VZCZCXRO0698
PP RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHLZ
DE RUEHRL #1896/01 2891423
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 161423Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY BERLIN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9490
INFO RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0898
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 8547
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 9094
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 1517
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RHMFIUU/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BERLIN 001896 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ENRG KGHG SENV GM
SUBJECT: GERMAN CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY -- MERKEL COMMITTED 
TO BINDING EMISSIONS TARGETS 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  Chancellor Merkel is serious about 
pursuing aggressive international measures to meet the 
challenges of global warming.  She has built her 
Chancellorship almost exclusively on this issue.  Her support 
for mandatory, targeted global limits on greenhouse gas (GHG) 
emissions and an international cap-and-trade regime reflects 
a deep-seated belief that only drastic, concerted efforts on 
the part of the international community can slow -- and 
ultimately reverse -- the human contribution to global 
warming.  In pursuing activist climate change policies, the 
Chancellor enjoys the overwhelming support of the German 
population and of political leaders spanning the spectrum of 
the German body politic.  While Merkel has been careful to 
consider alternative solutions, such as new technologies for 
clean coal and renewables, fundamental differences in our 
approaches to the issue of climate change could lead to more 
visible disagreements, especially if Germany and other 
like-minded countries push hard for mandatory, global GHG 
targets at the UN Bali Conference in December.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (U) Since declaring the issue of combating global warming 
one of the centerpieces of Germany's EU and G-8 presidencies, 
Chancellor Angela Merkel has continued to maintain a sharp 
focus on the issue in the run-up to the Bali Conference.  She 
has not missed an opportunity to highlight the centrality and 
the urgency of this issue, both internationally -- as in the 
context of her UNGA speech and her recent visits to 
Greenland, China and Japan -- and domestically, in a series 
of keynote speeches on the issue.  Merkel most recently 
raised the need for a global approach to climate protection 
at a climate conference on October 9, 2007 in Potsdam.  As in 
her UNGA remarks, the Chancellor warned of the dramatic 
consequences of global warming and pointed out the need for 
industrialized nations to act as role models, especially in 
initiating a post-2012 framework agreement that contains 
clear GHG emission-reduction targets.  She also set out the 
various international responsibilities in detail, tying in 
with her earlier statements at the G-8 summit in 
Heiligendamm.  In particular, Merkel recalled that she had 
made it a top priority at the June 6-8 Heiligendamm Summit to 
persuade G-8 leaders to commit to a 50% reduction in 
greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and to advance a framework 
for a post-Kyoto climate protection agreement under the aegis 
of the UN by 2009. 
 
¶3.  (U) At the Potsdam meeting, Merkel strongly advocated an 
international emissions trading scheme as part of the 
post-Kyoto framework agreement, arguing that this would lead 
industries to invest in climate-friendly technologies.  She 
proposed issuing emissions permits to all industry sectors, 
which ideally would be tradable at the international level or 
-- at a minimum -- at regional level, as an effective means 
to combat global warming.  Each country would receive 
emission permits allowing it to emit a specific amount of 
CO2; countries which exceed their allowance would have to buy 
permits from countries that produce less than their permits 
allow. 
¶4.  (U) The Chancellor also reiterated her idea of basing a 
nation's carbon dioxide emissions allowance on population 
size, a proposal she had unveiled during her recent visits to 
China and Japan, calling on both governments to do more to 
halt climate change.  Terming climate change one of the most 
pressing issues for the future, the Chancellor said "the only 
realistic long-term goal is to balance per capita emissions 
around the world."  With this proposal, Merkel hopes to 
reassure emerging economies that any future global framework 
will be applied equitably. 
 
¶5.  (U) Merkel's focus on emerging economies dates back to 
the Heiligendamm summit, where the Chancellor had called for 
greater involvement of important emerging economies in global 
policy issues, with a particular emphasis on climate change. 
However, under her carbon-per-capita proposal, many 
developing countries would be allowed to increase their 
emissions per capita while industrialized nations cut theirs, 
until both sides reached the same level.  To cut emissions in 
half by 2050, the world-wide average CO2 emission per capita 
needs to be reduced to two tons per year.  Not only the U.S., 
but most industrialized countries would have to undertake 
dramatic reductions in order to meet Merkel's goal, she said. 
 Merkel concluded her remarks by calling global per capita 
emissions limits the only realistic method to begin to 
 
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reverse the effects of global warming and by underscoring the 
importance of the upcoming Bali conference in establishing a 
framework for a post-Kyoto climate protection agreement. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Comment:  While Merkel has been willing to consider 
alternative complementary approaches to reducing GHG 
emissions and to offer at least lukewarm support to our Major 
Economies initiative, her support for a global mandatory cap 
on emissions has been unwavering.  While the Chancellor is 
herself not immune from political considerations -- as 
illustrated by her efforts to assuage the German automobile 
industry in the context of EU-wide auto-emissions goals -- 
Merkel is a true-believer on the issue of mandatory global 
caps on emissions, and will likely not be deterred from 
pursuing this in international fora.  Interestingly, even 
German industry has been largely silent on the difficulties 
her plan would entail.  While the Chancellor and her advisers 
are well aware of our preference for measuring GHG intensity 
by linking emissions to units of economic output, as opposed 
to population, they are convinced that such a regime would be 
unpalatable to emerging nations, and would not succeed in 
reversing global warming.  Likewise, although Merkel is 
interested in exploring the possibilities offered by new 
technologies, she is convinced that, in the short term, there 
is no viable alternative to binding international GHG 
emissions targets.  We believe that Merkel and her advisers 
will continue to work with us and to avoid confrontation to 
the extent possible in the run-up to Bali, but that our 
differences in approach may well become more acute if Bali 
generates additional momentum for mandatory, global GHG 
emissions targets. 
 
KOENIG