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DE RUEHNR #4234/01 2991209
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P 261209Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3142
INFO RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 9630
RUEHDR/AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM 5537
RUEHLGB/AMEMBASSY KIGALI 4957
RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM 1603
RUEHDJ/AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI 4895
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 2438
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 2365

UNCLAS NAIROBI 004234 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUMPREL KE
SUBJECT:  KENYA ELECTIONS: PARTY PRIMARIES TRIGGER SOME VIOLENCE 
 
REF: NAIROBI 3761 AND PREVIOUS 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  In the run-up to Kenya's national elections, some 
violence is occurring.  Clashes have happened in areas which so 
strongly favor one party that the person who secures the party 
nomination is essentially assured of winning the Parliamentary seat. 
 This type of intra-party violence could increase in the coming 
weeks.  For example, in Odinga country, some Nyanza Province youth 
have already armed themselves in expectation of clashes during the 
mid-November party nomination process.  If primary voters in Nyanza, 
or elsewhere, perceive that the upcoming party nomination processes 
are not free and fair, more 
bloodshed is a virtual guarantee, we heard.  The Mission, as part of 
our larger effort to contain electoral violence, has been actively 
monitoring primary season hotspots over the last several months and 
will send 16 observer teams to such areas during the actual 
nomination days next month.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (SBU) As Kenyan party primaries near, clashes have been occurring 
in areas which so strongly favor one party that the person who 
secures the party nomination is essentially assured of winning the 
Parliamentary seat.  All indications are that this type of 
intra-party violence will increase in the coming weeks.  Now that 
President Kibaki has dissolved Parliament, sitting MPs have returned 
to their constituencies to fight for their political lives (reftel). 
Nationally, Kenyan voters typically return only about 50 percent of 
 
incumbents to office, but this year it is virtually unanimous among 
political observers that there may be an even higher turn-over rate 
(up to 70 percent) because the mood for change among voters is so 
pronounced this year.  So, quite literally, the fight is on. 
 
A MICROCOSM: TENSIONS IN ODM HEARTLAND 
 
¶3. (SBU) Responding to the rumors of campaign season violence, 
PolOff visited the opposition Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) 
stronghold of Nyanza Province on October 17 and 18.  Nyanza is home 
to the Luo People, who are expected to overwhelmingly vote ODM and 
Raila Odinga in 
numbers predicted to exceed 85 percent.  While other parties are 
fielding candidates, none have a realistic chance of prevailing over 
whoever wins the ODM nomination.  During a meeting in the provincial 
capital, Kisumu, District Commissioner Jamleck Baruga told us that 
eight candidates are vying for the ODM nomination in the Kisumu MP 
race.  Some supporters of these candidates are currently recovering 
in the hospital from stab wounds.  The violence to date largely 
appears to be of the impromptu variety.  Organized violence could be 
expected 
closer to primary election day, especially if Raila Odinga starts 
hand-picking who will win ODM nominations in Nyanza.  Similarly, the 
days when one of Kenya's old ethnic barons could 
safely deliver their block of votes are ending, we heard. 
Accordingly, nominating-by-fiat will inflame local passions. 
 
¶4. (SBU) We also met with the Alego Usonga District MP candidate 
Raymond Muhula.  Muhula is charismatic, 36 years old, and 
U.S.-educated.  The youngest aspirant in the race, Muhula has 
branded himself as the "youth candidate."  He repeated Commissioner 
Baruga's warning that any attempt by Odinga to handpick a candidate 
would be "completely rejected."  He accused two more seasoned 
contestants, Edwin Yinda and Oloo Aringo (current chairperson of 
Kenya's Parliamentary Service Commission) of employing thugs.  In 
response, youths in the district 
have armed themselves and are preparing for a fight.  This was a 
warning we heard repeated by nervous local citizens on street 
corners and in marketplaces throughout Nyanza. 
 
COMMENT 
 
¶5. (SBU) The first flashes of party primary violence in Nyanza are a 
microcosm of what is occurring nationally within an electorate that 
appears tired of being told what to do by their tribal leaders.  If 
primary voters in Nyanza, or elsewhere, perceive that the upcoming 
party nomination processes are not free and fair, more blood shed is 
a virtual guarantee.  The Mission, consequently, has been actively 
monitoring primary season hotspots over 
the last several months and, once we receive requested party 
permission, we will send 16 observer teams to such areas during the 
actual nomination days next month.  These efforts to lessen or 
prevent electoral violence are in addition to the USG funding of 
district-level Peace Committees and Kenyan Domestic Observers 
(through the UNDP), our sponsorship of the anti-violence "Umoja 
Pamoja" youth music campaign, and repeated public response and 
high-level GOK engagement by the Ambassador and other Mission 
personnel whenever campaign-related 
violence has struck.  End comment. 
 
Ranneberger