VZCZCXYZ0007
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #2241/01 2740849
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 010849Z OCT 07
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6997
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 7308
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 8577

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 002241 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - NIDA EMMONS 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: TAIWAN'S UN REFERENDUM, TAIWAN'S 
SOVEREIGNTY STATUS 
 
¶1. Summary:  Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused news 
coverage September 29-October 1 on the DPP's controversial "normal 
country resolution," which was subsequently passed during the 
party's national congress Sunday, rejecting an amendment proposed by 
outgoing Chairman Yu Shyi-kun; on the 2008 presidential election; 
and on a university students who went missing in early July and were 
found again last Friday. 
 
¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, an op-ed in the 
centrist, KMT-leaning "China Times" said that, despite the fact that 
the recent souring of relations between Taiwan and the United States 
over the Chen Shui-bian administration's push for a UN referendum is 
not good in and of itself, it helps reduce the possibility of China 
using force against Taiwan.  Heritage Foundation Senior Research 
Fellow John Tkacik opined in the pro-independence, English-language 
"Taipei Times" that "now is the time for Taiwan to reeducate the 
international community that the idea that Taiwan is an 'integral 
part of the People's Republic of China' is, as the State Department 
told the UN, 'not universally held by UN member states, including 
the United States.'"  End summary. 
 
¶3.  Taiwan's UN Referendum 
 
"Taiwan and the United States Are on Bad Terms, but There Are 
'Auspicious Signs' within the Gloomy Prospects" 
 
Professor Lin Chong-pin from Tamkang University's Graduate Institute 
of International Affairs and Strategic Studies, opined in the 
centrist, KMT-leaning "China Times" [circulation: 400,000] (10/1): 
 
"... The United States, as [U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of 
State] Thomas Christensen said, attaches great importance to 
Taiwan's strategic position.  But Taipei's failure to coordinate 
with Washington before it started this eye-catching campaign to push 
for its UN bid has disrupted the United States' plan and thus 
annoyed Washington.  The long-term significance of this matter is as 
follows: 
 
"First, Taiwan will become more isolated in terms of international 
politics.  Even though Taiwan's interaction with the world will not 
be affected, and its military relationship with the United States 
remains stable for the short term, Taiwan's elbow room in the 
international community will only be further reduced, given 
deteriorating Taiwan-U.S. relations.  Taiwan's allies in Latin 
America were mostly anti-Communist countries during the Cold War 
era, and they have always followed the lead of the United States. 
Once Washington turns the cold shoulder to Taiwan's political 
leaders, these countries will unavoidably veer with the 
circumstances, not to mention the fact that Beijing is trying very 
hard to win them over to its side. 
 
"Second, Beijing is the biggest winner.  Taiwan used to be one of 
the staunchest allies of the United States in East Asia, but its 
political ties with the United States have started to cool down. ... 
The fact that Taiwan and the United States are on bad terms has 
resulted in one additional weakening strategic pillar in East Asia 
for the United States.  Moreover, the chances are getting smaller 
for Beijing to use force against Taiwan.  As the consequences of 
Beijing's move to 'restrain Taiwan via the United States' remain to 
be seen, there is no need for Beijing to attack Taiwan now. ...  If 
peace across the Taiwan Strait is considered a good prospect, then 
one can say that there are at least 'some auspicious signs' when it 
comes to the gloomy fact that Taiwan and the United States are on 
bad terms politically." 
 
¶4. Taiwan's Status 
 
"Taiwan's Status Remains Unsettled" 
 
John Tkacik, senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, 
opined in the pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" 
[circulation: 30,000] (10/1): 
 
"... While it might not seem like it, this year marks a significant 
move forward for Taiwan's international status.  For the first time 
in a quarter-century, the US Department of State was obliged to 
reiterate its 'long standing' position that the US has 'not formally 
recognized Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan and [has] not made any 
determination as to Taiwan's political status.'  Formal recognition 
or not, the US Code treats Taiwan as it does all other 'foreign 
countries, nations, states, governments, or similar entities.'  For 
US' legal purposes, at least, Taiwan is indeed a state.  Moreover, 
given that Taiwan possesses 'a permanent population; a defined 
territory; government; and capacity to enter into relations with the 
other states,' it meets the description of a 'state' under the 1933 
Montevideo Convention (which the US ratified on June 29, 1934). 
 
"This precise point -- that Taiwan is, de facto, a state in the 
 
international community, despite the fact that the US does not 
recognize de jure that Taiwan is independent -- was at the heart of 
the State Department's alarmed demarche to the UN barely two months 
ago.  It now appears that the US government is finally returning to 
its 'long-standing' position that Taiwan's sovereignty is 
'unsettled.' ...  Once Americans get into the habit of thinking of 
Taiwan's 'sovereignty' as 'undetermined,' it is just a short 
distance to the question:  'Who has sovereignty over Taiwan if not 
the people of Taiwan?'  Ultimately, the people of Taiwan must 
determine their own future.  But now is not the time for Taiwan to 
leap into such a decision without careful preparation or without 
close consultation with its most important friends.  Now is the time 
for Taiwan to reeducate the international community that the idea 
that Taiwan is an 'integral part of the People's Republic of China' 
is, as the State Department told the UN, 'not universally held by UN 
member states, including the United States.'" 
 
YOUNG