VZCZCXRO5493
RR RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHTN #0253/01 2761437
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 031437Z OCT 07
FM AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2472
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0117
RUEHSA/AMEMBASSY PRETORIA 5812

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAPE TOWN 000253 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT PLEASE PASS TO DOC FOR J.DIEMOND 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/25/2017 
TAGS: ECON ETRD CN SF
SUBJECT: CHINESE TEXTILE QUOTA A BUST? 
 
REF: 06 PRETORIA 03868 
 
Classified By: Consul General Helen La Lime for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
¶1.  (U) Summary.  South Africa's two-year "emergency" quota 
on Chinese textile and clothing imports was implemented in 
January 2007 to fend off a flood of inexpensive, 
low-quality Chinese imports that had battered the local 
clothing and textile industry (reftel).  According to 
import data, industry players and media reports, the 
quotas, to date, have had only a minimal positive effect on 
the domestic industry, and, in some instances, have been 
detrimental to local clothing manufacturers.  While the 
trade union continues to support the quota for slowing the 
tide of imports, and stemming lay-offs, all parties agree 
that without implementation of a strategy to streamline 
local industry into a globally competitive sector, the 
majority of companies will not survive, regardless of 
protection.  End Summary. 
 
---------- 
Background 
---------- 
 
¶2.  (U) South Africa's two-year "emergency" quota on 
Chinese textile and clothing imports was implemented in 
January 2007 to fend off a flood of inexpensive, 
low-quality Chinese imports that had battered the local 
clothing and textile industry.  (See reftel).  South Africa 
restricted 31 categories of Chinese clothing and textiles, 
effective from January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2008.  The 
quota was implemented following requests by labor unions, 
which expected the move to restore some of the 
approximately 70,000 jobs lost in the sector.  Retailers 
and industry warned, however, that the quotas were 
implemented without any impact studies and the quotas would 
be inflationary, result in further job losses, and would 
not assist manufacturers in regaining local market share. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Trade and Investment Officer and Washington 
analysts recently held meetings with South African Clothing 
and Textile Workers Union's Labor Researcher Etienne Vlok, 
Center for Chinese Studies' Program Manager Lucy Corkin, 
and Prestige Clothing CEO Graham Choice to discuss the 
economic impact of the quotas since implementation. 
 
------------------------------ 
Import/Export Data After Quota 
------------------------------ 
 
¶4.  (U) Trade Law Centre for South Africa's (TRALAC) 
recently published report comparing South Africa import and 
Chinese export data on quota categories through the first 
two quarters of 2007 provides an overview of the economic 
effect of the quota.  Imports from China in quota 
categories for the first two quarters of 2007 that dropped 
by 36 percent, while total SA imports from the world 
(including China) fell by 16 percent during that same time 
period, suggesting nearly half of the decline in Chinese 
imports was shifted to imports from other countries.  The 
rand also weakened considerably during this time period, 
which would have contributed to the decline in imports. 
Further, import data for the fourth quarter of 2006 leading 
up to the quota showed a 110 percent increase over the 
prior year, almost entirely attributable to increases in 
Chinese imports.  This indicates that bulk purchases were 
made by retailers prior to imposition of the quota, which 
may have also led to lower import demand in the first half 
of 2007. 
 
SA Quota Import Lines - China vs. World 
          (millions of Rand) 
--------------------------------------- 
       Jan-Jun 06  Jan-Jun 07 
China    1,574         953 
Total    2,197       1,847 
 
¶5.  (U)  Several countries took China's place in supplying 
South Africa with textiles and clothing targeted by the 
quotas.  Vietnam was by far the biggest gainer, but other 
beneficiaries included Pakistan, India, Malaysia, 
Mauritius, and the UK.  The shifting market shares are 
shown below. 
 
             Percent of Imports 
------------------------------------ 
          Jan-Jun 2006  Jan-Jun 2007 
China        71.67        51.62 
Pakistan      3.18         5.68 
 
CAPE TOWN 00000253  002 OF 003 
 
 
India         3.17         4.88 
Mauritius     1.33         2.94 
Vietnam       0.21        29.21 
Malaysia      0.12         1.61 
UK            1.10         2.61 
 
¶6.  (U) The quotas were designed to boost SA's production 
in the quota line products.  Between the first and second 
quarter of 2007, South African exports increased from R123 
million to R141 million.  As TRALAC's report notes, 
however, "it is too early to tell if this is temporary or 
the start of the hoped-for recovery in the sectors." 
 
