VZCZCXRO3199
OO RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH
DE RUEHGO #0948/01 2741129
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 011129Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY RANGOON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6599
INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 0549
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 4081
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 7639
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 5198
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0984
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000948 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/MLS, DRL, AND IO 
PACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/30/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BM
SUBJECT: BURMA: A REVOLUTION PAUSES - ANGER SEETHES 
 
REF: RANGOON 941 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: P/E Chief Leslie Hayden for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d) 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  Summary:  The appearance of normalcy returned to 
Rangoon today.   Many barricades have been removed from 
downtown intersections, monasteries, and the Shwe Dagon 
Pagoda.  Military and police are stationed throughout the 
city, although in fewer numbers.  UN Special Envoy Gambari 
was whisked to Nay Pyi Taw last night after meeting with Aung 
San Suu Kyi and is scheduled to meet with Senior General Than 
Shwe on Tuesday morning.  Nightly raids on monasteries 
continue and several hundred monks and civilians are 
reportedly being detained in horrific conditions at an 
abandoned University campus in Rangoon.  The public mood is a 
mixture of fear, depression, hopelessness, and seething 
anger.  The regime's heavy-handed tactics against the revered 
clergy and peaceful demonstrators has turned many of the 
politically neutral in favor of the recent demonstrators 
while others remain convinced that the government's crackdown 
shows the futility of trying to resist the regime.  End 
summary. 
 
The Situation on the Ground: 
---------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) The appearance of normalcy returned to Rangoon 
today.  Many shops have reopened and barricades have been 
removed from many streets downtown and from the Shwe Dagon 
Pagoda.  Many monasteries had their gates opened today, 
although Rangoon's ubiquitous monks were glaringly absent and 
the buildings were eerily empty.  We have received reports 
that young monks are fleeing Rangoon after being ordered to 
leave monasteries.  Several sources have told us the army 
continues to raid monasteries on a nightly basis, usually 
around 2:00 a.m.  Before the raids start, army troops occupy 
residences surrounding the monasteries to ensure residents do 
not look out the windows or go outside to witness the raid. 
Troops then move into the monasteries to brutalize, 
terrorize, and arrest the monks.  Several hundred monks and 
civilians are reportedly being detained at Rangoon's former 
Government Technical Institute (GTI) in horrific conditions. 
According to a woman whose son was randomly detained during a 
demonstration, and who gained access to GTI from a 
sympathetic policeman, hundreds of monks and civilians are 
crammed into each room, with no toilet or sanitary facilities 
and no room to lie down and sleep.  We have also heard that 
many of the monks and nuns from GTI are refusing any food 
from the military officers detaining them. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) We also received reports that random raids and 
roundups by the military throughout the city took place over 
the weekend.  Groups of more than five people, including 
patrons of prominent teashops and businesses appear to have 
been fair game, and many customers were reportedly beaten and 
detained without cause.  Embassy officers and their contacts 
witnessed police and military conducting random searches of 
public transportation and detaining people with cameras or 
anyone who aroused suspicion.  At night, during the curfew, 
police and military trucks continue to circulate throughout 
neighborhoods announcing that anyone found with pictures of 
the demonstrations and the military crackdown will be 
arrested.  Over the weekend, the army conducted several raids 
on the homes and offices of NLD members throughout the 
country.  In Mandalay, eighty-five NLD members have 
reportedly been arrested including prominent NLD leader Win 
Win Mya. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Although we continue to hear rumors of a split 
between Senior General Than Shwe and his deputy Maung Aye, we 
are unable to confirm them.  However, rumors of differences 
between the two have circulated for more than a decade. 
Rumors that pious Buddhist military commanders are outraged 
by the brutality against the clergy and contemplating 
disobeying their orders have begun to circulate.  In Rangoon, 
troops appear organized and disciplined and are carrying out 
their orders.  So nothing on the surface indicates any 
divisions among the military. 
 
 
RANGOON 00000948  002 OF 002 
 
 
Little Confidence in Gambari 
---------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C) After his meeting with Aung San Suu Kyi yesterday, 
Gambari was whisked back to Nay Pyi Taw by his SPDC minders. 
He supposedly has no meetings planned for today, but should 
meet with Senior General Than Shwe on Tuesday morning after 
which he will reportedly depart Burma via Rangoon.  We do not 
know yet whether he will meet with diplomats prior to his 
departure as he did previously.  Meetings with detained 88 
Generation Students leaders Min Ko Naing and Ko Ko Gyi have 
not materialized, to the disappointment of many hopefully 
tracking Gambari's visit.  Many of the Burmese we spoke to 
expressed their lack of confidence in Gambari and the UN's 
ability to negotiate a resolution with the Generals.  They 
feel Gambari's visits are filled with meaningless talk and no 
concrete results.  Others view him not only as useless, but 
as counterproductive, giving cover to the regime's defenders 
who point to Gambari's visits as evidence the regime is 
trying to cooperate with the UN to resolve the current 
crisis.  If Gambari is unwilling to stand up to the Generals 
even on the matter of his schedule, and successfully demand 
meetings with key opposition leaders, Burmese doubt he will 
deliver the hard messages the Generals need to hear.  Our 
Burmese contacts also have commented that Gambari's continued 
focus on increasing humanitarian space, rather than on 
solving underlying political problems causing the 
humanitarian crisis, gives them no confidence in Gambari 
 
Status of the Opposition 
------------------------ 
 
¶6.  (SBU) The mood on the ground in Rangoon is a mix of 
seething anger, shock, depression, fear, and hopelessness. 
The heavy-handedness of the military's attack on the revered 
Buddhist clergy has moved the sympathies of the politically 
neutral over to support for the recent protesters.  Others 
have cited the harsh crackdown as proving the futility of 
resisting the military.  The sheer overkill of the crackdown 
appears to have hardened the resolve of the political 
activists who have avoided arrest.  They told us they may 
stop their demonstrations temporarily to regroup and 
strategize, but they remain determined to carry on with 
peaceful protests.  It remains to be seen how effective the 
remnants of the pro-democracy opposition can be.  The 
military has systematically and efficiently decimated the 
movement, jailing almost all key leaders and organizers. 
Those lucky enough to escape have gone into hiding.  The 
NLD's elderly and ineffective leaders remain tellingly free 
and deafeningly silent - these men are no threat to the 
generals' rule. 
 
The "Roadmap to Democracy" 
-------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (C) Comment:  The regime's farcical quest for legitimacy 
through their "roadmap to democracy" is over.  Their brutal 
crackdown conducted over the last few days has made clear to 
the entire world they derive their power only from the barrel 
of a gun.  Their brutal tactics against the revered clergy 
and peaceful demonstrators has resulted in a palpable change 
of public opinion.  Those previously neutral towards the 
"roadmap to democracy" and politics in general are now 
beginning to align against the regime.  For now, fear has 
enabled the military to restore some semblance of the tenuous 
status quo.  It remains to be seen how long this can last. 
End comment. 
 
 
VILLAROSA