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RR RUEHROV
DE RUEHAM #4430/01 3051203
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
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FM AMEMBASSY AMMAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0782
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 AMMAN 004430 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2017 
TAGS: JO PGOV KDEM
SUBJECT: FROM THE TRIBES TO THE STREET: THE ANATOMY OF A 
JORDANIAN PARLIAMENTARY CAMPAIGN 
 
REF: AMMAN 4320 
 
Classified By: Classified by Ambassador David Hale 
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary: Jordan's campaign season is in full swing. 
Many candidates start their campaigns on the tribal level, 
where they compete for endorsements and the support of a 
unified tribe.  Not all receive a unanimous verdict, but most 
can count on some form of tribal base.  Campaign teams (both 
volunteer and paid) then organize activities through the 
candidate's professional connections and by reaching out to 
other tribes.  Candidates court voters through personal 
meetings, door-to-door campaigning, and election tents, all 
the while trying to balance their schedules to reach the most 
people.  As the methods of Jordanian campaigns become more 
sophisticated, raising barriers to entry are changing the 
nature of politics.  End Summary. 
 
Stage One:  The Tribal Caucus 
----------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) For most candidates in Jordan, a declaration of 
candidacy starts at the tribal level.  Since tribal 
affiliation is central in the minds of many voters, it is key 
for most candidates to obtain the tacit or explicit 
endorsement of their tribes before running.  Note: 
Tribal/family affiliation is equally important for both 
Palestinian-origin candidates and East Bankers - both 
demographics see their tribes and families as voting blocs. 
The situation of Palestinian-origin candidates will be 
reported in more detail septel.  End Note. 
 
¶3.  (C) Increasingly, candidates are given tribal endorsement 
through a process that resembles a caucus.  Well before the 
start of the campaign period, tribal leaders (or sometimes 
the candidates themselves) will call for a tribal meeting to 
determine who will run.  Depending on the size of the tribe, 
the meeting could encompass all members of the tribe, a small 
group of elders or well-respected personalities, or even just 
heads of household.  A candidate in the Madaba district, for 
example, whose tribe numbers upwards of 800,000 members, was 
selected by a group of 400 senior sheikhs and notables. 
Another candidate in Balqa was selected by a general meeting 
of all of the people from his tribe - about 3,000 members - 
who voted with actual ballots in a staged primary election. 
These tribal caucuses are almost always attended by men only, 
as it is assumed that women will vote with their male heads 
of household. 
 
¶4.  (C) Some candidates offer to fund these "caucuses," on 
the assumption that they will be selected.  Since many tribes 
are scattered across several of Jordan's central districts, 
it can be logistically difficult to set up these meetings. 
(One candidate in Balqa issued an email invitation to a 
caucus, cleverly disguised as an Eid al Fitr message.) 
During the meetings, candidates talk about their stature 
within the tribe, as well as the tribe's stature in Jordan as 
a whole.  One tribe filmed the debates, endorsements, and 
voting for later inclusion on a website - documentary proof 
of the candidate's tribal credentials that its scattered 
members could see for themselves. 
 
¶5.  (C) Such caucuses do not always result in the selection 
of a single candidate.  Salem Ali Al Nusour, a candidate in 
the Balqa district, put himself forward at a caucus called by 
the leadership of his tribe.  He and a competitor decided 
jointly on a method to decide who would win:  each candidate 
would select a representative, and those representatives in 
turn would select a neutral third party.  This committee of 
three would then decide which candidate was most suitable. 
After being selected by this three person committee, Al 
Nusour became, in his words, "the unanimous candidate of the 
tribe".  However, after the tribal caucus the other candidate 
reneged on the deal and decided to declare his candidacy at 
any rate, potentially splitting the vote.  Another candidate 
warned of the fickle nature of the tribal caucuses:  "Just 
because you have a tribal endorsement, it doesn't mean that 
jealousy or apathy won't scuttle things." 
 
¶6.  (C) Sufficient opposition to a candidate running for 
re-election can also produce multiple candidates from a 
single tribe.  An MP running for re-election in Madaba was 
accused of corruption, so members of his own tribe decided to 
scuttle his candidacy by announcing their intention to run 
against him.  Unable to secure his own base of supporters, we 
hear that the candidate is now pursuing a two-pronged 
strategy of dirty tricks against his opponents and a broader 
campaign that depends less on tribal affiliation. 
 
