VZCZCXRO3174
OO RUEHCI
DE RUEHKT #1817/01 2741044
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 011044Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7248
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 6091
RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO PRIORITY 6399
RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA PRIORITY 1648
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY 4421
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 5682
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 1917
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA PRIORITY 3811
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 2944
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 001817 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/01/2017 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER EAID KDEM NP
SUBJECT: CA ELECTIONS - TO BE OR NOT TO BE: 51 DAYS 
 
REF: A. KATHMANDU 1755 
     ¶B. KATHMANDU 1792 
     ¶C. KATHMANDU 1744 
 
Classified By: Classified By: Ambassador Nancy J. Powell.  Reasons 1.4 
(b/d). 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (C) The week of September 24-30 ended with an 11th hour 
announcement from the Election Commission (EC) that the 
deadline for candidate nominations for the Constituent 
Assembly (CA) election would be delayed by five days at the 
request of all seven major parties.  The new deadline for 
submission of the closed list of candidates for the 
proportional representation system is October 5 and October 8 
for candidate nominations for the first-past-the-post system. 
 On September 25th the Nepali Congress (NC) and the Nepali 
Congress-Democratic (NC-D) announced the parties' long 
awaited merger (ref B) turning the eight-party alliance into 
a seven party alliance.  The announcement was followed by the 
party's two-day "Mahasamiti" meeting which resulted in a 
manifesto calling for a federal republican state and an end 
to the monarchy.  However, this was not enough to pacify the 
Maoists who continue to threaten to derail the election 
unless their 22 point demands are met.  The EC is moving 
forward with election preparations and voter education 
programs continue throughout the country, but according to 
press reports, the Maoists have prevented a number of 
programs from being held.  Field reports indicate that 
Nepalis remain fearful in the countryside and few truly 
believe an election will be held in November. 
 
Nomination Deadline Extended 
---------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) On Sunday, September 30, after receiving a written 
request from the top seven political parties and the Interim 
Cabinet, the Election Commission (EC) agreed to postpone the 
dates for the submission of the closed list of candidates for 
the proportional representation system from September 30 to 
October 5.  The EC also postponed the filing of candidate 
nominations for the first-past-the-post system from October 5 
to October 8.  Maoist chairman Pushpa Dahal "Prachanda" 
proposed the postponement and the other leaders agreed in 
order to buy time.  The Maoist leadership continues to demand 
that the November 22 polls be held on the basis of full 
proportional representation and the country be declared a 
republic by the interim parliament.  To date Prime Minister 
Koirala has rejected the demand, although the PM has agreed 
that the Interim Parliament will commit to a republic.   With 
the announcement of the postponement the Maoists called off 
the planned September 30 protest in front of the Election 
Commission and converted the program into a mass meeting in 
central Kathmandu.  Talks between the political parties are 
expected to continue as they attempt to defuse the prevailing 
political deadlock resulting from the Maoists threat to 
thwart the Constituent Assembly elections if their demands 
are not met.  (Note: On September 18, the Maoists quit the 
government and announced a nationwide strike threatening to 
foil the CA election if the coalition partners did not agree 
on the Maoists 22-point pre-requisites to ensure meaningful 
polls. (Ref A) End Note.) 
 
Nepali Congress Holds Mahasamiti Meeting 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) On September 25 the Nepali Congress (NC) and the 
Nepali Congress - Democratic (NC-D) announced their 
long-awaited merger turning the eight-party alliance into a 
seven-party alliance (Ref B).  The announcement was followed 
by the united party's two-day policy or general committee 
"Mahasamiti" meeting.  On September 26, the NC approved a 
manifesto for the CA election supporting a federal republican 
state, and multi-party democratic system of government.  The 
manifesto makes significant policy departures in areas such 
as state structure, inner party democracy and security policy 
and calls for end to the monarchy. 
 
 
KATHMANDU 00001817  002 OF 003 
 
 
Maoists Hindering Poll Preparations 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) The Maoist position remains that the CA election will 
be a farce if a republic is not declared in advance and the 
Maoists have vowed to launch protest to disrupt the election 
if their demands are not met.  During the week of September 
24-30 there were a number of reports of disruptions that 
indicate the Maoists should be taken at their word.  In 
Salyan district in the mid-west Maoists have forced the 
closure of voter education programs in several villages.  In 
Baitadi district in the far west Maoists are warning locals 
against participating in the CA election and have beaten and 
threatened a number of officials.  And in Kavre district in 
central Nepal, only a short distance from Kathmandu, the 
Young Communist League (YCL) is reportedly disrupting 
Constituent Assembly poll awareness programs.  There are no 
reports of police intervention, rather the absence of any 
police presence is noticeable. 
 
