VZCZCXRO4968
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHAM #4409/01 3050740
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 010740Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY AMMAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0754
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 004409 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA/ELA, NEA/PPD, IIP/GNEA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: JO KPAO KMDR PREL
SUBJECT: King Abdullah Publicly Declares His Optimism About 
Annapolis, But Jordanian Pundits Skeptical 
 
 
¶1.  Summary: Jordan's King Abdullah has publicly expressed his full 
support and hope about the Annapolis conference on three different 
occasions recently.  The first came following his October 18 meeting 
with the Secretary in London, followed by statements he made October 
28 in Bahrain and October 29 in China.  These expressions were 
widely covered in the Jordanian media.  He also emphasized the need 
for U.S. and international support for the Palestinian Authority. 
Despite the King's public backing, however, media pundits and other 
contacts continue to voice more skeptical and negative expectations 
for the coming meeting.  End Summary. 
 
 
-------------- 
Royal Optimism 
-------------- 
 
¶2.  King Abdullah has gone public on at least three different 
occasions recently to register his strong backing for the proposed 
meeting in Annapolis, expressing hope coupled with calls for more 
U.S. and international support to the Palestinian Authority (PA). 
The King's statements received extensive front-page coverage in all 
Jordanian papers.  Following his October 18 meeting with the 
Secretary in London, a Royal Court statement was issued, hailing 
 
SIPDIS 
Jordan's "strong support" for the Annapolis meeting and stressing 
the King's "hope that the meeting would mark a major milestone 
towards the establishment of an independent Palestinian state."  The 
statement also said that the King "emphasized the importance of 
achieving positive outcome" at the meeting and described the 
Secretary's efforts in the region as "encouraging and reflected the 
 
SIPDIS 
U.S. administration's commitment to achieve a peace settlement." 
 
¶3.  Ten days later, on October 28, the King's statement in Bahrain 
about the Annapolis meeting was also a lead story.  An identical 
Jordan News Agency report featured in all papers reiterated the 
King's "support" for peace efforts, stressed the need for the peace 
meeting to "discuss final status issues," and urged the U.S. and the 
international community to "extend assistance to the Palestinian 
Authority." 
 
¶4.  The next day, during the his first day of an official visit to 
China, the King offered optimistic remarks about the Annapolis 
meeting during an interview with the Xinhua News Agency: "...what we 
have been hearing back from the U.S., the E.U. and the Quartet has 
given us some reason for optimism," he said, adding that the 
Annapolis meeting is "especially important right now ... as it 
creates a significant opportunity to put an end to the 
Palestinian-Israeli conflict." 
 
---------------------- 
Initial Media Optimism 
---------------------- 
 
¶5.  Recent Jordanian media commentary on the upcoming meeting began 
on a positive note, but has since reverted to predictable skepticism 
and pessimism.  Taher Odwan, influential columnist and chief editor 
of independent daily Al-Arab Al-Yawm, described the meeting between 
the King and the Secretary on October 18 as "an important and major 
event for the Palestinian cause."  In a rare reflection on the 
Arabs' role in the entire peace process, Odwan blamed Arabs for 
lacking the ability to use such meetings "in marketing a solid and 
strong stand vis-`-vis the cause of peace."  And while he proffered 
that Arabs do not expect the meeting to "bring in the head on a 
silver platter" in reference to a Palestinian state, he also wrote 
he had hopes the meeting could "at least achieve something that 
would convince decision-makers in America and Israel that there 
cannot be peace unless the Arabs regain their occupied lands and 
their usurped rights." 
 
¶6.  Similarly, Al-Rai Arabic daily (semi-official) in its editorial 
on October 16 reflected on the political significance of the 
Secretary's earlier remark in Ramallah that the time had come for 
 
SIPDIS 
the establishment of a Palestinian state, arguing that this is 
"cause for more optimism" and an indication of the U.S.' "serious 
intent" towards the peace process.  The editorial averred that the 
Secretary's remark "could constitute a vital turning point if 
 
SIPDIS 
Washington were able to rein in Israel." 
 
----------------- 
Back to Pessimism 
----------------- 
 
¶7.  The initial, somewhat hesitant optimism in the press soon gave 
way to pessimism, however, following reports in regional media that 
the U.S. was allegedly refusing to exercise any pressure upon 
Israel.  Editorial commentary fell back to the customary position of 
criticizing Israel for its allegedly harsh and uncompromising 
policy, disparaging the United States for supporting Israel in an 
unbalanced fashion, and chastising the Arabs for not doing more. 
 
¶8.  The semi-official newspaper Al-Rai's editorial on October 18 
 
AMMAN 00004409  002 OF 002 
 
 
said the Secretary's trip to the region did not achieve "any 
worthwhile success."  The same editorial lamented that the 
Secretary's comment about the propitiousness of a Palestinian state 
 
SIPDIS 
"stirred up false optimism." 
 
¶9.  An equally pessimistic tone predicting no possible breakthrough 
in Annapolis came in a column by the independent Al-Ghad's 
Editor-in-Chief, Ayman Safadi, who, on October 17, termed the 
meeting "a new crisis instead of a new step towards a solution." 
Like others writing in Jordan, Safadi stated that the American 
"approval" not to include an agenda and a timeline for the meeting's 
main issues was "a compromise that has rendered the meeting void of 
meaning." 
 
¶10.  Perennial critic of U.S foreign policy and senior columnist 
Oraib Rantawi, in the October 30 issue of Ad-Dustour, argued that 
while the peace negotiations seem to be advancing, actual peace on 
the ground is backtracking.  He concluded his column with the 
comment: "Most likely the fall conference will be the beginning of 
the fall for peace and will inaugurate a period of confrontation, 
violence and wars." 
 
¶11.  Other informed contacts of ours also voiced skepticism 
regarding any positive outcome of Annapolis.  The head of a leading 
NGO told us the planned meeting is "American camouflage" that is 
part of a plan to distract the Arab world from the coming American 
attack on Iran and Syria.  He felt the meeting wouldn't accomplish 
anything, both because the US and Israel aren't approaching it with 
real proposals and because the Bush administration won't have enough 
time to adequately follow through.   Reflecting a commonly heard 
opinion, the NGO leader said Jordan had seen this before - peace 
conferences come and go, but there is never any real progress.  "You 
don't return to a snake's hole after being bitten" he summed up. 
 
¶12.  Another contact, the director of a local think tank, described 
his views as "90 percent negative", spoke of very high distrust by 
Arabs of the U.S., contrasted current efforts unfavorably with the 
end of apartheid in South Africa (which, he opined, required both 
goodwill on the part of leaders and significant external pressure to 
force a deal), and argued that Israel has neither real will or 
interest in making the conference a success.  The U.S. desire for 
peace - which he said he appreciated - was not matched by a 
willingness to put pressure on both Palestinians and Israelis.  "A 
conference without an agenda will serve as a public relations photo 
opportunity and be a waste of time." 
 
¶13.  Comment: Among the majority of local pundits and opinion 
leaders, years of dashed hopes have raised the degree of cynicism 
and skepticism over new talks or initiatives to a high level.  The 
King's strong statements of support for the current rounds of 
diplomacy and upcoming meeting, coming concurrently with renewed 
Israeli measures against Hamas in Gaza, have not, so far, done much 
to alleviate this public skepticism.  They are undoubtedly helpful, 
however, in the effort to convince other regional leaders of the 
real opportunity for progress that Annapolis represents.  End 
Comment. 
HALE