VZCZCXRO7957
RR RUEHTRO
DE RUEHNJ #0792/01 2851052
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 121052Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY NDJAMENA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5786
INFO RUEHJL/AMEMBASSY BANJUL 0036
RUEHCO/AMEMBASSY COTONOU 0384
RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM 0494
RUEHLC/AMEMBASSY LIBREVILLE 1034
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 1739
RUEHNM/AMEMBASSY NIAMEY 2999
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 2258
RUEHTRO/AMEMBASSY TRIPOLI 0433
RUEHYD/AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE 1617
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NDJAMENA 000792 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR AF/C, PARIS AND LONDON FOR AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL LY GB BN CD
SUBJECT: PEACE ACCORDS MULTIPLY WITH FRINGE CHAD REBEL 
GROUPS 
 
REF: A. NDJAMENA 751 
     ¶B. COTONOU 779 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary. Five minor Chadian rebel/exile groups have 
signed generic peace agreements with the Government of Chad 
(GOC) in the last two weeks.  The agreements include amnesty 
for rebels and a commitment to integrate rebel forces into 
the Chadian army and civil service.  Negotiations in Tripoli 
with the two major rebel groups belonging to Mahamat Nouri 
and Timan Erdimi appear to be making headway, but are not as 
advanced. Local commentators are deeply skeptical of the 
trustworthiness of any party to these agreements, and believe 
that it is only a matter of time before new challenges to the 
regime will arise. End summary. 
 
SIGNING CEREMONY IN NDJAMENA MARKS PEACE WITH ARAB GROUP 
 
¶2.  (U) On October 1, the diplomatic community was invited to 
the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to witness the signing of a 
peace agreement between the Government of Chad (represented 
by Minister of Infrastructure Adam Younousmi) and Ali Ahmat 
Akbach, President of the CDRT (Chadian Democratic and 
Revolutionary Council). (Comment: the CDRT is a Rachid  Arab 
group based in Batha whose origins date back to the early 
eighties. End comment.)  Chadian Intelligence Chief Chaibo 
was also present on the podium. Libyan Foreign Minister 
Treiki witnessed the signing, and both parties acknowledged 
the support of Libyan mediation in reaching the agreement. 
The twelve articles of the accord call for a cease-fire, 
exchange of prisoners, a general amnesty and for the 
cantonment and disarmament of CDRT forces (said to number 
some 100). The CDRT is free to become a recognized political 
party if it wishes, and CDR cadres are to be integrated into 
the Chadian army or civil service.  Minister Younousmi was 
fulsome in his praise of Libyan President Ghaddafi and 
Libya's efforts to assist Chadian national reconciliation. 
 
CONFLICTING REPORTS OF AGREEMENTS IN TRIPOLI 
 
¶3. (U) Two days later an agreement was reported on Radio 
France International (RFI) between the Government and four 
rebel groups in Tripoli: RFC, CNT, UFDD and UFDD 
Fondamentale.  Of these four, however, only UFDD Fondamentale 
(led by Arab leader and former Ambassador to the United 
States Acheikh Ibn Oumar) hewed to the government line that a 
decisive peace agreement had been signed.  In subsequent 
reports the "signature" was downgraded to "initialing;" the 
agreement itself was apparently only for a three week 
cease-fire during which time negotiations would take place. 
UFDD leader Mahamat Nouri (former Defense Minister) told the 
media that "the struggle still continues."  RFC leader Timan 
Erdimi told RFI that what had been agreed was the "principle 
of reconciliation and durable peace."  He added,"the details 
still need to be worked out." As reported in Reftel A, the 
question of disarmament appears to be the most contentious, 
although the number and level of ministerial appointments is 
also considered to be an important point of discussion 
between the rebels and the government delegation. 
 
BENIN GROUP SIGNS - LIBREVILLE NEXT? 
 
¶4.  (U) On October 10 agreement was reached between the 
Government of Chad and four minor exile groups (RDT, UPTRN, 
ANR and GPI) based in Benin (Reftel B).  Senior Chadian 
Minister Haroun Kabadi (currently Minister of Agriculture, 
formerly Coordinator of the National Petroleum Office) led 
the negotiation.  The agreement followed the same format as 
that used for the CDRT. Separate negotiations are reported to 
be ongoing with additional groups in Libreville, Gabon, under 
the purview of former Chadian President Goukouni Weddeye. 
 
N'DJAMENA RUMOR MILLS RUN ON NOUR 
 
¶5. (SBU) Meanwhile, speculation on the status of the January 
2007 agreement between the GOC and FUC rebel leader Mahamat 
Nour keeps the N'Djamena rumor mills working.  Given the 
unveiled ambition of (now) Defense Minister Nour, the 
off-and-on difficulties in integrating FUC troops in the 
Chadian army (ANT), and the continuing spikes in conflict 
 
NDJAMENA 00000792  002 OF 002 
 
 
between Tama and Zaghawa in the Guereda region, most Chadians 
think it is only a matter of time before Nour and President 
Deby have a falling out. The disposition of FUC troops loyal 
to Nour is a source of constant comment (and concern).  Last 
month rumors circulated that Nour's house had been taken 
over; this week the rumor is that he was poisoned and had to 
be medevaced to France.  In an RFI radio broadcast on October 
12 Nour denied that he had been poisoned, and said that his 
relationship with President Deby was fine (although he could 
not say the same thing for some of Deby's close advisers.) 
He said that he hoped to return to Chad soon. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
¶6. (SBU) With the exception of Nouri and Erdimi, the groups 
that have signed peace agreements are marginal and do not 
represent a serious threat.  However, it is also acknowledged 
that Nouri and Erdimi seem to be moving faster towards some 
kind of reconciliation than most observers thought possible, 
given the deep enmity and profound lack of trust between 
these individuals and President Deby. 
 
¶7. (SBU)  What is striking is the lack of confidence that the 
average Chadian feels in the stability which external 
observers consider the country to have enjoyed since January 
¶2007.  Local commentators scoff at the appearances of "peace 
breaking out." Most view the accords with the armed 
opposition as a "show" and consider all parties - on the 
government side as well as the rebel side - to be chronically 
untrustworthy.  The most jaundiced observers view the 
agreement reached August 13 with the political opposition as 
a cynical "selling out" by opposition politicians who were 
willing to exchange their integrity for another shot at 
government positions. 
 
¶8. (SBU) That being said, those citizens with a grievance are 
rapidly finding their mouthpieces vanishing as group after 
group puts down their weapons (real or figurative) and comes 
in from the cold.  Is it just a matter of time before a new 
group springs up to protest what is perceived to be the 
widespread corruption and relentlessly autocratic governance 
of the Deby regime? 
 
¶9. Minimized considered. 
TAMLYN