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P 020706Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY CANBERRA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8509
INFO AMCONSUL MELBOURNE PRIORITY 
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AMCONSUL SYDNEY PRIORITY 
THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI PRIORITY
NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L CANBERRA 001604 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/01/2017 
TAGS: PGOV AS
SUBJECT: HOWARD GAINS LITTLE AT CAMPAIGN MIDPOINT 
 
REF: A) CANBERRA 1588 B) CANBERRA 1596 C) CANBERRA 
 
     1595 D) CANBERRA 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor James F. Cole for reasons 1.4 (b) an 
d (d). 
 
¶1. (C/NF) SUMMARY: At the halfway point of the campaign, 
there is little indication that the Coalition is turning its 
position around.  Buoyed by a better Newspoll (that cut the 
Australian Labor Party's (ALP) lead over the Coalition to 
eight points) and a gaffe by the ALP's environment minister, 
this week had started well for the Howard Government. 
However, the Health Minister's denigration of an asbestos 
victim and his late arrival and testy performance at a debate 
with his ALP counterpart managed to end whatever momentum the 
Coalition might have had.  The ALP ended the week with the 
release of another "me too with a twist" policy, this time 
for the elderly, which it hopes will halt the Coalition's 
apparent growing strength among older voters.  A poll 
released Friday, November 2, showed the Coalition had not 
gained ground since the campaign began.  While the Government 
leads on the issues of who the voters trust to manage the 
economy and keep interest rates low, the ALP is still leading 
55-45 on the two-party preferred vote.  Howard remains 
popular but ALP leader Kevin Rudd is polling significantly 
higher.  The big issue of next week will be another predicted 
lifting of interest rates by the Reserve Bank.  Both Monday's 
Newspoll and today's Nielsen poll indicate that voters will 
not blame the Government for the increase but this could 
still be the defining issue of the campaign as it goes to the 
heart of the Coalition's key political strength - economic 
management.  END SUMMARY 
 
MIXED WEEK FOR BOTH PARTIES 
 
¶2. (SBU) After a better-than-expected Newspoll and mix-up on 
climate change policy by the ALP's environment spokesman 
Peter Garrett (see refs A and C), the Coalition had begun 
week three of the six-week campaign with the political wind 
at its back. A series of nationally-televised lunch-time 
debates between senior Government ministers and their ALP 
counterparts began with strong performances by Treasurer 
Peter Costello and Shadow Treasurer Wayne Swan (ref D). 
However, Health Minister Tony Abbott -- a capable performer 
with a sharp tongue but questionable judgment -- managed to 
halt the Government's momentum by insulting a 
wheelchair-bound asbestos victims-rights campaigner the day 
before he arrived late to his nationally-televised debate 
with his ALP counterpart (ref B).  His testy performance at 
and after the debate only served to obscure PM Howard's 
announcement of government-funded outpatient clinics around 
the country.  Meanwhile, the ALP matched the Coalition's 
previously-announced AU$4 billion handout to senior citizens. 
 They changed the policy somewhat but essentially promised 
the same. 
 
LABOR KEEPS ITS TEN POINT LEAD 
 
¶3. (U) While Tuesday's Newspoll was seen as good news for the 
Coalition -- since the ALP's lead had halved since the 
previous week's poll -- the ALP still had a commanding eight 
point lead.  Friday's A.C. Nielsen poll was essentially 
unchanged from its mid-October poll (eight point ALP lead). 
While 51 percent of those surveyed approve of John Howard's 
performance, 60 percent approve of Kevin Rudd's.  Rudd leads 
as preferred prime minister 49-41. 
 
HOWARD TARGETS VICTORIA 
 
¶4. (C/NF) Howard spent a large part of the week making 
announcements in Victoria where the ALP is targeting four 
Coalition seats - all with margins of between five and six 
percent.  Two months ago, both sides believed there would 
almost certainly be no seats changing hands in Victoria. 
However, with the ALP maintaining its big lead in the polls, 
a seat-gain by the ALP in Victoria looked increasingly 
possible.  Rudd has campaigned in the seats, and now Howard 
has been forced to spend more time in Victoria. 
Interestingly, the ALP state director for Victoria told 
Melbourne poloff that the ALP would likely not win any 
additional seats in Victoria. The margins are big; the 
Coalition has been making a number of expensive promises; and 
the local Liberal members are well-liked.  A contact with 
ties to Rudd claimed that the Opposition Leader is 
campaigning in seats he knows he likely will not win in order 
to foster a sense of inevitability about his victory and 
force the Coalition to spend resources defending the seats. 
 
NEW SOUTH WALES LOOKS BAD FOR GOVERNMENT 
 
¶5. (C/NF)  In contrast to Victoria, the ALP is ratcheting up 
pressure on the Coalition in New South Wales (NSW). 
According to Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull,s 
campaign manager, Scott Briggs (protect), recent internal 
Liberal Party polling showed that ALP candidates are making a 
serious contest of four Sydney seats once considered safe by 
the Liberal party: MacArthur, Hughes, Greenway, and North 
Sydney, held by Industrial Relations Minister Joe Hockey. 
While the Liberal Party incumbents remain ahead in the polls 
and should win their elections, the campaign manager 
explained, the surge by the ALP is forcing the Liberal Party 
to spend extra resources defending relatively safe Liberal 
Party seats. 
 
¶6. (C/NF) Turnbull's campaign manager also conceded that the 
ALP looks to be on track to win at least four seats in NSW: 
Lindsay, Macquarie, Eden-Monaro, and Dobell.  He noted that 
Prime Minister's seat of Bennelong, Environment Minster 
Malcolm Turnbull,s seat of Wentworth, Local Government 
Minister Jim Lloyd,s seat of Robertson, and the National 
Party seat of Page, where the incumbent is retiring, remain 
the real battleground seats for the election.  He conceded 
that the ALP is looking very strong in Robertson, where 
incumbent minister Lloyd is having trouble convincing voters 
that he has successfully represented local interests in 
Canberra.  In the seat of Bennelong, PM Howard had been 
trailing his opponent Maxine McKew in the Liberal party's 
internal polls but recent polls are showing that he is 
pulling ahead.  Turnbull, fighting to hold his marginal 
Sydney electorate of Wentworth, had maintained a slight edge 
over his opponent in internal polls until last weekend when 
newspapers reported he had tried and failed to convince the 
Howard cabinet to ratify the Kyoto protocol.  Nonetheless, 
Briggs is optimistic that Turnbull will barely hold 
Wentworth.  The National Party remains optimistic it can hold 
the seat of Page, according to the chief of staff to the 
leader of the NSW National Party.  The central coast seat of 
Patterson is also shaping up to be a close contest, according 
to the campaign manager, but he believes the incumbent 
liberal party MP will retain it. 
 
COMMENT: COALITION FRUSTRATED BY FAILURE TO GAIN GROUND 
 
¶7. (C/NF) The economy is strong.  There are no government 
scandals.  The Prime Minister's approval rating remains above 
50 per cent in most polls.  With the economy doing so well 
and Howard not disliked, what is going on?  A recent analysis 
of polling data by "The Australian" newspaper pointed out 
that Labor is favored by every age group except those over 55 
years old.  With the Government having been in power for 11 
years, younger voters do not remember the hard times under 
Labor, and therefore have no basis for comparison.  Combine 
this with the mood for change and the fact that many blue 
collar voters feel betrayed by Howard passing what they 
believe to be unfair workplace relations laws and Labor's 
consistent lead makes more sense. 
 
MCCALLUM