VZCZCXRO7582
PP RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHJS #0058/01 2911054
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 181054Z OCT 07
FM AMCONSUL SURABAYA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0081
INFO RUEHBK/AMEMBASSY BANGKOK PRIORITY 0005
RUEHJA/AMEMBASSY JAKARTA PRIORITY 0073
RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 0022
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 0024
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEHJS/AMCONSUL SURABAYA 0083

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SURABAYA 000058 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT PLEASE PASS AID FOR OFDA 
DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS 
JAKARTA FOR AID (NAKATSUMA) 
BANGKOK FOR RDM ASIA/OFDA (BARTON) 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID PGOV ECON ID
SUBJECT: EAST JAVA'S MT. KELUD VOLCANO: ERUPTION THREAT REMAINS WHILE 
EVACUEES RETURN HOME 
 
 
SURABAYA 00000058  001.4 OF 002 
 
 
¶1.  Increased seismic activity on Mt. Kelud, a volcano 90 km 
southwest of Surabaya,  East Java caused authorities to raise 
the eruption threat level to 4, the highest possible. 
Authorities recommended the voluntary evacuation of residents 
within 10 kilometers of the mountain on October 16.  Consulate 
General Surabaya Pol/Econ Officer visited two refugee centers 
and an Indonesian Army (TNI) refugee assistance staging area on 
17 October.  These sites are all within 15 kilometers of Mt. 
Kelud.  One center is located in the town of Ngancar in Kediri 
Regency; the other center and TNI staging area are located in 
the town of Penataran in Blitar Regency.  Kelud last erupted in 
1990, killing at least 30 people according to press reports. A 
1919 eruption claimed an estimated 5,000 lives. 
 
ERUPTION "IMMINENT," BUT WHO KNOWS WHEN 
--------------------------------------------- ----------------- 
 
¶2. As of 18 October, the warning status for Mt. Kelud remains at 
the highest level according to the Center for Volcanology and 
Geological Hazard Mitigation.  The Center's Head, Dr. Surono has 
told the press that while tremors have decreased in frequency, 
their amplitude and force remain strong according to instruments 
on the volcano itself.  According to Surono, another clear 
warning sign of a possible eruption is the continued temperature 
increase in the caldera at 15m deep.  Temperatures at this depth 
rose to 37.8 degrees centigrade on October 16 and to 38 degrees 
centigrade on October 17. The deformation process in the crater 
is also increasing, suggesting that an eruption is "imminent." 
 
¶3. The National Coordinating Agency for Disaster Management 
(BAKORNAS PB) reported October 18 that a total of 22,154 persons 
had been displaced: 10,803 in Kediri district and 11,351 in 
Blitar.  BAKORNAS reported that the number of persons displaced 
in Kediri had dropped from a high of 28,130 as villagers 
returned to their homes.  According to the UN Office for 
Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA), World Food 
Program (WFP) and UNICEF teams visited Blitar and Kediri to 
conduct rapid assessments.  They reported that the number of 
displaced persons is decreasing and that the situation is not 
alarming. 
 
VILLAGERS HEAD HOME 
------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  Police and Indonesian Red Cross sources at the camps told 
Pol/Econ Officer that 2000-3000 people were transported, or made 
their own way, to established shelters 15km away from Mt. Kelud 
in towns to the west and south of the volcano.  However, the 
vast majority had returned home by noon on 17 October due to 
concerns over the security of their homes and animals. 
Displaced persons in Penataran told Pol/Econ Officer that many 
people were unwilling to leave during the initial call for 
voluntary evacuation.  Local press reported that an elderly 
woman in the village of Sugihwaras convinced her fellow 
villagers not to leave for refugee centers in Ngancar.  She said 
"Kelud will not erupt -- the signs are not yet there for an 
eruption, and anyway Mt. Kelud would not harm the people of this 
village." 
 
¶5. During Pol/Econ Officer's visit, village officials and 
Indonesian Red Cross workers at an elementary school in Ngancar 
were preparing food for a possible return of displaced persons 
later in the day.  Villages had been evacuated en masse and 
villagers kept together in the shelter.  Signs posted on 
Ngancar's lampposts guided villagers to their respective 
shelters.  The refugee center had registered 1,135 displaced 
persons by dawn on 17 October, however all but a few had 
returned to their village by 2 pm.  The situation at Penataran 
was quiet too.  Pol/Econ Officer spoke with six men who had left 
their coffee fields to stay in the shelter.  They said 100 
people remained scattered at shelters located in a village 
office and school, but the numbers were dwindling.  Villagers 
with animals to look after felt pressure to return home. 
 
NATIONAL RESPONSE 
---------------------------- 
 
¶6.  According to UNOCHA, BAKORNAS held a coordination meeting 
October 17 at the Crisis Center in Jakarta led by the Deputy for 
Emergency Response and attended by relevant government 
institutions to coordinate emergency supplies distributed to 
affected areas.  The Department of Social Affairs has prepared 
 
SURABAYA 00000058  002.4 OF 002 
 
 
100 tons of rice at each district level and 200 tons of rice at 
the provincial level.  Tents for public kitchens, clothing, 
ready-to-eat meals, and 1.5 tons of baby food supplements have 
been prepared for distribution.  The Department of Health has 
already mobilized 50 doctors and 50 medical staff for 41 medical 
services in Kediri and Blitar with the support from community 
health posts (Puskesmas). 100,000 masks have also been 
distributed in Kediri, Blitar, and Malang districts. 
 
¶7. The TNI unit assigned to Penataran set up tents and a field 
kitchen in an open area on the main street.  A TNI officer 
displayed for Pol/Econ Officer a topographic map of Kelud and 
the surrounding villages.  Approximately one hundred small 
villages were color coded to indicate their vulnerability in the 
event of an eruption. The TNI will use trucks to transport 
affected residents to assembly points 50km away if there is a 
serious eruption.  One TNI officer said their unit in Penataran 
stood ready with seven tons of rice supplied by the Blitar 
Regency.  The Governor assured journalists that the province 
stands ready with 500-1000 tons of rice, and the Blitar Regency 
has 200 tons of which 28 tons had been distributed already. 
Questions from journalists regarding rumors of inadequate food 
supplies had earlier reportedly angered the Governor of East 
Java during his October 17 inspection tour of the centers.  Some 
media outlets have reported that the people in charge of 
providing food are running into difficulties due to inaccurate 
counts of the numbers displaced 
 
¶8. COMMENT: Provincial and local government offices appeared to 
have the organization in place to handle a mass evacuation. 
Their challenge remains convincing villagers to leave in time to 
reach safety.  Media reports that at least one village is 
staying put based on the assessment of a village elder.  Similar 
statements by other local leaders could occur elsewhere, and 
hamper evacuation efforts. Additionally, the longer it takes Mt. 
Kelud to erupt, the harder it will be to convince residents of 
the necessity of evacuating.  END COMMENT.MCCLELLAND