VZCZCXRO5435
RR RUEHPT
DE RUEHDN #0459 2950206
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 220206Z OCT 07
FM AMCONSUL SYDNEY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8327
INFO RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 1041
RUEHBN/AMCONSUL MELBOURNE 2445
RUEHPT/AMCONSUL PERTH 0390

UNCLAS SYDNEY 000459 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O.  12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR AS
SUBJECT: THE BATTLE FOR PM HOWARD'S ELECTORATE 
 
¶1.  SUMMARY: Prime Minister Howard faces a stiff challenge for 
reelection in his own electorate of Bennelong, located in western 
Sydney.  Howard has represented the constituents of Bennelong in 
Parliament since 1974.  Changes to the electorate's boundaries over 
the years, however, have reduced John Howard's margin of support. 
In the last election, he won with only a 4.3-percent margin. 
Believing the seat to be vulnerable, the Labor party recruited a 
high-profile, nationally respected retired television news 
broadcaster, Maxine McKew, to run against Howard in the 2007 
election.  Although McKew had never lived in the electorate, her 
television career gave her instant name recognition and credibility. 
 In a private meeting October 12, McKew told us voter concerns over 
industrial relations, climate change, education, and health will 
help her chances.  Leaked polls to the media show McKew has earned a 
slight edge over Howard, but betting agencies still favor Howard to 
win.  Nonetheless, she admits unseating a sitting Prime Minister 
will be extremely difficult -- it has happened only once before in 
Australian history.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  Although the seat of Bennelong has historically been a 
mono-ethnic middle-class suburban neighborhood of Sydney, growing 
Chinese and Korean communities in the area have made the area more 
ethnically diverse.  As many of the new migrants work in lower 
income jobs, McKew said she has been campaigning against Howard's 
pro-business industrial relations reforms to capture their votes. 
She said the issue resonates with older voters as well, many of whom 
have shared personal anecdotes with McKew of children and 
grandchildren who are earning fewer benefits from their jobs.  McKew 
believes that many Bennelong voters are also attracted to the Labor 
party's support for more aggressive protection of the environment 
and opposition to nuclear energy.  Most of all, McKew said voters 
perceive opposition leader Kevin Rudd to be a "confident, modern, 
21st century" leader, and a more appealing choice to lead the nation 
for the next three years.  Toward the end of our meeting, however, 
she admitted that it is hard to convince people to vote a sitting 
Prime Minister out of parliament. 
 
¶3.  Liberal State MP Greg Smith, who represents half of Bennelong in 
the state parliament, believes Howard will hold his seat. Smith told 
us October 18 that Howard still "gets mobbed" at local events. 
Howard has also stayed involved in local issues.  For example, plans 
to redevelop a local medical center meant that a close-knit group of 
handicapped tenants would be dislocated and moved to disparate 
facilities.  Howard weighed in to keep them all together, which 
endeared him to area residents emotionally tied to the medical 
center.  Smith acknowledges that McKew has star quality and good 
name recognition, but he remains unconvinced that the Prime Minister 
will lose his parliamentary seat. 
 
¶4.  COMMENT: McKew is forcing Howard to campaign hard in his own 
electorate at the same time he is trying to claw back from a 
10-point deficit nationally.  Many observers believe that was an 
important factor behind the ALP's decision to recruit her for that 
seat.  Many also speculate that the ALP planned to use this as her 
practice (but unsuccessful) campaign with an eye to running her 
again whenever Howard finally vacates the seat.  Labor and Liberal 
commentators alike believe that the Liberals will lose the seat once 
Howard retires.  This year, even in a close election and even if the 
Labor Party wins control of the government, Howard should hold his 
seat.  If he does, Labor will have to compensate with a win in 
another electorate in order to get the 16 seats it needs to win the 
election.  END COMMENT. 
 
FERGIN