VZCZCXYZ0002
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSN #2169/01 2992109
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 262109Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY SAN SALVADOR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8379
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 002169 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2017 
TAGS: PREL PGOV ES
SUBJECT: (C) ARTURO ZABLAH LIKELY TO RUN; WAITING TO 
FINALIZE COALITION 
 
REF: SAN SALVADOR 1943 
 
Classified By: Michael A. Butler, Charge, for reason 1.4 (d). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: Arturo Zablah told us October 24 he would 
know by the end of the month which parties (FDR, PDC, and CD) 
would support his presidential campaign in coalition, at 
which point he would make a decision and announce his 
candidacy.  At this point, Zablah believes only CD's support 
is still in question, and he suggested he would probably run 
with or without their support.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (C) PolCouns spoke October 24 with Arturo Zablah, probable 
presidential candidate for a coalition led by the FDR and 
other small, centrist parties.  Since we last spoke September 
18, Zablah and a small group of advisors have been visiting 
towns and cities around El Salvador to gauge support for a 
possible candidacy, based on the plan he announced in 
September (Reftel).  He said two primary reasons for 
believing his could be a viable candidacy were that almost 20 
years of ARENA government had left a "bad taste" in many 
Salvadorans' mouths and that no amount of "makeup" would 
disguise FMLN candidate Mauricio Funes' left-wing orientation 
or the true intentions of the hard core of the FMLN.  Zablah 
cited recent polling data from Costa Rican firm Borges 
suggesting some 60 percent of Salvadorans described 
themselves as centrists (not counting those who did not 
respond or did know know).  Over 80 percent said they would 
not vote for a party that would endanger relations with the 
U.S., and over 70 percent said they believed election of the 
FMLN would damage U.S.-Salvadoran relations. 
 
¶3. (C) Zablah told us that talks with the PDC to form a 
coalition with FDR supporting his candidacy are "well 
underway" and described them as all but complete.  He said 
similar discussions with the CD are ongoing, but not as 
advanced, as the CD continues to hold out for the VP slot on 
the FMLN ticket.  (Note: The FMLN has named Salvador Sanchez 
Ceren as its VP candidate, running with Mauricio Funes, and 
has publicly made clear that this decision is final.  Zablah 
understands the CD has been told the same privately a number 
of times, as well.  End note.)  Zablah hopes all three 
parties (FDR, PDC, and CD) will join in a coalition, since 
the three together would provide an ideological balance 
across the center of the political spectrum (from Christian 
Democrat to centrist socialist) and would provide substantial 
structure and party machinery.  The three together would also 
expect to hold from 15 to 25 seats in El Salvador's 84-seat 
Assembly, not a majority, but enough to build coalitions with 
other parties (Zablah believes ARENA would be most likely to 
cooperate.)  Zablah reported the CD has a self-imposed 
deadline of the end of October to make a decision on joining 
this coalition.  Pressed, Zablah said he was leaning towards 
running even without CD's support, but would prefer a 
three-party coalition. 
 
¶4. (C) Asked if PDC's support came with conditions, 
especially in terms of his running mate, Zablah said no, and 
said the PDC's Rodolfo Parker had told him charismatic San 
Miguel mayor Will Salgado would seek re-election.  (Comment: 
Given our recent conversations with Salgado (Septel) and 
Salgado's penchant for changing party affiliations, this may 
be wishful thinking.)  Zablah suggested he was talking with 
several possible running mates, and said he was seeking 
another outsider like himself, as opposed to someone 
currently holding political office. 
 
¶5. (C) Zablah said that with a party machine, a campaign 
platform and strategy ready or being developed, the remaining 
challenge was financing -- clean financing.  He estimates 
that with $10 million he can mount a credible campaign.  Of 
that, he anticipates half would come from about 100 wealthy 
business donors, some $3 million from the funds provided by 
the central government to political parties in the form of 
campaign financing, and the rest from small donors. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Zablah plans to travel to the U.S. November 1 to 
participate in a conference in Los Angeles and later visit 
Washington where he plans to meet with State and USAID 
officials, among others.  Zablah plans to announce his run 
for the Presidency soon after he returns, if his decision is 
positive. 
 
¶7. (C) Comment: Zablah, a former ARENA Minister of Economy, 
enjoys a positive reputation among Salvadorans but will face 
an uphill battle if he chooses to run.  The entrenched party 
machinery of the FMLN and ARENA will pose a challenge, as 
will voters' fear of throwing away a vote on a doomed 
third-party candidate.  If, however, his campaign gains 
traction and appears poised to force a second round in 
presidential voting, Zablah could conceivably force both the 
FMLN and ARENA to compete more intensely for the center, 
drawing them away from the comfort zone of their hard-core 
supporters. 
Butler