The Elections Must Go On 
------------------------ 
 
¶5. (C) While the Maoists stage protest and the political 
parties negotiate, election preparations continue.  On 
September 26 the EC approved the opening of offices for the 
Returning Officers in all 240 constituencies (Ref C).  The EC 
has now established an in-house ballot team and has engaged 
two ballot experts, one for ballot design and one for ballot 
production.  USAID's Office of Transition Initiatives began 
its trainings for media monitors and technical staff on 
September 24 and voter education and training for election 
observers are in full force.  However, given the growing 
possibility of a postponement, future expenditures are being 
staggered or delayed where possible. IFES has indicated that 
a 5-day delay will not effect the on-time printing of 
ballots, but there is a limit to the delays that the election 
time-line can absorb. 
 
Planning for Election Security 
------------------------------ 
 
¶6. (C) The EC has put a security plan in place, but there is 
widespread concern that the Maoists may attempt to corral 
polling stations and EC offices throughout the country.  The 
Armed Police are continuing deployment and the Nepal Police 
have circulated a recruiting flyer calling for additional 
temporary security forces.  The police report that the 
response to their recruitment efforts has been disappointing 
and some believe that the Maoists are obstructing the 
process.  Temporary officers are scheduled to report for 
training on October 25. 
 
Factions Fight for Nepal Sadbhavana Party Title 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶7. (C) On September 28, the Election Commission ended the 
debate between the bickering factions of the Nepal Sadbhavana 
Party (Anandadevi) (NSP-A).  The EC decided to recognize the 
faction led by Anandadevi Singh as the legitimate NSP-A 
party.  The EC offered the dissident faction lead by Minister 
for Industry, Commerce and Supplies Rajendra Mahato the 
opportunity to register as a separate party on September 29. 
Mahato responded by announcing a countrywide demonstration in 
front of the EC's offices.   On September 29, as many as 35 
members of the disgruntled faction, including Mahato, were 
detained after burning a copy of the EC's decision in front 
of the EC office in Kathmandu.  Mahato has submitted his 
resignation to the Prime Minister and it was accepted. 
 
Views from the Field 
-------------------- 
 
¶8. (C) Reports from Mission staff in the field indicate that 
many people are still unaware of the upcoming CA election or 
perceive it to be a general election.  Voter education 
efforts are making some progress but there is low 
understanding of the special purpose of a constituent 
assembly election.  In Rupandehi and Palpa in the west, 
reports indicate that campaigning has not begun and most 
 
KATHMANDU 00001817  003 OF 003 
 
 
people do not believe there will be a meaningful election. 
Many fear that an election will bring threats and physical 
violence and almost all agree that corrupt practices will be 
employed.  Reports from Banke, a district in the western 
Terai region, indicate that voter education efforts are under 
way and that people are enthusiastic about the elections. 
However, many of the people do not believe an election will 
actually take place.  NGO partners report that security 
forces have returned and the Maoists are less visible, but a 
persistent fear of physical force, abductions and blockades 
remains.  Reports from Jhapa in the eastern Terai also 
indicate a general skepticism about the election and 
continuing security concerns. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶9. (C) The Elections Commissions 11th hour postponement on 
September 30 of the first of the deadlines for filing of 
candidate lists prevented an immediate showdown between the 
Maoists and the parties.  Yet, the list still must be 
submitted and absent an agreement between the Maoists and the 
parties, the threat to obstruct the November election 
remains.  The political parties solution may be to prolong 
negotiations until it becomes too late to move forward with 
the November polls.  This will leave the EC in the unenviable 
position of calling a postponement - once again.  If the CA 
election is significantly postponed the legitimacy of both 
the EC and the Interim Parliament will be jeopardized. 
Moreover, the reaction in the Terai could be explosive and 
could test the ability of the already dysfunctional Interim 
Government and demoralized police force to maintain control. 
POWELL