R 231952Z OCT 07
FM AMCONSUL SYDNEY
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8331
INFO AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 
AMCONSUL MELBOURNE 
AMCONSUL PERTH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SYDNEY 000461 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2017 
TAGS: AS PGOV
SUBJECT: QUEENSLAND'S LEICHARDT SEAT WITHIN LABOR'S REACH 
 
REF: SYDNEY 371 
 
Classified By: Consul General Judith R. Fergin.  Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary.  Both the Liberals and the AFP have 
grounds to hope that they will win the northern Queensland 
constituency of Leichardt, according to local political 
observers and the candidates themselves. With the advantages 
of incumbency and a lively candidate, the Liberals have a 
fighting chance of retaining the seat.  But even pro-Liberal 
commentators observed that a Labor victory was a big, but not 
impossible, task.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (U) Liberal MP Warren Entsch has held the northern 
Queensland seat of Leichardt since 1996.  When he announced 
his intention to retire, the door opened to a three-way race 
among the Liberal, Coalition partner National, and Labor 
parties.  The successful candidate will need to attract 
voters from a far-flung constituency that includes urban 
Cairns, upscale Port Douglas, isolated sugar and cattle 
districts in the interior, and remote Aboriginal and Torres 
Strait Islander communities in the far north.  During an 
October 14-18 visit to the area, the Consul General met with 
candidates, political figures, and local media in Cairns and 
surrounding areas at the outset of the campaign as part of 
Mission Australia's election coverage. 
 
¶3.  (C/NF)  Retiring Liberal member Entsch acknowledged to 
the Consul General that much of his 10-percent margin in the 
2004 election was due to his personal popularity.  This has 
contributed to the sense that Leichardt is actually a 
marginal seat.  Entsch's strong endorsement of his protg, 
Charlie McKillop gives her a powerful boost.  A 33-year old 
northern Queenslander, McKillop has served on Attorney 
General Philip Ruddock's staff as well as on Entsch's as 
media advisor.  As a candidate, she presents an energetic, 
informed, policy-savvy, and politically astute image.  While 
noting that the U.S.)Australia Alliance and Australia's 
presence in Iraq were not vote winners for her, she commented 
that few voters raised industrial relations and climate 
change as issues during her door-to-door campaign visits; 
their comments focused much more on local issues.  In tune 
with the Coalition,s national strategy, McKillop is running 
as the candidate of prosperity and economic responsibility. 
 
¶4.  (C/NF) Labor candidate Jim Turnour is intense and less of 
a people person; he appeared somewhat uncertain about his 
policy brief.  In addition, with his public remarks 
emphasizing what party leader Kevin Rudd will do for the 
nation, he was having trouble at the onset of his campaign 
establishing a persona as the candidate who will achieve 
things for the district at grass roots level.  The issues of 
concern to Leichardt voters )- which, according to most 
local observers, include health, roads, mortgage costs, 
climate change, Iraq, industrial relations )- work in his 
favor, however.  Local observers also believe that the state 
Labor government's unpopular plan to amalgamate various local 
councils will not work against him as voters view that as a 
state (and specifically as a now-former Premier Beattie) 
issue rather than as a federal matter (reftel). 
 
¶5.  (C/NF) National Party candidate Ian Crossland trails far 
behind in the polls and is not regarded as a serious 
candidate.  His campaign claim is that he will not be the 
puppet of any party, including, it would seem, his own. 
Crossland frequently boasts that an ancestor was one of the 
first white children born in Cairns, and made national 
headlines by remarking that Leichardt was too tough a 
constituency for a woman to handle.  While the national 
leadership of the National Party hastily disassociated itself 
from this statement, Entsch and McKillop took full advantage 
of the gaffe to trumpet that McKillop had been born on a 
prawn trawler and had worked her way through university on 
fishing boats.  These observations of her hardscrabble 
beginnings also de-emphasized her Canberra experience, widely 
viewed by observers as a slight handicap.  Despite his having 
provided this tactical gift to her campaign, McKillop saw 
Crossland's unpredictability as a potential liability; if 
voters thought the Coalition partner party's candidate did 
not support the Liberal candidate, it could affect how they 
distributed their preferences, she commented. (Note: 
Crossland told the CG he would instruct his voters to 
preference McKillop, but voters are not required to stick to 
the preference deals that the parties work out in advance. 
End note.) 
 
¶6.  (SBU/NF) None of the three candidates expected the 
national leadership of their parties to spend much time in 
Leichardt.  With Entsch solidly behind her, McKillop has the 
 
senior Liberal support she most needs.  Turnour anticipated a 
single visit at most by Rudd, with several more by shadow 
ministers, but if a recent shadow minister's visit is any 
guide, Turnour will play an also-seen-on-the-platform role 
while the visitor makes the policy announcements.  Crossland 
did not appear aware of National Party plans to support him. 
 
¶7.  (SBU/NF) Comment.  With Queensland shaping up as a major 
election battleground, the campaign in Leichardt matters. 
Distant from Canberra, voters pay close attention to which 
candidate will best represent them at the federal level.  The 
wide margins enjoyed by the ALP in the polls suggest that 
Labor will form the next government in Canberra.  The 
decision for voters in Leichardt will be between McKillop's 
savvy and experience versus the prospect that a Turnour 
victory will ensure that Leichardt's member will continue to 
be on the majority side of the aisle. 
 
FERGIN