¶7.  (C) In rare cases, tribes will refrain from nominating a 
candidate.  One tribe in Madaba won the mayoralty in the 
 
AMMAN 00004430  002 OF 003 
 
 
municipal elections, and decided not to put forward a 
candidate for parliament, hoping to win favor and accrue 
connections with other tribes who would in turn seek the 
first tribe's approval for their candidate.  Contacts 
indicate that this situation is increasingly common, as a 
tribe with too many politicians in its pocket would be seen 
as greedy, while backing another tribe's candidate can build 
potentially useful alliances. 
 
Stage Two:  Building A Base 
--------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Once they have obtained the endorsement of their 
tribes, candidates go about putting together a base of 
supporters.  This process starts with hiring a campaign team. 
 Due to Jordan's high unemployment and political culture, 
campaigns are rarely staffed with volunteers.  Family members 
and members of one's tribe can be counted on to pitch in, but 
they usually expect some form of payment or at least 
reimbursement for expenses.  (One candidate we visited had a 
special part of his budget set aside for sweets and other 
"gifts" to his campaign staff.) 
 
¶9.  (SBU) The campaign team is in charge of building a list 
of supporters from the candidate's tribal roots and then 
expanding it.  The tribal caucus is the base of this list - 
those who attend the ceremony give their contact information, 
and are counted as key supporters.  As candidates hit the 
campaign trail, their staff is never far behind, gathering 
email addresses and phone numbers so they can contact 
supporters on election day.  Some of the more sophisticated 
candidates also have the equivalent of district "captains" 
who are responsible for getting voters to the polls. 
 
¶10.  (C) Most first-time candidates rely on their 
professional and personal connections to build a base of 
supporters beyond those in their tribe.  One candidate in 
Salt, a former engineering professor, pressed his former 
students into service as campaign workers and liaisons to 
their tribes.  Another used his legal office to cut through 
red tape for job-seeking constituents - "wasta" or 
"connections" being a key job qualification in the eyes of 
many voters.  Still another candidate essentially campaigned 
through his position as a family doctor - treating patients 
and meanwhile engaging them on a personal level about the 
issues. 
 
¶11.  (C) A more controversial tactic involves bolstering the 
voter rolls through the transfer of tribal members into 
certain districts (to be reported septel).  Whether organized 
by tribes or individual candidates, this process involves 
changing a voter's national identification card to reflect 
the desired district, regardless of whether they live there 
or not.  While the candidates and tribes that sponsor this 
practice can benefit from it, there are costs and risks 
involved.  The members of many tribes are scattered 
throughout Jordan, and busing voters in from far away 
districts can become a considerable logistical headache and 
financial drain on a campaign. 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Tribal loyalties in Jordan mean that many 
candidates have a built-in base they can count on.  This is 
positive in the sense that everyone standing for office is 
usually guaranteed a certain number of votes and some 
semblance of a campaign staff.  The negative side is that, 
save for candidates from the largest tribes, the base of most 
candidates is similar, effectively canceling out the benefit 
of having a base in the first place.  Beyond the few 
candidates whose tribes are large enough for them to win 
outright, most candidates in Jordan are forced to compete for 
the precious few swing voters who will cross tribal lines, 
especially in cases where tribal caucuses fail to produce a 
sole candidate. 
 
Stage Three:  Hitting The Campaign Trail 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶13.  (SBU) Most candidates in Jordan cannot win solely on the 
basis of their tribal affiliations.  Vote splits within 
tribes, apathy among voters (reftel), and small tribal 
numbers usually necessitate some sort of public campaign. 
The most visible manifestation of this is the massive 
outpouring of posters and banners.  Note:  After the 
municipal elections in July, the Amman municipality decided 
to levy a hefty 2000 JD (USD 2800) fee for all candidates. 
The fee is to be used to defray the costs of disposing of 
campaign signs and banners after the election.  End Note. 
The posters and banners are simple - most simply display the 
candidate's name, the district they are running in, and a 
picture.  Slogans and other indications of ideological 
leanings are rare.  Female candidates sometimes appear 
covered in their election propaganda - an attempt to lure 
 
AMMAN 00004430  003 OF 003 
 
 
more conservative supporters.  In Balqa, the IAF candidate 
appeared over pictures of Jerusalem's Dome of the Rock and Al 
Aqsa mosques. 
 
