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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 002309 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2017 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PMIL ECON EPET KDEM NI
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR DEPUTY SECRETARY NEGROPONTE 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Lisa Piascik for reasons 1.4. (b & d). 
 
¶1. (C)  Mr. Secretary, U.S. Mission Nigeria welcomes your 
November 11-13 visit to Abuja.  Your visit comes during a 
period of relative political calm as President Umaru Musa 
Yar'Adua nears the end of his first six months in office. 
With his cabinet finally in place, Yar'Adua's new 
administration is beginning to assert independence from 
former President Obasanjo and articulate its own policies. 
For the most part, we believe Nigeria is moving in a positive 
direction under the Yar'Adua regime, albeit slowly.  There 
has been some progress on rule of law and anti-corruption, 
including the acceptance of election tribunal results against 
some close to the President and the investigation of high 
level former officials.  However, more needs to be done on 
electoral reform, Niger Delta security, and economic growth 
if democracy is to truly take root and flourish here. 
 
YAR'ADUA'S CHALLENGE - ESTABLISHING LEGITIMACY 
--------------------------------------------- - 
¶2. (C)  The April 14 and 21 state and national elections, 
which brought Yar'Adua to power and secured an overwhelming 
majority of state and national political offices for the 
ruling Peoples' Democratic Party (PDP), were seriously flawed 
and lacked credibility.  More than 1,200 tribunal cases have 
been filed contesting various election results, including a 
challenge to Yar'Adua's own election.  Yar'Adua has both 
publicly and privately stressed his commitment to the rule of 
law, promising to abide by all tribunal results, including 
the one investigating his own election, should it rule 
against him.  In a recent test of his commitment, Yar'Adua 
supported the judgment and refrained from influencing the 
process that led to the nullification of his son-in-law's 
election as Governor of Kebbi State.  Yar'Adua has 
established an Electoral Reform Committee with a broad 
representation of the judiciary and civil society (including 
some respected figures well known to us); however, the 
Committee has only met once and serious questions remain as 
to how effective it will be. 
 
¶3. (C)  Yar'Adua's first challenge as president has been to 
establish his own legitimacy, since the flawed elections did 
not provide him a political mandate.  Though he was clearly 
hand-picked by former President Obasanjo, since taking office 
Yar'Adua has tried to inject his own values into the 
presidency ) stressing adherence to the rule of law and 
taking a hands off approach to the affairs of the judicial 
and legislative branches, as well as to anti-corruption 
investigations.  According to one recent poll, Yar'Adua 
enjoys a 79 percent approval rating; he is viewed by most 
Nigerians as a man of personal integrity, generally praised 
for his management of Katsina State during his tenure as 
Governor from 1999-2007. 
 
¶4. (C)  Nigerian politics today must be understood within the 
context of the ongoing battle for influence between Yar'Adua 
and former President Obasanjo -- a battle which takes place 
within the ruling PDP.  The battle slowed an already 
cumbersome process for appointing the Cabinet (under the 
Constitution, the Cabinet must have a "national character," 
meaning that each state must be represented).  Yar'Adua's 
first ministerial appointments were made more than two months 
after he took office. 
 
SCANDALS IN THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY 
--------------------------------- 
¶5. (C) Investigations were recently launched against both 
Senate President David Mark (PDP, Benue State) and House of 
Representatives Speaker Patricia Etteh (PDP, Osun State), 
both of whom were brought into office earlier this year 
through former President Obasanjo's influence over the 
Assembly.  As a result of the House investigation, Etteh 
announced on October 30 that she would step down as Speaker. 
She faced possible impeachment from both within the PDP party 
and opposition parties over her involvement in the award of a 
628 million Naira (approximately USD 5 million) contract to 
renovate her and the Deputy Speaker's residences.  The House 
has been at a virtual stand-still in plenary meetings since 
it reconvened from the summer recess on September 4, with 
even the presentation of the Appropriations Bill suffering 
delays as a result.  Senate President Mark is finding himself 
potentially in an equally precarious position, as 
investigations begin into contract awards for his own 
 
ABUJA 00002309  002 OF 003 
 
 
residential renovation, the alleged misappropriation of 2007 
Supplementary Budget to procure furniture for the new Senate 
building and the alleged payment of 500 million Naira 
(approximately USD 4 million) to television stations for live 
telecast of Ministerial nominees in July.  More 
significantly, Mark faces an appeal against his Senatorial 
election in the Benue State Electoral Tribunal, which is 
believed by many to stand a good chance of overturning the 
results. 
 
