P 160648Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY CANBERRA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8563
INFO AMCONSUL MELBOURNE PRIORITY 
AMCONSUL PERTH PRIORITY 
AMCONSUL SYDNEY PRIORITY 
CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L CANBERRA 001645 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/2017 
TAGS: PGOV AS
SUBJECT: RUDD EIGHT DAYS FROM A LIKELY ELECTION VICTORY 
 
REF: A) CANBERRA 1632 B) CANBERRA 1642 
 
Classified By: Deputy Political Counselor John W. Crowley, for reasons 
1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
 ¶1. (C/NF) SUMMARY: With only eight days left before the 
November 24 federal election, and with a new A.C. Nielsen 
poll that gives Australian Labor Party (ALP) leader Kevin 
Rudd an eight-point lead over Prime Minister John Howard's 
Coalition, the chances that Howard can close the gap look 
increasingly remote.  The Coalition had hoped that the 
six-week election campaign would erase the steady 8-10 point 
lead the ALP has maintained in the polls over the past year 
but it has not happened.  The Coalition and Labor campaign 
launches during November 12 and November 14 neither helped 
the Coalition nor hurt Labor.  Importantly, the ALP looks set 
to capture at least 20 new seats, four more than the 16 seats 
it needs to form the next government.  The Coalition is 
continuing its strategy of running strong local campaigns to 
counter the Rudd juggernaut, but signs are that it is having 
mixed results at best.  A majority of Australians seen to 
have stopped listening to Howard and decided to go with Rudd. 
 Howard, so long the Coalition's major strength, is now seen 
as a major liability who has been in office too long. Rumors 
are circulating that Howard is saving a major announcement 
for next week.  If he delivers a blockbuster, and the polls 
close the gap to six points, there may be a glimmer of hope 
the Liberal/National Coalition can just hang on, but the odds 
don't favor it.   END SUMMARY 
 
EYES TURN TO QUEENSLAND 
 
¶2. (C/NF)) With both parties' official campaign launches 
occurring in Brisbane this week (refs A and B), Howard and 
Rudd targeted the key battleground state of Queensland. 
Along with South Australia, Queensland has been the ALP's 
worst performing state during the Howard era.  The ALP only 
holds six of 29 seats in that state.  However, with Rudd a 
native Queenslander and the voters in the mood for a change, 
ALP strategists are aiming to win at least six extra seats 
(which gets them almost halfway to the 16 they need for a 
parliamentary majority).  What makes the battle in Queensland 
interesting is that only three Coalition seats - Bonner, 
Moreton, and Blair - fall under the generally accepted 
marginal seat threshold of six percent.  The ALP will almost 
certainly win these seats but Labor strategists also believe 
there are seven other Coalition seats which are more 
vulnerable than they appear.  The ALP should win at least 
half.  Seats being targeted are Bowman, Longman, Petrie, and 
Ryan in greater Brisbane, and Flynn, Herbert, and Leichardt 
further up the Queensland coast. 
 
THE POLLS STILL FAVOR RUDD 
 
¶3. (SBU) As has been the case virtually all year, the polls 
show the ALP with an 8-10 point lead on the two-party 
preferred vote.  A Newspoll conducted November 9-11 showed 
the ALP increasing its lead on the two party preferred from 
53-47 to 55-45.  A Nielsen Poll conducted November 12-14 has 
the ALP's lead on the two-party preferred vote decreasing 
from 55-45 to 54-46, however, the Nielson pollster said that 
while the Coalition had made up ground since the campaign 
started, it was "not yet enough to significantly reduce 
Labor's lead."  A Newspoll due next Monday or Tuesday should 
signal if there is any last-minute momemtum. 
 
A 20 SEAT GAIN? 
 
¶4. (C/NF) The ALP needs a net gain of 16 seats to win a 
parliamentary majority and become the government.  The ALP 
Qparliamentary majority and become the government.  The ALP 
now has 14 seats all but won and has a 50-50 chance in 14 
other seats.  At this stage, an ALP net gain of around 20 
seats appears the most likely scenario.  Before the ALP 
launch in Brisbane, a Labor MP confided to poloff that a net 
gain of around 20 seats was what the ALP was expecting as 
well.  While this would give the ALP a small parliamentary 
majority, it would be a landslide election victory. 
 
COMMENT: COALITION CAMPAIGN FIZZLES 
 
¶5. (C/NF) Unless Kevin Rudd makes a major blunder (something 
he has avoided so far), an ALP government will likely be 
elected on November 24.  The Coalition's massive negative 
advertising campaign against the unions appears to have had 
little effect.  Some in the Coalition still maintain that the 
ALP's vote is "soft" and that there will be a late swing back 
to the Coalition but if it were to have happened, some signs 
should have emerged in the polls by now.  The Coalition is 
struggling to sell a message as to why it should remain in 
 
office after over 11 years in power.  This has been 
exacerbated by an advertising campaign that has been negative 
and has not sold its campaign promises, many of which have 
considerable merit.  The Coalition's education tax rebate and 
housing affordability measures, announced at its launch (ref 
A) are areas of clear policy difference between the Coalition 
and ALP but there has been no "follow through" by the 
Coalition.  Howard, meanwhile, has lost the support of young 
people on issues such as workplace relations reforms 
("WorkChoices"), Iraq and climate change.  WorkChoices and 
interest rate increases are seen as a betrayal of trust by 
the lower-middle class "Howard Battler" families who had 
supported him in the past.  His offer to step down midway 
through a new term if re-elected, intended to address 
perceptions of stale leadership, backfired badly.  The main 
factor that appears to have sealed Howard's fate, however, is 
voter sentiment that "it's time" for a change.  We have heard 
rumors from several sources that Howard is saving a 
blockbuster announcement for the last week.  If next week's 
Newspoll has the Coalition closing the gap to at least 53-47, 
there may be a glimmer of hope as some Coalition strategists 
believe it can scrape over the line with 48 per cent of the 
two-party preferred vote.  At this point however, bettors in 
Australia have made the ALP strong favorites to cross the 
line ahead of the Coalition on November 24 and there is no 
reason to believe they have picked the wrong horse. 
 
MCCALLUM