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P 010906Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ASHGABAT 001056 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SCA/CEN, EEB 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ECON SOCI TX
SUBJECT: TURKMENISTAN: RISING MARKET BASKET COSTS BEGINNING TO BE 
FELT 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  As President Berdimuhamedov's latest foreign 
policy moves continue to receive heavy media play, citizens are 
beginning to complain about rising food prices.  A recent market 
basket price comparison shows prices have increased an average of 
20% since last year.  While the reasons for the price rise vary, the 
increases are beginning to hit just about everybody.  Turkmenistan 
is nowhere close to unrest.  With Turkmenistan's foreign exchange 
reserves expected to hit $12 billion by the end of the year, 
Berdimuhamedov has plenty of options available. But for a population 
used to turning a blind eye to the former president's political 
excesses as long as they had enough to eat, these latest 
developments will take some adjustment.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) A recent routine price check by the Econ assistant 
revealed an average market basket price increase of 20% over prices 
for the same items a year ago.  As demonstrated in the chart at para 
3, there were substantial increases overall.  The food staples that 
increased the most included vegetable oil (a 100% increase), chicken 
(a 49% increase), rice (a 42% increase) and butter (an 18% 
increase).  We have been told that prices have risen similarly in 
cities outside Ashgabat.  Not reflected in the market basket price 
comparison is the approximately 15% increase in the price of locally 
grown seasonal fruits and vegetables this year, including tomatoes 
and melons. 
 
¶3.  (U) Price comparison: 
 
Food Item              Price (8/06)  Price (9/07)       % 
 
                                                     Change 
 
Bread (1 home-made)     5,000 Manat    5,000 Manat     0 
Flour (1 kg)           12,000 Manat   12,000 Manat     0 
Rice (1 kg)            12,000 Manat   17,000 Manat    41.67 
Tea (1 kg)             80,000 Manat   80,000 Manat     0 
Butter (1 kg)          85,000 Manat  100,000 Manat    17.65 
Vegetable Oil (1 lit)  25,000 Manat   50,000 Manat   100 
Sugar (1 kg)           16,000 Manat   16,000 Manat     0 
Beef (1 kg)            45,000 Manat   50,000 Manat    11.11 
Lamb (1 kg)            45,000 Manat   50,000 Manat    11.11 
Chicken (whole)        47,000 Manat   70,000 Manat    48.94 
Milk (1 lit)            7,000 Manat    7,000 Manat     0 
Eggs (ten)             18,000 Manat   20,000 Manat    11.11 
 
OIL AND BUTTER PRICES RISE BECAUSE OF LESS COMPETITION 
 
¶4.  (U) According to retailers at the Ashgabat food markets, the 
increase for vegetable oil and butter is caused by the absence of 
their cheap Iranian substitutes, upon which the majority of 
Turkmenistan's citizens relied.  Instead, less-tasty Russian 
substitutes are flooding the market. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The Director of the National Veterinarian Laboratory, 
which was responsible for inspecting food markets until 2006, places 
most of the blame on lengthy custom clearance procedures mandated by 
Turkmenistan's Ministry of Health.  These bureaucratically drawn-out 
procedures and high customs fines have made it tough for the small 
private companies who previously provided Iranian products to 
Turkmenistan's markets to survive.  By comparison, the larger 
companies importing Russian foodstuffs, many of which have 
connections with the Ministry of Trade, are not only more able to 
pay customs fines, but also are less likely to face problems due to 
their connections.  Without competition from small businesses and 
Iranian imports, there is little to keep the larger companies from 
dictating the prices for vegetable oil and butter -- or from passing 
on to consumers the increased prices they are themselves paying for 
these goods in Russia. 
 
AVIAN INFLUENZA PREVENTION MEASURES DISTORT POULTRY PRICES 
 
¶6.  (SBU) By comparison, chicken and egg prices continue to increase 
due to a government ban on imports of poultry products imposed two 
years ago in response to concerns over avian influenza.  A local 
 
ASHGABAT 00001056  002 OF 002 
 
 
veterinarian has noted that the ban prevents local poultry farms 
from importing eggs or chickens to renew their flocks.  Meanwhile, 
existing flocks have become old (the normal productive age of a bird 
is two years) and non-productive.  This has created a shortage of 
eggs -- and a significant price increase for scanty local supplies. 
The scarcity of eggs has become especially notable during the month 
of Ramadan, when Turkmenistan households are most likely to buy eggs 
for special holiday Iftar dishes. 
 
WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES LEAD TO SHORTAGE OF LOCAL RICE 
 
¶7.  (U) Decreased local rice production also accounts for the 40% 
increase in prices.  In the past, private farmers grew rice on their 
small family plots in their backyards.  Two years ago, the 
government, concerned by the growing salinization of lands used for 
rice production and wanting to make more irrigation water available 
for wheat and cotton, mandated that rice should no longer be grown 
in "cultural zones" (i.e., lands that used to belong to collective 
farms in Soviet times), but rather, should be grown only on newly 
opened lands along irrigation canals.  However, because using the 
newly opened lands required substantial investment, fewer farmers 
are now growing rice -- leading to a smaller supply and higher 
prices. 
 
OPENING MARKETS KEEP SEASONAL PRODUCE COSTS HIGH 
 
¶8.  (U) Unlike previous years, the usual sharp summertime dip in the 
cost of Turkmenistan's locally produced seasonal vegetables and 
fruits did not occur this summer, and locals have noted a sharp 
decline as well in the quality of the produce available in the 
markets.  Vendors have attributed this phenomenon to the increased 
export of Turkmenistan's regionally famous produce -- especially 
tomatoes and melons -- to Kazakhstan and Russia, made possible by 
President Berdimuhamedov's efforts to expand international trade 
ties. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) COMMENT:  With flour and salt subsidized by the state and 
the possibility of supplementing diets with home-canned vegetables 
purchased cheaply in the summer months, even Turkmenistan's 
lower-income urban citizens have become accustomed to having 
relatively healthful and varied diets.  However, the most recent 
price hikes and shortages are beginning to hit everybody, and 
citizens are beginning to talk about the higher prices. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Post does not believe that the situation in Turkmenistan 
is even close to the point where the higher prices will cause 
starvation and unrest.  With Turkmenistan's foreign exchange 
reserves expected to hit $12 billion by the end of the year, 
Berdimuhamedov has plenty of options available.  Nonetheless, 
especially in Turkmenistan, where the population is used to turning 
inward, all politics are local, and most would rather complain about 
the rising prices than cheer the president's latest much-publicized 
foreign policy success.  And for a population used to turning a 
blind eye to the former president's political excesses as long as 
they had enough to eat, these latest developments will take some 
adjustment.  END SUMMARY.