---------------------------------------- 
Industry View: Quota Makes Little Impact 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) According to industry players and media reports, 
the quotas, to date, have had only a minimal positive 
effect on the domestic industry, and, in some instances, 
have been detrimental to local clothing manufacturers. 
Graham Choice, CEO of Prestige Clothing, a high-end 
clothing cut and trim manufacturer, complained that the 
quotas were detrimental to his business as they included 
certain textiles, even though clothing manufacturers had 
requested that textiles be exempt.  Choice explained that 
he could no longer obtain inexpensive Chinese fabric for 
his cut and trim operations, forcing him to reduce his 
workforce by one-third to 468 employees in just the last 
six months.  In addition to raising costs, Choice commented 
that the quota led local retailers to search out clothing 
manufacturers in other countries that previously had not 
been on their radar screens. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Retailers agree with Choice's sentiments that 
local manufacturing has not been assisted by the quota. 
National Clothing Retail Federation of SA Executive 
Director Michael Lawrence told journalists that the quota 
had not achieved the SAG's intention of substituting local 
products for the Chinese imports as retailers have sourced 
goods in other markets.  Department of Trade and Industry's 
Americas Manager Cobs Pillay also told Trade and Investment 
Officer that Woolworths and Edgars, two of the largest 
retail outlets in South Africa, purchased products from 
Chinese companies well in advance of the quota to supply 
retailers through August 2007, and then the retailers 
intended to import from Vietnam. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) While retailers and manufacturers insist that the 
quota has not had a positive economic impact on local 
production, South African Clothing and Textile Workers 
Union's Labor Researcher Etienne Vlok defended the quota by 
citing the slow-down during the first half of 2007 in what 
had been a half decade of ever-increasing imports.  Orders 
to local factories were increasing, as well.  Vlok, while 
conceding that layoffs were still occurring, noted that the 
rate of lay-offs had slowed.  He stated that the first 
period of the quota was negated by importers stocking up 
and that the full effect of the quota will not be seen 
until more time has passed. 
 
---------------------- 
Sector Strategy Needed 
---------------------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Regardless of the quota's effect, all parties 
agree that without implementation of a strategy to 
streamline local industry into a globally competitive 
sector, the majority of SA companies will not survive. 
Center for Chinese Studies' Lucy Corkin told econoffs that 
in its current state "clothing is an unsustainable 
industry" and the quota was a process "hijacked by the 
union" to provide short-term help, but not long-term 
assistance to the industry.  Choice stated that the quota 
could only be effective if accompanied by a sector strategy 
to turn the older, middle-to-low-tiered manufacturers into 
world-class facilities specializing in high-end products. 
He estimated of the 1,015 current operating manufacturers, 
only 70 have converted to a globally competitive system. 
According to Choice, the SAG needs to subsidize exchange 
programs for developing best practices and provide skills 
training courses.  Instead, Choice commented that DTI 
waited too long after the implementation of the quota to 
release an industrial plan for the sector and complained 
the industrial strategy does not identify the companies 
that will receive funding or why. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Vlok also endorsed the need for a similar 
strategy to accompany the quota.  He said that a sector 
 
CAPE TOWN 00000253  003 OF 003 
 
 
plan with 15 different programs had been agreed upon in 
late 2006 to stimulate local demand, streamline production, 
and improve innovation and quality.  According to Vlok, 
implementation of the plan was delayed because the 
retailers withdrew their cooperation when the quota was 
announced.  Without a sector strategy firmly entrenched by 
the end of the quota, the industry agrees that any 
short-term improvements will fade away with the likely new 
surge of Chinese products in 2009. 
 
¶12.  (C) Both Choice and Vlok also agreed that customs 
enforcement of import rules was lacking.  Vlok noted there 
was little to stop transshipment of Chinese clothing and 
textiles in South Africa, especially from within the 
Southern African Customs Union.  Vlok said containers not 
from China received little inspection.  Choice argued that 
there were no effective anti-dumping measures against 
clothing and textile imports in part because customs 
officials were not effective on the ground.  For instance, 
they could not tell the difference between a various types 
of cotton blends in shirt fabric.  Both Vlok and Choice 
agreed that customs officials needed to be better trained. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶13.  (SBU) The SAG recently released its National 
Industrial Policy Framework (NIPF) and Action Plan, a 
strategy to support and nurture specified industries, along 
with its Customized Sector Program (CSP) for Clothing and 
Textiles.  The NIPF and CSP highlight the clothing and 
textile sector as a key labor-intensive industry that needs 
government support "to preserve capabilities and retain 
employment."  The Action Plan delineates benchmarks for 
improving the sector, including monitoring the 
implementation of the quotas on Chinese imports and 
reducing import duties on inputs to the clothing sector. 
The CSP is intended to increase cooperation and modernize 
the textile and apparel industries and put them on a path 
to higher competitiveness.  The NIPF Action Plan and CSP 
seem to identify the specific needs discussed by industry 
and the union, but it remains to be seen whether 
development and implementation of the program can occur in 
time to arrest the sector's decline. 
La Lime