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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 002373 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2017 
TAGS: PGOV KCOR KDEM NU
SUBJECT: THE SOCIAL AND POLITICAL REHABILITATION OF ARNOLDO 
ALEMAN? 
 
REF: MANAGUA 2287 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli, reason 1.4 (d) 
 
Summary 
- - - - 
 
¶1.  (C) There is a nascent, subtle process underway in 
Nicaragua that represents a serious threat to the future of 
democracy in the country and, by extension, U.S. interests: 
the public rehabilitation of former President and convicted 
felon Arnoldo Aleman.  Polling data consistently shows that 
Aleman is the least popular politician in the country, but at 
one recent poll indicates that Aleman's numbers may be 
rising.  The mainstream press certainly appears to be taking 
a softer line against Aleman, and the National Assembly is 
likely to approve this fall a revision to the penal code that 
would make Aleman a free man next year.  We believe that 
Aleman continues to represent a significant danger to 
democracy in Nicaragua, and we will watch closely his efforts 
to return to the nation's good graces.  Aleman's return to a 
position of respect and authority would be disastrous for 
this poor nation.  End summary. 
 
Criminal or Party Leader? 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶2.  (C) Poloffs observed Aleman publicly entertaining the 
editorial board of "La Prensa," Nicaragua's main newspaper 
and one of Aleman's foremost critics, at one of Managua's 
"see and be seen" restaurants on October 12.  Officially 
still serving a prison term for money laundering, there are 
no limitations on Aleman's freedom of movement or activities. 
  The "La Prensa" editors told us that the lunch had been 
planned with other members of the PLC to discuss ongoing 
political issues but, in an obvious set up, they were later 
informed that Aleman would be hosting the event.  While still 
holding negative views of his influence on the country, they 
admitted that they were not displeased to have the chance to 
hear Aleman's views firsthand. 
 
¶3.  (C) Over the past few months the press has increasingly 
quoted Aleman as a legitimate commentator on political 
issues.  For some time Aleman's epithet in the mainstream 
Nicaraguan press has been "ex-President and convict;" 
however, this is subtly changing.  Recently, the "and 
convict" part of the epithet has been losing favor in the 
press; sometimes he is simply called "PLC leader."  In early 
October, when members of the International and Regional 
Courts of Justice were gathering in Managua, Aleman was 
invited to attend, which he eagerly did, and was covered 
widely by the press, including publication of front page 
photos of his participation.  We also note that Aleman has 
openly (and shamelessly) called for public participation in 
an upcoming memorial mass to commemorate the death of his 
son. 
 
¶4.  (C) Politicians close to their political bases tell us 
that ironically Aleman is losing the confidence of PLC 
rank-and-file supporters.  On October 16, National Assembly 
backbenchers Elman Urbina and Augusto Valle told the 
Ambassador that, at the grass-roots level, Aleman is 
increasingly unpopular due to his perceived pro-Sandinista 
actions.  However, both Urbina and Valle admitted that 
undermining Aleman's power base in the state institutions -- 
for example, the Comptroller's Office, the Prosecutor's 
Office, the Supreme Court, and the Supreme Electoral Council 
-- would be a long process.  (Note:  Indeed, in mid-September 
Aleman hosted a very public luncheon for roughly 30 of "his" 
people in these institutions.  End note.)  Because of this 
power base, few prominent PLC politicians or activists have 
been willing to openly criticize his continued political 
role.  While we hear among our contacts a few people 
lamenting that there used to be lasting shame attached to a 
criminal sentence in Nicaraguan, the majority of Nicaraguans, 
whether they support Aleman or not, appear to accept as a 
matter of fact that Aleman continues to play an important 
political role in this country. 
 
Immune for Life? 
- - - - - - - - - 
 
¶5.  (C) Meanwhile, the National Assembly is approving, 
point-by-point, a reform to the Nicaraguan penal code.  One 
 of the changes buried in these reforms is a reduction of the 
sentence for money laundering from 20 to 5 years.  We expect 
that this reform will pass.  Aleman, convicted in 2003 for 
money laundering, will probably be a free man in December 
¶2008.  For all intents and purposes Aleman is a free man now; 
a reduction in his sentence will remove the stigma of "and 
convict" from Aleman's title. 
 
¶6.  (C) Aleman's next step, and thus a key reason for the 
effort to rehabilitate his image, will be to return to a 
position of public authority and respect.  The current rules 
of membership bar Aleman from sitting as a National Deputy, 
but there is certain to be an effort in the coming years to 
fudge these rules.  Among the reforms to the constitution 
being discussed by Aleman and Ortega is the notion that all 
former Presidents (and Vice Presidents, and first runners-up 
in presidential elections) will be given National Assembly 
seats for life.  If these reforms come to pass, Aleman will 
regain lifetime criminal immunity as a National Assembly 
Deputy, and, if the Ortega/Aleman "Pacto" succeeds in 
creating the first Prime Minister position in any 
Latin-American country, he conceivably could, as a leader of 
the PLC, hold the reins of power once again.  Even as members 
of Aleman's PLC party flirt with other new opposition 
groupings (reftel), Aleman is working to make sure he's not 
cut out. 
 
¶7.  (C) We also believe there exists a real possibility that 
if Daniel Ortega's polling numbers go down, as he fails to 
fulfill aspirations and deliver on promises, Aleman's 
popularity will rise from the depths.  Already there are 
indications that Aleman's numbers are up slightly.  Results 
from Nicaraguan polling company M&R's September poll show a 5 
percent rise since April in the number of respondents who 
believe that Aleman is the main opposition leader in 
Nicaragua.  (Note:  Eduardo Montealegre's numbers were also 
up, by a smaller margin, so the up-tick for Aleman was not at 
Montealegre's expense; instead there was a marked decrease in 
those who responded "nobody."  Pollsters told us that they 
believe Aleman's increase is mostly the result of growing 
dissatisfaction with Ortega.  End note.) 
 
Comment 
- - - - 
 
¶8.  (C) We see the powerful forces of corruption in this 
country starting the process to rehabilitate Aleman, a 
process abetted by the Nicaraguan political class' apparent 
ignorance of the concept of social shunning.  Aleman's drift 
towards public acceptance is doubtless being engineered with 
the help of Ortega, who understands that a stronger Aleman 
will block any attempt at Liberal unity, thereby boosting 
FSLN fortunes in the 2008 municipal elections.  His return to 
respectability clearly is not in the interests of the United 
States, nor a benefit to anyone who hopes for a brighter 
democratic future in Nicaragua.  For our part, we will 
continue to stand in favor of those who support the 
democratic process and we will continue our efforts against 
corruption.  Sadly, even though his powerbase in the PLC 
party may be weakening, Aleman gives no impression of going 
away. 
TRIVELLI