VZCZCXRO2728
RR RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHJS #0064/01 3030957
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 300957Z OCT 07
FM AMCONSUL SURABAYA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0090
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 0031
RUEHJA/AMEMBASSY JAKARTA 0082
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 0029
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEHJS/AMCONSUL SURABAYA 0092

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SURABAYA 000064 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/MTS AND EB/ESC/IEC 
DEPT FOR DS/IS/EAP 
DOE FOR CUTLER/PI-32 AND NAKANO/PI-42 
COMMERCE FOR USDOC 4430 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EINV EPET ELAB ENRG PGOV ASEC ID
SUBJECT: EAST JAVA MUD FLOW UPDATE: PRESIDENTIAL FLY-BY OFFERS 
VICTIMS LITTLE RELIEF 
 
REF: A. Surabaya 61 
 
     ¶B. Jakarta 1768 
     ¶C. Surabaya 56 
 
SURABAYA 00000064  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
This message is sensitive, but unclassified.  Please protect 
accordingly. 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: President Yudhoyono's October 25 fly-by of the 
Sidoarjo mud flow disaster and subsequent meeting with officials 
at the Surabaya airport left displaced residents skeptical of 
any significant action.  Vice President Jusuf Kalla made similar 
aerial observations on October 28 and announced that decreasing 
mud flow volumes demonstrated that mitigation efforts are 
"improving."  With mud breaching earthen containment dams with 
increasing frequency, the Porong river threatening to overflow 
its banks, and transportation infrastructure crumbling, the 
upcoming rainy season may quickly overwhelm efforts to mitigate 
the continuing impact of this disaster.  End Summary. 
 
FLY-OVERS AND PRONOUNCEMENTS 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶2. (SBU)  Although originally scheduled to visit those displaced 
by the Sidoarjo mud flow on his return from visiting evacuees 
from the nearby Mt. Kelud volcano, President Yudhoyono (SBY) 
settled for a helicopter fly-by of the disaster area on October 
¶25.  After his aerial tour, SBY met with Minister of Public 
Works, Djoko Kirmanto, the Head of the Sidoarjo Mud Disaster 
Management Board (BPLS) retired General Sunarso, East Java 
Governor Imam Utomo, and Sidoarjo Regent Win Hendrarso in the 
VVIP room at Surabaya's Juanda Airport.  Following the meeting, 
Minister Djoko told reporters that four conclusions had been 
reached: the Governor and Regent would encourage victims to 
accept Lapindo's offer of 20% compensation; the Regent would 
develop a clear payment schedule for the remaining 80%; the mud 
would continue to be channeled into the Porong River; and BPLS 
would be issued operational funds of Rp 500 billion (USD 55 
million) from the state budget. (Note: Presidential Decree 
14/2007 set the deadline for full compensation payments from 
Lapindo for May 2008, two years after the disaster began.) 
 
¶3. (SBU) After an October 28 helicopter ride over the mud-flow 
site, Vice President Jusuf Kalla told reporters that the mud 
flow rate was decreasing thus demonstrating improvement in mud 
flow management.  According Kalla, as reported by the Antara 
News, the mud flow rate has decreased from a high of 150,000 
cubic meters/day to 60,000 cubic meters/day.  Kalla added that 
Lapindo and the government were working together to resolve the 
problem, pointing to efforts to direct the mud into the river as 
an example.  He emphasized that Lapindo and the government were 
now focused on completing the compensation payments. 
 
PORONG RIVER SLOWING 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶4. (SBU)  Despite the laudatory comments from the President and 
Vice President, the decision to mitigate the mud flow by pushing 
the mud into the Porong river has created its own problems. 
Because of mud sedimentation, according to Tempo Interaktif, the 
river's depth has decreased from seven meters to just one meter. 
 As a result, the water flow rate has slowed from 1,500 cubic 
meters/second to just 500 cubic meters/second, raising fears 
about upstream flooding after the rainy season starts in 
November. According to Surya newspaper, nearby villagers have 
begun complaining that water from the Porong has started to leak 
into their houses.   BPLS is employing five dredgers and 
excavators in an effort to push the mud sedimentation 
downstream. 
 
THREATENED INFRASTRUCTURE 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Increasingly frequent breaches of the containment dams 
(Ref A) are threatening surrounding transportation 
infrastructure.  According to the Jawa Pos, the Indonesian 
Railroad Company (PT KAI) has been straightening rail lines in 
the Siring area that are buckling as a result of subsidence.  PT 
KAI has also reportedly asked BPLS to build drainage canals to 
prevent water from the mud ponds from flowing onto the tracks. 
BPLS has been working to increase the height of the dam which 
protects both the railroad and the Porong road from nine to 12 
meters.  Water collecting on the Jatirejo mud pond is now just 
10 cm below the top of the dam.  BPLS estimates that the land is 
 
SURABAYA 00000064  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
subsiding two to 20 cm each day throughout the containment 
complex. 
 
¶6. (SBU) According to the Jawa Pos, the Sidoarjo regency 
government intends to complete purchases of 75% of the land 
needed to relocate critical infrastructure by the end of the 
year.  A "fair price" and a mechanism for purchasing the land 
have yet to be determined.  The government will need to purchase 
a corridor 10 kms long and 120 meters wide to accommodate the 
relocated infrastructure.  It remains unclear how concerns about 
an ever-widening area of subsidence will affect relocation plans. 
 
NO COMMENT FROM VICTIMS 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Evacuees living in the Porong Market for the past year 
had no comment on recent developments.  A contact at the market 
told the Consulate that reaction was muted because SBY had not 
visited as scheduled and expectations for government action were 
low.  SBY has now made two fly-overs, but never visited the 
mud-flow site or the market.  On June 24, SBY hosted an 
emotional visit by mud-flow victims at the Presidential Palace 
and promised funding for infrastructure and resettlement. There 
is little evidence that any money has been dispersed. (Ref B) 
Our contact added that 20 families from Renokenongo village, 
displaced by the collapse of Dam 42 (Ref C), had moved into the 
market, bringing the total back up to approximately 2,500 people. 
MCCLELLAND