¶14.  (SBU) Pressing the flesh in Jordan is generally not done 
on a mass scale.  While there are occasional mass rallies, 
candidates prefer not to speak in front of large crowds, 
where they fear hecklers and doubt that their messages are 
getting through.  Instead, going door to door is seen as a 
far more effective way of reaching out to voters.  All 
candidates we spoke to emphasized the importance of 
establishing a personal connection to voters, which is almost 
impossible to do in a large meeting.  "I try to stop in to 
every house on the block - even for just five minutes," one 
candidate said.  "I do it to show respect."  Another 
candidate went around to local businesses: "When you get a 
business owner on your side, he brings his whole family with 
him."  Once word of mouth begins to spread, candidates are 
often invited to small gatherings in people's homes to 
discuss the issues.  Usually these are organized by voters 
themselves, but occasionally they are organized by a 
candidate's campaign team. 
 
¶15.  (SBU) Another traditional method of campaigning is the 
election tent.  These range from simple shelters to lavish 
affairs, complete with carpets, beverage service, and 
comfortable chairs.  Tents are set up in empty lots or on the 
outskirts of cities, and are designed as forums where 
candidates can make themselves available to voters.  These 
meetings often turn into mini-debates, in which candidates 
and their constituents hold forth on the social issues of the 
day.  Some candidates organize larger kick-off celebrations 
for the opening of their tents and invite members of their 
tribe or supporters from prepared lists.  Mansaf, the 
national dish of lamb, rice, and ghee or yogurt, is often 
served.  Since tent meetings often cater to more conservative 
tribal voters, one candidate donned traditional dress.  "I 
wear the dishdash here in the tent, but when I go on vacation 
to Lebanon, I wear shorts," he explained. 
 
¶16.  (SBU) Campaigns in Jordan are top heavy, and candidates 
complain about the stress of being constantly available.  One 
campaigned deep into the night in an effort to find younger 
voters at a time that was convenient for them.  "I start in 
the early evening with the older people," he says.  "By the 
time they go to bed, the youngsters are just starting their 
night."  Another candidate emphasized the burden of running a 
top-heavy campaign on a personal level.  "I can't delegate 
anything.  All of my staff and the voters themselves want 
decisions to come directly from me," she remarked. 
Describing the campaign schedule as "hectic," a candidate in 
Madaba went door-to-door during the day and spent most of the 
night in his election tent on the outskirts of town. 
 
Stage Four:  Get Out The Vote 
----------------------------- 
 
¶17.  (SBU) On election day, campaign teams have an organized 
system that alerts voters to the task at hand and often 
physically transports them to the polls.  Based on the list 
of supporters gathered during the campaign, neighborhood 
captains will call, email, text message, or visit the people 
for whom they are responsible.  Where candidates have 
arranged for constituency transfers, they are usually 
obligated to provide transportation for those voters via 
rented cars and busses to cast their ballots in the new 
district.  Some candidates even provide gas money to voters 
to entice them into making the trip to the polls. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶18.  (C) Despite their often traditional appearance, 
campaigns in Jordan are increasingly sophisticated machines. 
From the tribal caucuses to election day, campaigns require 
large budgets, long-term planning, a considerable staff, and 
the energy to see it all through.  All of this amounts to 
higher barriers to entry in Jordanian politics, a situation 
that has positive and negative implications.  As the burden 
of campaigning rises, fewer "everyday people" can be relied 
upon to run, potentially creating a disconnect between 
increasingly richer candidates and their constituents.  Yet 
the flip side is also true:  sophisticated campaigns are 
increasingly run by more sophisticated candidates, who have 
the organizational wherewithal and focus to visualize the 
start and finish of a successful effort.  While the overall 
campaign system remains simplistic, based on tribal 
loyalties, and likely to produce a backwoodsman majority in 
the parliament, the seeds of issue-based, mass campaigns are 
being sown. 
Hale