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DE RUEHSW #1009/01 2831425
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O 101425Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY BERN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4592
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BERN 001009 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/AGS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL SZ
SUBJECT: SWISS ELECTIONS:  LEFT-WING RADICALS DISRUPT SVP 
RALLY - SVP APPEARS TO BENEFIT 
 
REF: BERN 896 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  On October 6, left-wing radicals disrupted 
a long-planned campaign rally in downtown Bern by the Swiss 
People's Party (SVP).  At days end, 42 left-wing 
demonstrators reportedly had been arrested, with 3 
demonstrators and 18 police injured.  This incident has 
further disconcerted the Swiss, who increasingly are 
concerned about the unusually confrontational tone of the 
ongoing parliamentary election campaigns and a clear erosion 
in the Swiss ethos of consensus based political 
decision-making (reftel).  While the "winners and losers" of 
October 6 are still being tallied, it appears clear that the 
incident will further galvanize SVP supporters and perhaps 
even attract some sympathy from Swiss voters who previously 
have hesitated to vote SVP.  A recent poll indicates that the 
SVP has gained 2% since June, and now is hovering at 26%, 
retaining its position as the most popular Swiss party. 
Meanwhile, the Swiss Social Democratic Party (SP) has drifted 
in the other direction, polling 22.3%, but remaining the 
second strongest party, clearly ahead of the Free Democrats 
(FDP) at 15.3%, the Christian Democrats (CVP) at 14.95%, and 
the Greens at 10.3%.  Though much can happen between now and 
the October 21 parliamentary elections, it thus far appears 
that the SVP's aggressive law-and-order and anti-immigration 
campaign themes have buoyed its support among part of the 
Swiss electorate.  For its part, the SP appears to be 
struggling somewhat to define its message, and finding less 
resonance with traditional social democratic themes at a time 
when the Swiss economy is thriving and unemployment is low. 
End Summary. 
 
------------------- 
SVP Rally Disrupted 
------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) On October 6, left-wing radicals disrupted a 
long-planned campaign rally in downtown Bern by the Swiss 
People's Party (SVP).  As Swiss officials had feared could 
happen, an estimated 500 of approximately 3,000 left-wing 
demonstrators separated into small groups in Bern's 
labyrinthine city center and blocked the route of 10,000 SVP 
supporters who planned to march through the city to the 
central square ("Bundesplatz") in front of the Parliament to 
hold a political rally.  The SVP march and rally had received 
approval from city authorities.  The left-wing 
counter-demonstration, organized by an umbrella group calling 
itself the "Black Sheep Committee", was not authorized. 
 
¶3. (U) In the early afternoon, as the SVP supporters began 
their march toward the city center, their procession was 
halted on one of the main bridges over the Aare river to the 
downtown area, while police attempted to clear left-wing 
demonstrators from the route.  Some of the demonstrators 
reportedly were sitting in the street, and eventually were 
driven away by Swiss police using tear gas and rubber 
bullets.  Another group of 50-100 left-wing radicals 
reportedly managed to reach the Bundesplatz, where they 
promptly damaged or destroyed the equipment and decorations 
that had been put in place for the SVP rally.  The Swiss 
police who were supposed to be protecting the Bundesplatz 
reportedly had been sent elsewhere to try to contain 
left-wing radical activities. 
 
¶4. (U) Because the police ultimately were not able to secure 
the entire route to the Bundesplatz, the SVP procession had 
no choice but to return to the other side of the river, where 
they held an impromptu rally.  SVP Federal Councilor 
Christoph Blocher (Federal Justice and Police Minister), who 
had been marching with the procession, addressed his 
supporters saying the SVP rally had been transformed into a 
"demonstration for peace and freedom of expression."  He also 
criticized Bern's SP-Green dominated city government for not 
providing enough security to permit that rally to proceed as 
had been planned.  The SVP's other Federal Councilor, Samuel 
Schmid (Federal Defense Minister), had planned to address the 
crowd at the Bundesplatz, and was unable to join the 
impromptu rally on the other side of the river.  At days end, 
42 left-wing demonstrators reportedly had been arrested, with 
3 demonstrators and 18 police injured. 
 
----------------- 
Political Fallout 
----------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Embassy staff who witnessed some of the events 
surrounding the SVP march and left-wing 
counter-demonstrations report the extent of the violence 
appeared lower than has been depicted in the press. 
 
