him in a safer seat before the election and now the 
disappointed Brough is talking about leaving politics. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull bucked a 6.52 
swing against the Liberal Party in NSW to retain his seat in 
 
CANBERRA 00001678  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
Sydney by 53.4 to 46.6 percent.  A popular, charismatic 
figure in Sydney with immense personal wealth, Turnbull 
fought off a strong pro-environment sentiment in his seat to 
beat a Jewish opponent in a district with a substantial 
number of Jewish voters.  It was a significant personal 
victory for him, and leaves him a good position to challenge 
for the Liberal Party leadership now that Peter Costello has 
withdrawn from consideration. 
 
THE SENATE CHANGES - BUT ONLY IN JULY 
 
¶6. (U) One half of the Senate was up for reelection.  New 
senators however, only take their seats on July 1, unless the 
senator is from one of the territories, in which cases he or 
she is seated immediately.  With Liberal Senator Gary 
Humphries being reelected in the Australian Capital 
Territory, the Coalition retains its majority until July 1. 
At that point neither the ALP nor the Coalition will have a 
majority and Rudd will need support from the Green Party, 
the Family First senator, and a new, independent senator from 
South Australia to pass legislation.  Although difficult to 
accurately project so soon after the election, analysts are 
predicting the Coalition will hold 37 seats, the ALP 32, the 
Green Party 5, Family First 1, and one independent.  The 
Australian Democrats lost all four of its senators and is no 
longer a viable political party. 
 
COSTELLO BOWS OUT 
 
¶7. (C/NF) In his concession speech, Howard had nominated 
Deputy Leader Peter Costello as his successor as head of the 
Liberal Party.  The next day, however, Costello announced he 
would not seek or accept the leadership of the Liberal Party. 
 Having run as part of the leadership team with Howard, 
Costello likely realized he had also been repudiated by the 
election result.  Not as popular as Howard in the Liberal 
Party or in the country at large, and faced with leading a 
political organization that is broke, demoralized and 
out-of-power everywhere in Australia, Costello likely 
realized that his prospects in the private sector were 
brighter than his chances of winning back power in three 
years. 
 
NEW MINISTERS 
 
¶8. (SBU) At a press conference the day after the election, 
Rudd announced that he would choose the members of his 
ministry and that the ALP caucus would meet in Canberra on 
November 29 to vote on the list.  In the past, the ALP caucus 
has picked the members of the ministry with an eye to 
satisfying the different factions within the party.  The 
leader then slotted those chosen into the portfolios of his 
choice.  During the campaign, Rudd announced his economic 
team (ref B) of Wayne Swan as Treasurer, Lindsay Tanner as 
Minister for Finance, and Julia Gillard, Workplace Relations, 
and stated that he would chose the members of his cabinet. 
Given his decisive victory, no one doubts that Rudd will be 
able to name the members of his front bench. 
 
A MANDATE FOR CHANGE 
 
¶9. (C/NF) COMMENT:  This was a decisive victory for Rudd that 
mostly reflected the Australian public's desire for change 
after 11 years of the Howard Government.  He presented 
himself as a new - but conservative - leader who would be a 
safe pair of hands.  Voters judged John Howard's workplace 
relations reform ("WorkChoices") as too harsh.  His inaction 
on climate change was also a positive issue for the ALP. 
Moreover, Rudd ran a better-resourced and much more 
disciplined campaign than the Coalition.  Rudd has already 
Qdisciplined campaign than the Coalition.  Rudd has already 
vowed to sign Kyoto and begin drafting legislation to 
overturn WorkChoices as his first orders of business. 
Ultimately, Rudd won the election by keeping the more extreme 
elements of his party quiet and selling the message that 
voting for him represented positive change without economic 
risk.  If Rudd can show that he can be a competent steward of 
the economy and resist pressure by the unions and Labor's 
left-wing (Unions NSW have already released a list of 
demands), he could enjoy an extended term of office in a 
country that does not change governments very often. 
 
MCCALLUM