VZCZCXRO2994
RR RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHCH #1318/01 3031307
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 301307Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY CHISINAU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5867
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHISINAU 001318 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/UMB 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2017 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR MD
SUBJECT: WILL SPEAKER LUPU STAY WITH THE COMMUNIST PARTY? 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Michael D. Kirby for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  Despite widespread rumors that he may split 
from the Communist Party (PCRM) in the wake of his  public 
disagreements with President Voronin, Speaker of the Moldovan 
Parliament Marian Lupu may stay with the PCRM in the hopes of 
succeeding Voronin and transforming the PCRM into a moderate, 
centrist force.  However, if he does not get a top position 
within the party at the PCRM Congress in March 2008, Lupu may 
leave the party to launch a political career of his own. 
Alternatively, he may opt for a leadership role in Filat's 
recently formed Liberal Democratic Party.  End summary. 
 
PCRM Rethinks Strategy after 2007 Local Elections 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶2. (C) The Communist Party's poor performance in the 2007 
municipal and mayoral elections raised questions about the 
party's staying power and prompted discussions about the need 
for a major overhaul of the PCRM's policies and strategies. 
Given the party's loss of electoral appeal, it appears that 
further erosion of its political clout in the 2009 
parliamentary elections is likely, unless it finds a new 
direction and some fresh blood. 
 
Voronin: Belligerence the Way Forward 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) PCRM leaders have offered conflicting solutions to the 
party's loss of electoral support.  One was articulated 
publicly in the press by President Voronin in July.  Voronin 
argued that the party must revert to its pre-2005 
belligerence and halt its cooperation with opposition 
parties.  The President stated that the party could best 
juxtapose its successes in running the country and 
undertaking market reforms to the ineptitude of opposition 
parties.  This message could find some resonance, as the 
majority coalitions created by opposition parties after the 
2007 local elections have proven fragile and have been marked 
by much squabbling. 
 
Lupu Offers Different Vision 
---------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) Parliament Speaker Marian Lupu, who is seen as a 
possible successor to President Voronin and frequently serves 
as an attractive democratic facade for the PCRM, has 
articulated a different vision.  The Speaker, who is second 
in command after the President, publicly contradicted Voronin 
this past summer, calling for continued cooperation with 
opposition parties and urging far-reaching reforms within the 
PCRM.  Lupu reckoned the PCRM's excessive belligerence could 
alienate the opposition and lead to a political stalemate in 
the next parliament. 
 
The Communist Party's Two Wings 
------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) Voronin's charisma and clout are crucial to keeping 
the PCRM's older, orthodox supporters, who value a 
paternalistic, omnipresent government.  Lupu has said 
publicly that he wants to reform the party into a centrist 
force to win voters whose priorities include EU integration, 
market reforms and wider economic opportunities.  He recently 
told the Ambassador that the elderly supporters of the 
Communist Party name are dying out and that the future lies 
in wooing the youth.  However, deep reform within the party 
could alienate the first group without luring the second. 
 
Lupu's Decision 
--------------- 
 
¶6. (C) Aides to Voronin's key strategist, Mark Tkaciuk, have 
told us that Lupu is a responsible and trustworthy leader who 
will stay with the party and would never "stab" it in the 
back by leaving.  Lupu owes his career to Voronin and has 
little, if any, independent stature within the PCRM.  He is 
also noted for being circumspect and vacillating.  It is not 
clear that he has the will necessary either for sustained 
infighting that would be needed to start a new political 
party or for prolonged negotiations needed to push through 
fundamental change within the PCRM.  He might, therefore, 
prefer the path of least resistance by seeking to succeed 
Voronin instead of confront him. 
 
¶7. (C) The key event which will decide the fate of the PCRM 
(and Lupu's position within it) will be the Party Congress 
scheduled for March 15, 2008.  The Congress will overhaul the 
party's programs and policies and promote new leaders.  If 
the Congress does not promote Lupu to a key position within 
the party or fails to give him enough say in reforming the 
 
CHISINAU 00001318  002 OF 002 
 
 
party, he may split from the PCRM.  While it is possible that 
he would seek to form his own party, he mentioned to the 
Ambassador that the recently established Liberal Democratic 
party headed by Vladimir Filat was an attractive possibility 
and offered a very interesting platform. 
KIRBY