VZCZCXRO1546
PP RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHJS #0056/01 2900856
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P R 170856Z OCT 07
FM AMCONSUL SURABAYA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0077
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RUEHJA/AMEMBASSY JAKARTA 0069
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 0020
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 0018
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHMFIUU/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEHJS/AMCONSUL SURABAYA 0079

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SURABAYA 000056 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/MTS AND EB/ESC/IEC 
DEPT FOR DS/IP/EAP 
DOE FOR CUTLER/PI-32 AND NAKANO/PI-42 
COMMERCE FOR USDOC 4430 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EINV EPET ELAB ENRG PGOV ASEC ID
SUBJECT: EAST JAVA: LAPINDO MUD FLOW UPDATE: DAM BREACHED, SECONDARY 
ROAD COVERED IN MUD, ECONOMIC COSTS MOUNTING 
 
REF: A. A) JAKARTA 2771 
 
     ¶B. B) SURABAYA 40 
 
SURABAYA 00000056  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Portions of this message are sensitive but unclassified.  Please 
protect accordingly. 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Hot mud flowing through a breach of dam 42 at 
the mud flow site has covered a secondary road linking Sidoarjo 
and Malang and entered houses and schools of a nearby village. 
Efforts to repair the breach have been unsuccessful and at least 
10 other earthen dams are considered to be in "critical 
condition."  Officials responsible for managing the mud flow 
told local papers that BPLS (the Sidoarajo Mudflow Disaster 
Management Board) will attempt to channel the mud north, into 
existing mud ponds and away from the village.  BPLS's efforts 
are hampered by a shortage of workers during the extended 
Lebaran holiday.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (U) On the evening of October 14, dam 42 near Renokengo 
village gave away, allowing hot mud to flow across the secondary 
road linking Sidoarjo and Malang and into houses and schools. 
According to newspaper reports, two days before, workers had 
noticed a 1 cm crack in the dam, but they decided that the small 
crack was not a threat and took no further action.  A BPLS 
public relations officer described dam 42 as 11.3 meters high 
and 3 meters wide, with the damage affecting 10 meters of the 
dam.  Sandbag repairs temporarily halted the mud's flow, but the 
dam collapsed a second time on the afternoon of October 15 and 
mud continues to flow uninterrupted.  The road will remain 
closed indefinitely, until BPLS can determine how to redirect 
the mud into existing mud ponds. 
 
10 DAMS IN CRITICAL CONDITION 
----------------------------------------- 
¶3. (SBU) Handoko Teguh, the head of mud flow mitigation working 
group of BPLS, told Consulate staff that land around dam 42 had 
subsided 70 cm.  He added that BPLS records report 2 cm 
subsidence per day since May, and predicted that subsidence 
rates would increase in the coming days.  Handoko admitted that 
10 other dykes were in "critical condition" as a result of 
subsidence, with mud levels reaching only 5-10 cms from the top 
of the earthen dams.  He added that there are indications that 
the land subsidence is the result of cracks occurring under the 
dams. Handoko explained that BPLS is having difficulty repairing 
the breach at dam 42 or taking action to patch other cracks 
because many of the workers who normally are on duty to prepare 
sandbags are on leave until October 22 for the Lebaran holiday. 
(Note: Soffian Hadi, the BPLS official charged with managing the 
site, is currently on Lebaran leave.) 
 
¶4. (U) On October 17, Jawa Pos reported that BPLS was attempting 
to channel the mud north, toward mud ponds that are designed to 
handle the overflowing mud.  The area to the north is reportedly 
lower than land toward the Porong River, the primary outlet for 
the mud, in theory making redirecting the mud somewhat easier. 
Workers have reportedly suggested that BPLS install additional 
pipes to channel the mud more easily.  According to a BPLS 
public relations officer, it was unclear when new pipes could be 
installed.  In the meantime, mud will continue to flow across 
the road and into the village. 
 
ECONOMIC COSTS MOUNTING 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) With the toll road permanently under mud, and now a 
secondary road unusable, traffic on the main road through Porong 
town has increased yet again, putting more pressure on local 
shippers, businesses, and residents.  Traffic is being rerouted 
onto tertiary roads through the villages of Glagaharum, 
Kebohuyang, and Besuki.   The mud reportedly inundated homes and 
a local Islamic school (madrasah) run by the Khalid Bin Walid 
Foundation.  Two or eight classrooms, which normally accommodate 
350 students, now contain approximately 20 cms of mud. 
According to the foundation's owner, the school is listed in the 
areas eligible to receive compensation, but the owners have yet 
to receive any money 
 
¶6. (U) Kompas reported October 17 that economic losses in 2006 
alone totaled Rp 13 trillion (USD 144 million).  According to 
Abdul Mongid, an economic observer of the Surabaya Banking 
Academy, detours have forced exporters to pay an additional cost 
 
SURABAYA 00000056  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
of Rp 1 million (USD 111) per container, which translates into 
additional costs of Rp 1 billion (USD 111 thousand) per day. 
The Kompas article added that 22 factories have closed, with 
total loses of Rp 334 billion (USD 37.1 million), and an 
estimated 127.29 hectares of agricultural land has been 
destroyed.  These numbers do not include the financial costs 
associated with declining property values, the closure of hotels 
in Probolinggo, Trawas, and Pandaan, and growing unemployment. 
MCCLELLAND