VZCZCXRO6803
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHTO #1239/01 2961001
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 231001Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY MAPUTO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8113
RUEHSB/AMEMBASSY HARARE 1089
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0064
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MAPUTO 001239 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PHUM SMIG PREF MZ ZM
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWEAN MIGRATION TO MOZAMBIQUE: OPINIONS VARY 
 
REF: STATE 109594 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1. (SBU) NGO and local government officials in Manica Province, 
which shares a border with Zimbabwe, estimate that up to 10,000 
Zimbabweans are currently living in Manica Province, with new 
arrivals every day.  In response to the uncertainty of the 
situation, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) 
in Mozambique has been monitoring the border and has recently 
updated its contingency plan should the situation in Zimbabwe 
continue to deteriorate.  The British High Commission in Maputo is 
also closely watching Zimbabwe and has formulated its own plan for 
fleeing UK, Irish and Canadian citizens that may enter Mozambique. 
While the national government (GRM) has yet to implement a plan, it 
has lifted visa requirements for Zimbabweans, and believes that 
recent border activity is part of the normal movement of people 
within SADC.  The Embassy continues to coordinate with civil and 
international actors and to press the GRM to consider contingency 
planning - even though a humanitarian crisis may not unfold in the 
short term. 
 
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AT THE BORDER: ZIMBABWEAN NUMBERS INCREASING 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Manica Town in Manica Province sits 18 km from the Zimbabwe 
border and is the first barometer for the situation of Zimbabweans 
crossing into Mozambique.  In a recent visit by PolOff and 
PolSpecialist, the mayor of Manica said his city has grown by the 
thousands in the past few years due to the number of Zimbabweans 
settling in Manica.  While initially most movement consisted of 
women coming to Manica and Chimoio to sell goods or buy commodities 
such as chicken, bread, and sugar, many visitors are now opting to 
stay as the situation in Zimbabwe has become more unstable.  The 
mayor also noted that Zimbabweans continue to stay due to 
difficulties in distinguishing between Zimbabweans and Mozambicans 
(many in the region share a common tribal background) and a lack of 
interest in the issue by local law enforcement officials. 
International Office on Migration officials told PolOff that they 
estimate that there are anywhere from 3,000 to 10,000 Zimbabweans 
currently living in Manica Province, the majority being women.  NGOs 
and local officials agree that cultural and linguistic affinities 
and a history of cross border movement are strong factors that would 
lead Zimbabweans to enter Mozambique in the event of a worsening 
situation. 
 
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UNHCR: NEW CONTINGENCY PLAN IN PLACE 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶3. (SBU) The resident UNHCR director briefed Poloff on 10/15 on the 
organization's border monitoring exercises for the past several 
years and indicated that the UNHCR recently updated its contingency 
plan in the event of a meltdown in Zimbabwe.  As Zimbabweans have 
begun entering South Africa in larger numbers, UNHCR has also made 
the decision to open an office in Chimoio with a staff dedicated to 
border monitoring to see if the same was happening at the Mozambican 
border.  While UNHCR acknowledges a growing number of Zimbabweans 
entering Mozambique, they have had only one case of a Zimbabwean 
requesting refugee status so far.  In most cases, UNHCR has observed 
Zimbabweans integrating relatively easily, particularly since many 
are educated and highly skilled entering a country that continues to 
lack qualified workers.  While UNHCR estimates that up to 75,000 
Zimbabweans could enter Mozambique should the economic situation in 
Zimbabwe collapse, they believe the situation will more likely 
follow the "Angolan model," whereby many Angolans temporarily 
settled and worked in South Africa (although not as refugees) and 
quickly returned once the situation stabilized. 
 
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THE BRITISH: MOZAMBIQUE A TRANSIT ROUTE 
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¶4. (SBU) In a meeting with Emboffs, the British Deputy High 
Commissioner noted that HMG has formulated a comprehensive plan to 
deal with a political/economic collapse in Zimbabwe.  The High 
Commission has already logged all U.K. citizens and dependents, 
along with Canadians and Irish remaining in Zimbabwe, and has 
visited the Mozambique/Zimbabwe border on multiple occasions.  While 
they plan to staff a "greeting center" near Manica should an influx 
of these citizens fleeing Zimbabwe enter Mozambique, they currently 
estimate that because of language issues, citizens likely would only 
use Mozambique as a transit country en route to Malawi or Zambia. 
The High Commission believes that the UNHCR estimate of 75,000 
Zimbabweans potentially fleeing to Mozambique was a very 
conservative figure. 
 
 
MAPUTO 00001239  002 OF 002 
 
 
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GRM: NO VISAS NEEDED, NO REFUGEE PROBLEM 
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¶5. (SBU) On October 3, the governments of Zimbabwe and Mozambique 
agreed to lift visa requirements for citizens entering their 
respective countries as of November 1--Zimbabwe had been the last 
country sharing a border with Mozambique without a visa waiver 
agreement.  While some NGO contacts have confided to Emboffs that 
they fear that the agreement could lead to a massive inflow of 
Zimbabweans, the GRM is dismissing these concerns.  Indeed, even as 
the crisis in Zimbabwe has worsened, the public GRM stance has 
remained unchanged: cross border movement by Zimbabweans into 
Mozambique is part of the natural movement of people from one SADC 
country to another.  As such, the GRM has not participated in any 
contingency planning with the UNHCR or other countries. 
 
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COMMENT 
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¶6. (SBU) The historical movement of people across the shared border 
in the past 30 years, spanning both the Zimbabwean independence war 
and the Mozambican civil war, coupled with cultural, linguistic, and 
familial affinities in the border region could help Zimbabweans to 
temporarily assimilate in Mozambique.  Indeed, absent an influx of 
tens of thousands of Zimbabweans in a very short period of time, 
Mozambique may be able to absorb the new arrivals without creating a 
significant humanitarian problem in the near term.  For now though, 
the GRM is treating the Zimbabwe situation as an internal matter, 
and the status of Zimbabweans in Mozambique remains largely under 
the radar.  The effects of ending visa requirements between the two 
countries remains to be seen, but could make tracking Zimbabweans in 
Mozambique a more difficult task.  Meanwhile, we continue to monitor 
the situation closely, coordinating with civil society and 
diplomatic contacts, while urging GRM counterparts to evaluate 
potential consequences of a worsening situation and to contemplate 
an appropriate response.  END COMMENT 
 
CHAPMAN