VZCZCXRO8287
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHLI #2714/01 2971659
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 241659Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY LISBON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6372
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1495
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LISBON 002714 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2016 
TAGS: PREL EUN PGOV IR RS UZ ZL PO
SUBJECT: PORTUGAL ON THE EU-RUSSIA SUMMIT 
 
REF: MOSCOW 5117 
 
Classified By: POL CHIEF TROY FITRELL, REASONS 1.4 (B,D) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary.  Portugal's October 25 bilateral meetings 
with Russia will be designed to keep current relations warm. 
Even the October 26 EU-Russia summit will discuss issues 
generally and in a relatively short format.  The Portuguese 
noted, however, that they do not see the December 10 deadline 
as an end to Kosovo negotiations, suggesting that the review 
of the report and subsequent action may take months.  The 
Portuguese believe Russia will accept an abbreviated OSCE 
election monitoring mission for the December 2 Duma 
elections.  End summary. 
 
¶2. (U) In a pair of tour d'horizon meetings, Portuguese MFA 
Europe Director Liliana Araujo and the Foreign Minister's 
Diplomatic Adviser for Europe Rita Laranjinha discussed the 
October 26 EU-Russia Summit and related topics. 
 
Portugal-Russia 
--------------- 
¶3. (U) President Putin is scheduled to arrive October 25, 
which will be dedicated primarily to bilateral meetings.  He 
will have consecutive courtesy calls on President Cavaco 
Silva and Prime Minister Socrates, followed by the 
inauguration of the Hermitage Museum exhibit in Lisbon.  Also 
on October 25, in the first EU-Russia event of the visit, the 
Portuguese and Russian Ministers of Culture will participate 
at a Permanent Partnership Council dedicated to cultural 
issues. 
 
¶4. (C/NF) Araujo noted that Portuguese-Russian relations are 
relatively warm and Cavaco Silva and Socrates are not 
expected to raise contentious issues at the bilateral 
meetings.  She continued, however, that as they would meet 
without a specific agenda, one could not discount that either 
Cavaco Silva or Socrates would press specific points. 
 
EU-Russia Summit Atmospherics 
----------------------------- 
¶5. (C) Both interlocutors noted that the EU-Russia Summit 
would be short, including a working session of two hours and 
a 90 minute lunch.  Attendees will include Socrates, 
President of the European Commission Durao Barroso, and High 
Representative Solana.  Araujo said the working session would 
be dedicated to the four EU-Russia common spaces:  economic, 
justice/security, external security, and research/education. 
The lunch, she said, would be dedicated to regional and 
international issues, specifically Kosovo, Iran, the Middle 
East Peace Process, and Burma. 
 
¶6. (C/NF) Laranjinha told us that the October 26 EU-Russia 
Summit would not be heavily substantive.  She quoted Minister 
Amado as suggesting that it was a "transition summit" given 
upcoming Duma and presidential elections in Russia and 
political uncertainties in several EU member states.  Araujo 
later added that Portugal's goal was to lay the groundwork 
for a genuine dialogue, so that future such meetings could go 
farther in addressing difficult issues.  At this summit, 
Laranjinha said there would be a deliverable on cultural 
issues, but not on narcotics trafficking, as had been 
originally hoped. 
 
¶7. (C/NF) Laranjinha said that she understood that Russia had 
informally agreed to allow the OSCE to send an observation 
mission for the December 2 Duma elections, and she confirmed 
the issue would be raised during the summit.  Araujo later 
said that it was already too late for a traditional OSCE 
monitoring mission, but that a short-term mission to cover 
the actual election day was likely. 
 
¶8. (C/NF) Araujo noted that Russia had requested CFE be on 
the agenda, but that the EU had refused.  Araujo had told us 
on another occasion that other fora were more appropriate. 
Nonetheless, the EU was prepared for Putin to raise the topic 
anyway and would stress only that Russia should not suspend 
implementation of CFE while current discussions were ongoing. 
 
¶9. (C/NF) Araujo also noted that energy would be discussed 
during the economic common space discussions but it would be 
at a general level.  When specifically pressed on 
transparency in energy investments and on the southern 
corridor, she said the discussions would not reach such a 
level of detail. 
 
Kosovo 
------ 
¶10. (C/NF) Laranjinha said that the Serbs had already 
released a statement to end speculation that they would 
 
LISBON 00002714  002 OF 002 
 
 
support a parallel election process in Kosovo, either 
concurrent with or after the November 17 Kosovo elections. 
Laranjinha said Serbia's entire justification for its 
territorial sovereignty argument was based on its reading of 
UNSCR 1244.  Thus, she said that given that any elections in 
Kosovo not supervised by the international community are 
specifically prohibited by 1244 left Belgrade with little 
other choice. 
 
¶11. (C/NF) Laranjinha stressed the EU's usual points that no 
one must prejudge the troika negotiations until they are 
complete, but added that a December 10 report could not be 
considered an "end."  This report, she posited, must be 
reviewed and acted upon.  She then noted that "some suggest" 
that the review and negotiation process continue until the 
NATO Bucharest Summit in April 2008.  We responded strongly 
to both Laranjinha and Araujo that the troika discussions 
were not open-ended, and that discussion of extensive delays 
would contribute to instability rather than prevent it. 
 
¶12. (C/NF) Laranjinha said Minister Amado appreciated the 
entry of Swedish Foreign Minister Bildt into the discussions, 
given his deep experience in the region.  From the Portuguese 
optic, however, Sweden had taken no leadership role regarding 
any particular policy regarding Kosovo's future. 
 
Iran 
---- 
¶13. (C/NF) Araujo noted her belief that Russia did not want a 
nuclear-armed Iran.  The differences between Russia's 
positions and those of the EU or U.S. is perceptions of 
Iran's current and future capabilities.  Araujo said that the 
EU would push Russia to be active and responsible regarding 
Iran.  It was the EU's position, Araujo noted, that IAEA 
cooperation was welcome, but that Iran must conform to UNSCR 
demands regarding uranium enrichment. 
 
Central Asia 
------------ 
¶14. (C/NF) Following her comment on laying the groundwork for 
dialogue with Russia, Araujo noted that Portugal's engagement 
with Uzbekistan -- built on the German presidency's earlier 
efforts -- was the "hidden success" of Portugal's presidency. 
 Araujo mentioned Nagorno-Karabakh as one of the other 
Central Asian issues that she found troubling.  Araujo noted 
that she would chair a troika on Central Asia in Brussels 
October 29 and would greatly appreciate U.S. questions and 
comments in advance in order to be properly prepared. 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶15. (C) Based on these meetings and a face-to-face discussion 
between Ambassador Hoffman and Foreign Minister Amado today 
(septel), it appears that the Portuguese are intent on making 
the same points that we would make, albeit not as assertively 
as we would like.  Our interlocutors, perhaps anticipating 
criticism of the objectives for the summit, were careful to 
note that the EU-Russia agenda was developed in Brussels, not 
in Lisbon.  We were struck by Laranjinha's report that some 
in the EU are suggesting that Kosovo negotiations may 
continue through April.  That is the first reference to the 
need for a sustained extension beyond December 10 we have 
heard from anyone in the Portuguese government.  Although we 
disputed that point forcefully and will continue to do so, we 
wonder whether this idea is being promoted within the EU, and 
by whom. 
Hoffman