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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 004456 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/01/2017 
TAGS: PREL PGOV KNNP PARM TSPL ETTC ENRG TRGY IN
SUBJECT: WEST BENGAL CPM LEADER STANDS STRONG AGAINST 
HARDLINERS IN SUPPORT OF 123 AGREEMENT 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B,D) 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY:  Following two days of Communist Party of 
India-Marxist (CPM) central committee meetings September 
29-30 in Kolkata,  West Bengal Chief Minister Jyoti Basu took 
a stand separating himself and his clique from the hardliners 
opposed to the 123 Agreement and the Indo-U.S. civil nuclear 
initiative.  Basu held off CPM members opposed to the deal by 
stating that the CPM could not decide upon its next plan of 
action until the final two UPA-Left meetings to discuss the 
initiative were held October 5 and 14.  However, Deepak 
Choudhury (personal secretary to the Minister of Science and 
Technology) predicted to Kolkata ConGen September 30 that the 
Left representatives to the next UPA-Left meeting would 
either not show up or walk out of the meeting in protest. 
Sanjaya Baru, Media Advisor to the Prime Minister, told 
PolCouns September 28 that he expected the CPM would look for 
a face-saving way out of the political crisis in order to 
avoid early elections, in which the CPM would not likely fare 
well.  Karat's bark may be worse than his bite, and the 
louder the CPM opposes the nuclear deal, the more likely it 
is that compromises are in the works with the UPA behind the 
scenes.  END SUMMARY. 
 
West Bengal Takes a Stand Against Hardliners 
------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  West Bengal Chief Minister (and CPM senior-most 
member) Jyoti Basu reportedly leaned on the hardliners 
opposing the U.S.-India civil nuclear agreement at the CPM's 
two-day Central Committee meeting in Kolkata.  "Let's see 
whether the Congress offers any concession at the two 
meetings of the UPA-Left committee.  Only then can we decide 
our next action," Basu stated September 30 in Kolkata, 
according to the press.   "The Telegraph" called Basu's 
comments a "clear signal to the party hardliners to hold 
their fire until the mechanism wraps up the next two rounds." 
 
 
¶3.  (SBU) "The Pioneer" took a dimmer view, reporting that 
the UPA-Left committee meetings, scheduled for October 5 and 
14, were to be "an exercise in buying time," and that the 
Left had already decided to withdraw support for the UPA 
government.  "The withdrawal of support is inevitable.  It is 
a question of time and strategy,"  Left sources reportedly 
said.  CPM Central Committee member M.K. Pandhe maintained a 
tough stance in opposition to the deal and the UPA 
government, reportedly declaring, "We are still firm on our 
opposition to the deal.  We will not allow operationalizing 
(of) the deal." 
 
Is There a Face-Saving Way Out for the CPM? 
------- 
 
¶4.  (C) At a reception September 28, Sanjaya Baru, Media 
Advisor to the Prime Minister, told PolCouns that all eyes in 
the Congress and United Progressive Alliance (UPA) were now 
on Kolkata.  Delhi's political barons wondered if the 
Communists would meet and find a face-saving way out of the 
political crisis, which would allow them to avoid an early 
election, or if they would come out breathing fire and 
demanding a vote of no-confidence in the Prime Minister. 
Baru assessed that CPM leader Prakash Karat's calculus is 
based on his need to survive the next CPM general congress 
which normally should take place in April 2008.  If Karat's 
strident rhetoric and calls for early elections leads to 
elections in which the Left loses seats in the Lok Sabha 
(Lower House of Parliament), he will be on thin ice.  Karat, 
thought Baru, had calculated that the Congress would dump PM 
Manmohan Singh when the political crisis began in August, but 
the Congress had instead rallied to its Prime Minister and to 
the nuclear deal.  Because Karat's strategy misfired, he now 
faces an uncertain future within the CPM. 
 
¶5.  (C) Baru dismissed Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) supremo and 
 
NEW DELHI 00004456  002 OF 003 
 
 
Uttar Pradesh (UP) Chief Minister Mayawati's chances to break 
out of UP and affect the national vote.  He cautioned against 
buying into the hype surrounding Mayawati, arguing that she 
cannot count on more than 80 or 90 seats at best.  In Gujarat 
and Rajasthan her appeal is limited, and she can only expect 
to gain a bit in Madhya Pradesh.  As for the Bharatiya Janata 
Party (BJP), Baru said they are simply not ready and an early 
poll may not help them. 
 
