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INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 003430 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE ALSO FOR EUR/ERA, EUR/SCE, EUR/ACE 
PLEASE PASS TO USAID/EE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2017 
TAGS: PREL EAID ZL EUN
SUBJECT: EU:  EXPECT POSITIVE STATEMENT ON KOSOVO AT 
DECEMBER 14 SUMMIT 
 
REF: BRUSSELS 3382 
 
Classified By: Acting DepPolCouns V. Carver for reasons 1.5 (B/D). 
 
SUMMARY 
- - - - 
 
¶1.  (C/NF)  Several missions have told us that the Political 
and Security Committee's (PSC) November 29 review of Kosovo 
was more detailed than previous discussions.  While the 
meeting took no decisions, PSC ambassadors likely will 
recommend that the December 10 GAERC note that the Troika 
process has concluded and that efforts to find a negotiated 
solution have been exhausted.  EU leaders would then issue a 
statement at their December 14 European Council (summit) 
noting that the EU will assume its responsibilities in 
Kosovo.  Our contacts noted the likelihood of a special GAERC 
one or two days after a UDI, with the formal launching of the 
ESDP mission possibly at the January 28 GAERC.  Lithuania 
reportedly pushed in PSC discussions for a strong public 
marker at the EU Council that the 27 were united to oppose 
any efforts to use Kosovo as an excuse to modify security 
arrangements elsewhere in Europe, notably Moldova.  A/S 
Fried's visit December 6 offers an opportunity to strengthen 
the EU's backbone to take the necessary decisions in the 
weeks ahead.  End summary 
 
DISCUSSION MOVES TO TIME-FRAME 
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¶2.  (C) UK PSC Ambassador King, Lithuanian PSC Ambassador 
Jankauskas, Slovak Mission Balkans expert Juaisova, and Greek 
Balkans expert Athamassiadou (protect all) told us November 
29-30 that the PSC had a lengthy discussion November 29 on 
Kosovo.  According to Juaisova, given the Troika's communique 
that noted its failure to find a negotiated solution, most 
member states want to move forward on planning for a UDI. 
While no decisions have yet been reached, Juaisova said the 
likeliest scenario would be:  week of December 3 Ischinger 
may brief PSC; Dec. 10 GAERC simply takes note of troika's 
efforts and that the CG will present the troika report that 
same day; Dec. 14 European Council issues a statement noting 
that the EU is ready to assume its responsibilities regarding 
Kosovo while at the same time underscoring the European 
perspective for Serbia. 
 
¶3.  (C/NF) Our contacts noted that the EU would almost 
certainly hold a special GAERC coming one or two days after a 
UDI -- characterized by Juaisova as "now expected sometime in 
January," with FMs adopting the "Montenegrin model" of taking 
note of the UDI.  Juaisova said several member states want 
assurances, possibly included in the Kosovo constitution, 
that various "Ahtisaari principles" are legally paramount in 
Kosovo, with any Kosovo legislation contravening those 
principles struck down.  (Note:  She did not explain how this 
would be accomplished, but other EU contacts note that this 
would be an ICR responsibility.)  A "critical mass" (but 
Juaisova would not speculate on exact numbers, and she noted 
that only her PM knows when Slovakia would recognize) of 
member states would recognize before the GAERC on January 28. 
 She noted that there is still a divide among member states 
over when best to formally launch the ESDP Mission; some 
member states want to do so at the special GAERC, others want 
to wait a few additional weeks to allow recruitment and 
procurement to continue behind-the-scenes, so as to have even 
more people and equipment on the ground when the mission is 
formally launched. Juaisova noted that ICR-designate Pieter 
Feith shares this view. 
 
KEEPING SERBIA ON TRACK 
- - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶4.  (C/NF) Juaisova and Athamassiadou explained that the 
French, supported by several member states (undoubtedly 
including the incoming Slovene presidency) are pushing for 
speedy discussions as early as January on visa liberalization 
"for the region, but aimed initially at Serbia."  Signing an 
SAA with Belgrade is also not off the table.  According to 
Juaisova, some member states believe that should Belgium form 
a new government in time and replace its current FM, the 
Belgians will be more flexible on signing an SAA with 
Belgrade, with an isolated Netherlands more susceptible to 
pressure to agree, even without Mladic arrested.  Juaisova 
added that with Del Ponte's term expiring at the end of the 
year, Dutch influence on the incoming Chief Prosecutor may be 
less than what The Hague presumably had with Del Ponte. 
Athamassiadou said that the EU could not wait for "several 
months" without doing something both concrete (visa 
 
BRUSSELS 00003430  002 OF 002 
 
 
facilitation and liberalization) and symbolic (signing an 
SAA) for Serbs.  She agreed that a new Belgian government 
might join the emerging consensus favoring these steps for 
Belgrade.  Athamassiadou was not as optimistic as Juaisova 
about the Dutch supporting this absent Mladic's arrest. 
 
COMMENT:  NEED FOR EU UNITY INCREASINGLY ISOLATING ANTI-ESDP 
COUNTRIES, BUT... 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
- - - - - - - - 
 
¶5.  (C/NF) The EU's continued insistence on unity dragged out 
the final status process through much of the last several 
months, as various member states insisted on the need for a 
UNSCR and then for continued negotiations.  Now the tide 
appears to be working in our favor, with the "usual suspect" 
holdouts jumping, however unenthusiastically, on the 
bandwagon of reality.  In fact, only Romania and Cyprus are 
now regularly cited as holdouts, and the Romanian PSC 
ambassador told us this week that, for all its concerns about 
not isolating Serbia, Romania would not block EU consensus. 
Moreover, both will be subject to increasing pressure from 
other member states.  Also on the positive side of the 
ledger, a PSC contact told us that, at a Nov 29 PSC 
discussion on the legal basis for an ESDP mission, only the 
Cypriots appeared to insist that the EU needed an explicit 
request from the UNSYG before it could launch.  The Nov 29 
PSC discussion of the press line for the EU Council was also 
reportedly positive.  Lithuanian sources told us that they 
had found the Portuguese "very solid," but Vilnius is still 
pushing to include a clear statement that the 27 were united 
in insisting that Kosovo must not be used as an excuse to 
change the security status quo elsewhere in Europe, meaning 
Moldova and Georgia. 
 
¶6.   (C/NF) That said, various Brussels contacts concede that 
many member states would still dearly love to have a formal 
UN blessing, and several have made clear that if the 27 need 
"more time" to reach consensus, the Kosovars will just have 
to wait.  In that context, UK permrep sources noted that 
Moscow's dangling the possibility of a UNSCR authorizing the 
ESDP Mission could be very attractive to many legal 
departments in the MFAs and chancelleries of member states, 
and would provide ready justification for some for a delay in 
final status determination. 
 
¶7.  (C/NF) A/S Fried's visit December 6 offers an opportunity 
to encourage the Euros to continue their planning on meeting 
the challenge of Kosovo independence and the launching of the 
ESDP Mission.  We should praise the EU's role as personified 
by Ischinger in the troika's exhaustive efforts to find a 
negotiated solution.  We should once again agree on the need 
to reach out to moderate leaders and civic society in 
Belgrade (though the 27 seem at a loss as to how to do that, 
given that the EU has no mechanisms to coordinate and 
implement such a policy).  The Euros will also want to be 
reassured that the U.S. will remain committed to the region, 
including through KFOR and our significant contribution of 
personnel to the ESDP Mission.  Now that the EU bandwagon 
finally appears on the right track, we will need to continue 
to voice our support -- and our concerns. 
MURRAY 
.