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DE RUEHWN #1409/01 3121659
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 081659Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5738
INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0281
RUEHIN/AIT TAIPEI 0140
RUMIAAA/HQ USSOUTHCOM J2 MIAMI FL
RUMIAAA/HQ USSOUTHCOM J5 MIAMI FL
RUEHCV/USDAO CARACAS VE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 001409 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/07/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR CN TW ST XL
SUBJECT: ST LUCIA:  JOHN COMPTON'S DAUGHTER LIKELY TO WIN 
BY-ELECTION, BUT IF SHE DOESN'T... 
 
 
Classified By: CDA Clyde Howard for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY:  Jeanine Compton-Rambally, daughter of former 
prime minister Sir John Compton, will likely win an upcoming 
by-election for the seat left vacant by her father's death. 
Although unlikely, the opposition could narrowly win the seat 
if the participation of two independent candidates splinters 
the ruling party votes.  This would result in a significantly 
weakened ruling party relying on two disgruntled members to 
keep a majority.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (C) Jeanine Compton-Rambally, a marine biologist and 
daughter of former prime minister Sir John Compton, is the 
front runner candidate for the by-election to fill Micoud 
North, the seat left empty by her father's death in 
September.  Although not yet officially announced, two 
contacts have confirmed that the election will be during the 
last week of November. 
 
The Candidates 
-------------- 
 
¶3. (U) Currently, four candidates are poised to compete for 
the coveted seat, a traditional stronghold for the ruling 
United Workers Party (UWP).  In addition to Compton-Rambally, 
opposition candidate Silas Wilson of the St. Lucia Labour 
Party (SLP) will contest, along with independent candidates 
George Daniel, an economist and lecturer at Sir Arthur Lewis 
Community College, and Marius Wilson, previous member of 
parliament both as an independent and member of the UWP. 
Compton-Rambally narrowly beat Daniel 29 to 27 votes in an 
election for the candidacy conducted by the UWP's National 
Council.  Following this vote, many Micoud citizens were 
rather vocal in expressing that, although the people of 
Micoud love former Prime Minister Compton, his daughter is 
not one of them while Daniel is. 
 
Jeanine to Win 
-------------- 
 
¶4. (C) Many are speculating that Daniel's candidacy could 
upset Compton-Rambally's chance to win, allowing Silas Wilson 
to walk into the seat.  However, one reliable political 
analyst countered this possibility, stating to PolOff that 
Compton-Rambally has three factors that will ensure success. 
First is the women's vote.  There are currently no women 
members of parliament (MP), making a female victor 
attractive.  Second, the UWP sent two of its most popular MPs 
to the rally announcing her candidacy: Guy Joseph and Richard 
Frederick, a Micoud native.  Third, Compton-Rambally reminds 
people of her father.  In addition to these factors, her 
being the official UWP candidate guarantees her a certain 
percentage of votes.  According to this contact, although 
Daniel has a certain pocket of support, it will not be enough 
to upset the election. 
 
But If She Doesn't... 
--------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) In contrast, a political pundit and former UWP 
campaign manager told PolOff that the UWP does not 
necessarily have this election in the bag.  He stated that a 
UWP organizer confided his fear that Daniel could upset the 
election in favor of the SLP.  He also opined that an SLP 
victory would have important ramifications.  First, it would 
illustrate a loss in UWP popularity due to the various 
political blunders of the last six months.  Second, it would 
result in a potentially unstable situation for the ruling 
UWP.  In a 17-member parliament, the UWP would hold only 10 
seats, two of which are held by disgruntled party members 
removed from cabinet -- former foreign minister Rufus 
Bousquet and deputy speaker of the house Marcus Nicholas. 
According to this pundit, Bousquet's and Nicholas' loyalty is 
low enough to conceivably result in their crossing the aisle, 
allowing the SLP to retake government with a 9-8 majority in 
parliament. 
 
Comment:  A Possible Return to Beijing? 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) A UWP victory in the by-election would mean business 
as usual for the government.  Although a longshot, an SLP 
victory has much greater ramifications.  The power that a 
10-7 parliament would give Bousquet and Nicholas cannot be 
underestimated.  Either the UWP would have to concede to 
demands by these two MPs to keep them loyal or the SLP could 
dangle enough incentives to bring them over.  If the SLP 
managed to temp Bousquet and Nicholas and shift the 
parliamentary majority to its favor, a reinstated SLP 
government would switch diplomatic relations from Taiwan back 
to China less than a year after the government formally 
recognized Taiwan. 
HOWARD