¶6.  (C) At the same reception September 28, a vernacular 
journalist who is extremely close to Defense Minister Antony 
and National Security Advisor Narayanan told DepPolCouns that 
he thought the government would pass a law by presidential 
decree sometime after the CPM meeting ends on October 5 that 
would address some of the concerns the CPM and the BJP have 
about the Hyde Act and would gloss over some of the harshest 
areas of disagreement about the nuclear deal.  Such a law, 
the journalist calculated, would permit the CPM to withdraw 
its horns, claim "victory," and find a face-saving way out. 
Once the law was passed, the Congress would accelerate 
efforts to move forward with the nuclear deal, especially the 
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards 
agreement, he added.  Asked whether such a law might arouse 
the ire of the U.S. Congress, the journalist shrugged and 
said that what was "sauce for the goose was also sauce for 
the gander." 
 
Minister for Science Says the Deal Will Go Forward Despite 
Mid-term Elections 
------- 
 
¶7.  (C) On September 30, Kolkata ConGen spoke with Minister 
for Science and Technology Kapil Sibal about the present 
state of play on the 123 agreement.  ConGen asked Sibal 
whether he had an opportunity to meet with any of the CPM 
leadership in Kolkata as his visit coincided with the party's 
Politburo and Central Committee meetings in the city.  Sibal 
was evasive, but in separate conversations with his personal 
secretary Deepak Choudhury, Choudhury confirmed that Sibal 
 
SIPDIS 
has been traveling to pitch the civil nuclear agreement and 
had recently been in the other Leftist stronghold of Kerala, 
implying Sibal was acting as pitchman to the Left.  Sibal was 
hesitant to provide details on his impressions about how the 
Left's opposition to the 123 would develop, but he did 
indicate that he thought midterm elections would be likely. 
When asked if the Government of India (GOI) would go forward 
with "operationalizing" the agreement, in conducting further 
negotiations with the International Atomic Energy Agency 
(IAEA) and the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) over the 
objections of the Left, Sibal confidently responded that yes, 
the GOI would conduct further international meetings on the 
civil nuclear agreement. 
 
The Left and UPA Headed for a Final Break? 
------- 
 
¶8.  (C) Choudhury told ConGen that he anticipated that the 
Left representatives to the UPA-Left committee to discuss the 
123 Agreement would not attend or would walk out of the 
October 5 meeting.  Another meeting was to follow on October 
¶14.  Choudhury believed that the Left and UPA were coming to 
a final break over the 123 Agreement in October. 
 
Looking for Concessions from Washington 
------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Seizing on erroneous press reporting of statements 
by Assistant Secretary Boucher, Central Committee members 
claimed the U.S. had "no timeline" for operationalizing the 
nuclear deal.  The "Times of India" reported Foreign Minister 
Mukherjee was expected to "be able to extract some 
concessions from Washington on the nuclear deal" during his 
visit to the U.S. 
 
Comment:  The Louder the Bark, the Smaller the Bite 
 
NEW DELHI 00004456  003 OF 003 
 
 
------- 
 
¶10.  (C) While Baru, Basu, and Sibal give differing views on 
the Left's likely course of action, Post believes CPM is 
indeed seeking a face-saving way to allow the government to 
close the civil nuclear deal while avoiding early elections. 
Contacts here suggest the longer and louder the CPM 
hardliners bark and speak out against the nuclear deal, the 
more likely it is that back room compromises are in the works 
to preserve it.  The Left's position will become more clear 
following the UPA-Left meeting on the nuclear deal October 5, 
and IAEA Director General El Baradei's visit to New Delhi the 
week of October 8.  Contacts tell us the UPA-Left Committee 
will hold a fourth meeting on October 14, buying more time 
for FM Mukherjee to work out a deal with the Left, and 
possibly delaying further textual negotiations betweeen the 
GOI and IAEA.  Post will continue to follow the Left's 
machinations closely through this period of Central Committee 
deliberations and sparring with the UPA.  End comment. 
WHITE