VZCZCXRO7996
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHAK #2631 2971306
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 241306Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4137
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 002631 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
EUR FOR MATT BRYZA, MIKE CARPENTER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2017 
TAGS: PREL PBTS AJ AM GG TU ZJ
SUBJECT: TURKEY FINDS AZERBAIJAN PESSIMISTIC ON N-K; 
GEORGIA UNWILLING ON ABKHAZIA 
 
REF: ANKARA 2596 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner, reasons 1.4 b, d 
 
AZERBAIJAN PESSIMISTIC ON N-K 
------------------------------ 
 
¶1.  (C) MFA Deputy U/S for Caucasus and Central Asia Unal 
Cevikoz held bilateral consultations last week with 
Azerbaijan Deputy FonMins Azimov and Khalafov.  MFA Caucasus 
Acting Head of Section Yavuz Kul told us that Cevikoz found 
the GOAJ deeply pessimistic on the state of Nagorno-Karabakh 
(N-K) negotiations with Armenia.  Azimov reported that 
Armenian President Kocharian had told Azerbaijan President 
Aliyev that it will have to fall to the next Armenian 
president to make concessions on N-K.  But Azimov believes 
that Kocharian's likely successor, PM Sargsyan, an N-K native 
and war veteran, is likely a hard-liner.  The GOAJ fears that 
Sargsyan will want to start negotiations from scratch, and 
worries about the impact that Kosovo independence might have 
on the Armenian position.  While noting familiar complaints 
about Armenian demands, the GOT has also noticed a hardening 
in the GOAJ's negotiating position.  Azimov told Cevikoz that 
the GOAJ wants the future of N-K determined by a popular 
vote, supported by both communities, to take place after the 
return of internally displaced persons -- a recipe for more 
deadlock. 
 
¶2.  (C) According to Kul, the Azerbaijani public is beginning 
to demand a military solution.  This won't be easy for the 
GOAJ to defuse.  The GOT believes that Baku might begin 
initiating limited, "controlled crisis" to again attract 
international attention to the N-K conflict.  Kul said that 
the GOT has urged restraint. 
 
¶3.  (C) Kul also reported that the GOAJ is concerned by 
Russia-Georgia tensions, stemming from Georgia's NATO 
aspirations.  Baku, he said, wants Georgia to be more 
sensitive to Russia to avoid tensions between the two 
countries from posing a major threat to the region.  Kul 
observed that the GOAJ is also concerned about altering 
balances in the region.  It does not want to be left out. 
While there is no change to Turkey's official support for 
Georgia's NATO aspirations, Kul conceded a Turkish preference 
for Georgia and Azerbaijan to accede together.  Noting 
Russia's virulent opposition to Georgia joining NATO, Kul 
implied that the GOG might be wrong to believe that NATO 
membership best addresses Georgia's security concerns. 
 
GEORGIA NOT READY TO TAKE STEPS ON ABKHAZIA 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (C) Kul confirmed that MFA had requested -- through 
Turkey-based Abkhaz community groups -- that Abkhaz 
"President" Bagapsh cancel his visit to Turkey, which had 
been scheduled to begin October 17 (reftel).  While no 
"official" contact was planned, the GOT believed it would be 
an important opportunity to "explore attitudes" with the 
Abkhaz.  Tbilisi, he said, was initially tolerant of 
Bagapsh's visit, but, one week before his scheduled arrival, 
got cold feet and implored the GOT to postpone.  Kul 
emphasized that Turkey has never asked to play the role of 
facilitator with Abkhazia; Georgia had suggested this role to 
Turkey.  But Georgia, he said, is not ready right now to take 
any steps to solve the Abkhaz problem -- it is entirely 
focused on attaining its NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP). 
 
Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ 
 
WILSON