BERN 00001009  002 OF 003 
 
 
Nevertheless, the images of October 6 have further 
disconcerted the Swiss, who increasingly are concerned about 
the unusually confrontational tone of the ongoing 
parliamentary election campaigns and a clear erosion in the 
Swiss ethos of consensus based political decision-making 
(reftel). 
 
¶6. (SBU) The ultra-conservative SVP in particular has been at 
the center of this debate, not least because of a notorious 
campaign poster that depicts three white sheep kicking a 
black sheep out of Switzerland (symbolically depicted by a 
Swiss flag).  While the SVP strenuously claims that the 
poster is a reference to the parable of the "black sheep," 
and intended to refer only to the deportation of foreigners 
who commit crimes, the SVP's political opponents have 
denounced the poster as racist and provocative, and other 
commentators (such as UN Special Rapporteur on Racisim Doudou 
Diene) have expressed similar concerns.  Indeed, the "Black 
Sheep Committee" that organized that counter-demonstration is 
a direct reference to the subject of the poster.  The 
organizers of the left-wing counter-demonstration have, 
themselves, come in for criticism by those arguing that it 
was inevitable that the unauthorized demonstration would lead 
to violence.  Bern City Councilman Daniele Jenni reportedly 
may be forced out of the Green party, due to his leading role 
in organizing the counter-demonstration. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Beyond a growing Swiss public discussion regarding 
the boundaries of civility in political debate, the events of 
October 6 have prompted immediate concern regarding the 
adequacy of the Swiss police response.  Although the city of 
Bern received police reinforcements from neighboring 
communities and cantons, the number of police engaged has 
been criticized as inadequate, not least by Federal Councilor 
Schmid, whose speech at the Bundesplatz had to be canceled as 
a result of the counter-demonstrators.  In this context, some 
Swiss observers have questioned whether Switzerland is 
capable of co-hosting the European soccer championship ("Euro 
2008") next summer, given the extraordinary security 
challenges posed by such an event.  Swiss police officials 
concede that their response on October 6 could have been 
better, but underline that they succeeded in achieving their 
main goal, which was to prevent a clash between the left-wing 
radicals and SVP supporters.  (Note:  In September, the Swiss 
police in Lausanne received similar criticism for their 
reported inability to keep some violent counter-demonstrators 
under control during a campaign appearance by Blocher.  End 
Note) 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) While the "winners and losers" of October 6 are 
still being tallied, it appears clear that the incident will 
further galvanize SVP supporters and perhaps even attract 
some sympathy from Swiss voters who previously have hesitated 
to vote SVP.  The disruption of the rally certainly 
reinforces the image that the SVP has cultivated of itself as 
the guardian of a society allegedly under assault.  Political 
observers and opponents argue that this image of "victimhood" 
is a mainstay of SVP campaign strategies, past and present. 
In fact, a recent poll indicates that the SVP has gained 2% 
since June, and now is hovering at 26%, retaining its 
position as the most popular Swiss party.  Meanwhile, the 
Swiss Social Democratic Party (SP) has drifted in the other 
direction, polling 22.3%, but remaining the second strongest 
party, clearly ahead of the Free Democrats (FDP) at 15.3%, 
the Christian Democrats (CVP) at 14.95%, and the Greens at 
10.3%. 
 
¶9. (U) While such polling data is indicative of the current 
relative strengths of the political parties, the actual 
distribution of the 246 parliamentary seats following the 
October 21 elections will depend not only on true voting 
behavior, but also on the proportional and federal mechanisms 
that determine the members of the National Council and the 
State Council that comprise the bicameral Swiss Parliament. 
For example, the FDP and CVP in the past have tended to win a 
disproportionate number of seats within the State Council, 
whose membership is based primarily on "winner-take-all" 
contests in the respective cantons, unlike the National 
Council, in which the seats for each canton are distributed 
among the parties according to the percentage of the vote 
received.  The current distribution of seats in the 
Parliament is as follows:  SVP/63, SP/61, FDP/54, CVP/43, 
Greens/14, and all Others/11. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Though much can happen between now and the October 
 
BERN 00001009  003 OF 003 
 
 
21 parliamentary elections, it thus far appears that the SVP 
has managed to set the electoral campaign agenda with its 
aggressive law-and-order and anti-immigration campaign 
themes, which have buoyed its support among part of the Swiss 
electorate.  For its part, the SP appears to be struggling 
somewhat to define its message, and finding less resonance 
with traditional social democratic themes at a time when the 
Swiss economy is thriving and unemployment is low.  Thus, it 
appears that the SP is seeing some of its support shifting to 
the ascendant Green Party, now looking to take 10% of the 
vote. 
CONEWAY