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DE RUEHCP #0998/01 3041314
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P 311314Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3899
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COPENHAGEN 000998 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR JUDY ANSLEY, MARIA GERMANO 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM MARR ECON EUN DA
SUBJECT: DANISH PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS: RASMUSSEN'S TO LOSE 
 
REF: COPENHAGEN 970 
 
Classified By: Ambassador James P. Cain, reasons 1.4b,d 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: Two weeks ahead of Danish parliamentary 
elections November 13, Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen 
looks set to return to office as head of a center-right 
minority government -- although perhaps with the backing of a 
broader and less manageable coalition.  The opposition so far 
has been unable to move beyond a rough parity with the 
current government parties, suggesting that Denmark's high 
economic growth, historically low unemployment and record 
budget surpluses will be decisive in a campaign focused on 
domestic issues.  Whether Rasmussen stays or is replaced by a 
Social Democratic-led government, Danish foreign policy will 
essentially remain pro-EU, Atlanticist and committed to 
active engagement in the wider world. End summary. 
 
¶2. (C) Polling and the tenor of the electoral campaign so far 
suggest that PM Rasmussen chose well in calling early 
elections, striking while in good position and before heading 
into contentious public sector wage negotiations in the new 
year.  Buoyed by the strongest Danish economy in memory and 
faced with a lackluster political opposition, Rasmussen and 
his Liberal-Conservative coalition (supported by the 
populist, anti-immigration Danish People's Party) entered 
this campaign as clear favorites.  Support for the opposition 
remains stalled at less than half.  Barring some unexpected 
shift, the big question is whether the current government 
parties can achieve a majority on their own, or will need to 
rely on the support of the centrist New Alliance Party (which 
has nominally committed to support Rasmussen). 
 
¶3. (C) The possibility of New Alliance in the kingmaker role 
presents Rasmussen with a range of challenges, however. New 
Alliance was formed just five months ago as a breakaway party 
from the Social Liberal Party (now backing the main 
opposition).  New Alliance may prove a difficult partner on 
its own, but perhaps impossibly so in collaboration with the 
Danish People's Party, its ideological opposite on 
immigration and other issues.  The DPP's charismatic founder, 
Pia Kjaersgaard, is using an image of Mohammed on her party's 
campaign posters, reminding voters of the upheaval over 
cartoons in 2006 and the free-speech absolutism of the DPP. 
What's more, one can't be certain that New Alliance leader 
Naser Khader (reftel) won't support the Social Democrats in 
the end -- regardless of his public position -- thereby 
tipping the balance against the government.  For these 
reasons, Rasmussen will be working hard to shore up the 
Liberal, Conservative and DPP vote to ensure that he doesn't 
have to depend on Khader.  Unfortunately for the prime 
minister, support for the New Alliance appears to be growing, 
following a steep decline over the summer. 
 
¶4. (C) The Social Democrats, meanwhile, are looking to 
capitalize on voter concerns about public services and a 
desire for change after six years of a Liberal-led 
government.  Although Danes have among the highest tax rates 
in the world, they value their public benefits, and the 
government's (relatively) tight rein on spending has left it 
vulnerable to criticism.  So far, however, the Social 
Democrats haven't gotten much traction on this issue, as many 
voters accept the government's argument that it can spend the 
money more efficiently than the SDP.  The Social Democrats 
have an untested but capable and telegenic leader in Helle 
Thorning-Schmidt.  Her performance in upcoming 
presidential-style debates with Rasmussen will be critical to 
raising her stature and improving the opposition's chances. 
These prospects were diminished further this week when the 
Socialist People's Party announced its demand for ministerial 
positions in an SDP-led government, a move bound to alienate 
potential coalition partners and motivate center-right voters. 
 
¶5. (C) With the focus on the choices presented by 
unprecedented prosperity at home, foreign policy has so far 
been largely absent from this campaign.  This reflects not 
only a preoccupation with domestic issues but also a general 
consensus among the main parties on the broad outlines of 
Danish foreign policy.  The government's decision to withdraw 
from Iraq earlier this year removed the one divisive issue 
that could have played a major role in the election, as was 
probably the prime minister's intention at the time.  The 
Danish deployment in Afghanistan has strong support within 
the SDP and Social Liberal parties.  Over the last year, the 
Danish opposition has exploited the alleged mistreatment of 
Afghan detainees and purported CIA renditions in an attempt 
to embarrass the government.  However, these issues have not 
emerged so far in the campaign.  In keeping with recent 
Danish tradition, the major parties have tacitly agreed not 
 
COPENHAGEN 00000998  002 OF 002 
 
 
to make an issue of whether to hold a referendum on the EU 
Lisbon treaty.  Neither have relations with the U.S. been an 
issue.  While there are certainly anti-American elements 
within the Danish Left (they are founding tenets for the New 
Alliance), for the most part the Danish opposition 
demonstrates a responsible approach to foreign policy and 
values the partnership between the U.S. and Europe. 
 
¶6. (C) Comment: A change to a Social Democratic-led 
government would present significant challenges for the 
United States -- the current government has been among our 
closest allies -- but not insurmountable ones.  Pressed to 
bet, our money is on Rasmussen to win, but we can also take 
satisfaction in the conviction that Denmark will remain a 
valued partner even if we lose that wager. 
CAIN