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O 011108Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY BANGKOK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9914
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 4903
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 7719
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RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHFJSCC/COMMARFORPAC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 005182 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR PHU 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/30/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM TH
SUBJECT: CABINET SHUFFLE EXPECTED 
 
REF: A. BANGKOK 5077 (CABINET RESIGNATION) 
     ¶B. BANGKOK 2424 (PAD LEADER OPPOSES DECEMBER 
        ELECTION) 
     ¶C. BANGKOK 2327 (PRASONG ON SURAYUD/SONTHI RIFT) 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce, reason 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C)  SUMMARY: Further resignations will force Prime 
Minister Surayud to make changes in his cabinet. The new 
line-up should be announced within a few days.  Retiring Army 
commander GEN Sonthi Boonyaratglin is widely expected to be 
named Deputy Prime Minister in charge of security affairs, 
but there appears to be significant opposition to him taking 
the Interior Ministry position just vacated.  The exodus of 
cabinet members will make it difficult for Surayud to 
reassign duties among the existing ministers, which was his 
announced preference. Embassy contacts are perplexed by this 
sudden political turmoil.  Some point to GEN Sonthi or the 
military as provoking resignations to free up the important 
Interior Minister slot for Sonthi.  Others blame a cabal of 
hard-line anti-Thaksin activists, eager to delay the 
elections by sowing chaos in the government, and to discredit 
a prime minister they see as too soft on Thaksin.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (C) PM Surayud Chulanont returned from the UNGA to face a 
cabinet crisis, as four more cabinet members were hit with 
accusations that they held shareholdings in public companies 
above the prescribed limit (ref A). Surayud called a cabinet 
meeting for Monday to discuss a ministerial reshuffle.  By 
late afternoon, two of the accused Cabinet members -- Natural 
Resources and Environment Minister Kasem and Deputy Foreign 
Minister Saowanit -- had resigned. This follows the 
resignations last week of the ICT Minister Sittichai, 
Commerce Deputy Minister Oranuj and Interior Minister Aree, 
following statements by the National Counter Corruption 
Commission (NCC) about their excessive shareholdings. (In the 
case of the Interior Minister, he is also in trouble for 
holding shares in a company that did business with the 
government.  This restriction is in the act establishing the 
NCCC, not just in the abrogated Constitution; Aree may face 
criminal procedings in this case).  Press sources say three 
more cabinet members may also have excessive share-holdings 
or related ethics issues:  Education Minister Wichit, Public 
Health Minister Mongkol and Deputy Finance Minister Phasee. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) A wide variety of sources have confirmed the press 
reports that GEN Sonthi Boonyaratglin will be made  Deputy 
Prime Minister, in charge of security issues.  This has been 
under discussion for months, and is not likely to cause much 
reaction, if the reports are true. Although he has stepped 
down as Army Chief, GEN Sonthi remains head of the Council 
for National Security, which has a mandate to oversee 
security issues.  The DPM appointment would not appear to 
give him any additional powers.  The more difficult question 
is who will take the Interior Minister portfolio.  Following 
speculation that GEN Sonthi might take this position as well, 
PM Surayud suggested that he himself might take the job, or 
that a deputy minister might move up into the position. 
Surayud also responded to a wave of rumors that swept through 
the capital over the weekend, and denied that he would 
resign.  He has told the press that he would prefer to 
rearrange the responsibilities of the current ministers 
rather than try to bring in new members to the government at 
this late date. However, at the rate he's losing cabinet 
members, this may be difficult. 
 
¶4. (C) Most of our contacts admit to being perplexed by this 
sudden crisis. Several of the accused ministers have 
complained that they declared all their assets when they took 
the job, and no one told them they were supposed to put their 
excess shares in a blind trust, as laid out in the 
(abrograted) 1997 Constitution.  Some still speculate that 
the goal of breaking the story now is to pave the way for GEN 
Sonthi to take over the Interior Ministry.  They consider 
that elements of the military may be behind the sudden move 
by the NCCC.  Others point to a cabal including anti-Thaksin 
rabblerouser Sondhi Limthongkul and coup conspirator Prasong 
Soonsiri, both of whom have been virulent critics of the 
current government (ref B and C). The goal would be to 
discredit Surayud, and force a delay in the elections by 
sowing enough chaos in the government that it would be unable 
 
BANGKOK 00005182  002 OF 002 
 
 
to meet the tight deadline presented by a December 23 
election date.  We note that Sondhi Limthongkul told us 
earlier this year that he was strongly opposed to an election 
this year, and the growth of the pro-Thaksin People's Power 
Party has probably only increased his concerns (ref B). 
Prasong has also indicated support for delaying the 
elections. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶5. (C)  Announcements of the cabinet shuffle are expected 
within the next day or two; it will be difficult to assess 
the full extent of the damage until we see the new line-up. 
Whatever the exact genesis of the crisis, it appears that the 
faultlines we have seen throughout the past year remain, with 
a hard-core anti-Thaksin element trying to push the more 
moderate government to take a tougher position.  PM Surayud 
remains committed to holding elections this year, and so far 
he has stuck to his position.  We will continue to emphasize 
the importance of Thailand keeping to the timetable for the 
return to elected government. 
BOYCE