SECURITY ISSUES 
--------------- 
¶6. (C)  Yar'Adua has been sending a strong public message 
about his commitment to rule of law and to security and 
development in the Niger Delta.  While he has taken some 
preliminary actions on rule of law, to date little has been 
done to strengthen security or development in the Delta 
region.  Yar'Adua established a new committee on the Niger 
Delta headed by Vice President Goodluck Jonathan, but it 
remains, after four months, in the initial stages of 
"consultation with stakeholders" and there are concerns that 
(like previous committees on the Delta) it will be 
ineffective.  Unrest and kidnappings of foreigners subsided 
substantially in the first months of the Yar'Adua 
administration, but there have been renewed incidents of 
violence targeted at western oil facilities in the last two 
weeks.  In the short term, most militant leaders appear 
willing to exercise restraint while they await outward signs 
of progress from the Vice President's Committee.  However, 
the militants' patience has been tried by similar efforts in 
the past and they may return to widespread kidnapping and 
escalated violence if the government is not able to make a 
good faith effort on the Delta and undertake concrete actions 
to improve conditions in the region soon.  Nigeria is the 
lead African nation in the Gulf of Guinea Energy Security 
Strategy dialogue process; however, its inability to control 
the violence within the Delta is a black mark on its 
leadership.  With more than US$3 billion in U.S. investment 
(mostly in the oil industry), participation in a solution to 
the problems in the Delta is a high priority for the USG and 
U.S. oil companies alike.  Security concerns in the region 
have greatly hampered the ability of USAID and other donor 
agencies to conduct development work in the region, even 
through non-USG partners. 
 
¶7. (SBU)  Half of Nigeria's population is Muslim. 
Illiteracy, child mortality and malnutrition rates are far 
higher in the predominantly Muslim north and desertification 
and a fast growing population mean more competition for 
already scant resources.  There are concerns that government 
neglect in the area provides conditions favorable to 
extremist and terrorist organizations. 
 
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES 
------------------------------- 
¶8. (SBU)  Despite being the world's fifth largest oil 
producer, Nigeria remains a poor country facing grave health 
and social challenges.  Nigeria has a current population of 
more than 140 million and one of the highest population 
growth rates in the world (2.9 percent).  Nigeria ranks 159 
out of 177 countries on the UNDP Human Development Index and 
has not improved its standing in more than 15 years.  Oil 
accounts for 35 percent of Nigeria's GDP and over 80 percent 
of government revenue, but amounts in total to only 40 cents 
per person per day.  At least five percent of Nigeria's oil 
export output is regularly stolen and sold on the black 
market. 
 
¶9. (SBU) The Nigerian economy has been relatively stable in 
recent years, characterized by stable foreign exchange rates, 
single-digit inflation and falling interest rates.  The U.S. 
spearheaded efforts to provide Nigeria approximately US$18 
billion in Paris Club debt relief in 2005 and the government 
paid its London Club debts in early 2007.  Prudent public 
expenditure and sound fiscal policies have resulted in the 
creation of an Excess Crude Account to offset pressure for 
inflation and fiscal expansion brought about by high world 
oil prices.  Despite these substantial macroeconomic gains, 
however, investment (both domestic and foreign) remains 
critically low.  Inadequate and unreliable infrastructure 
(most notably electricity and roads) as well as mandated 
state ownership of land seriously inhibit private sector 
activity.  Government regulatory and procurement processes 
 
ABUJA 00002309  003 OF 003 
 
 
are rife with corruption and non-uniformly applied.  The 
Public Procurement Act passed in 2007; however, it has not 
yet been enacted. 
 
NIGERIA REMAINS A STRONG REGIONAL LEADER 
----------------------------------------- 
¶10. (C) The feather in Nigeria's cap and an ongoing legacy of 
the Obasanjo administration is the nation's leadership role 
in international and regional peacekeeping operations. 
Nigerian peacekeepers are currently in Sudan, and the GON has 
expressed privately its plans to keep its commitment to send 
peacekeeping troops in support of the African Union Mission 
in Somalia (AMISOM), although Nigerian military leadership is 
concerned that resources and troops are already stretched 
thin due to international obligations.  In early October, 
seven Nigerian peacekeeping soldiers were killed in Sudan and 
several others are still missing.  Despite their leadership 
in peacekeeping on the continent, the Nigerian military 
remains underfunded and is in critical need of training, 
equipment and additional personnel to meet its international 
obligations. 
 
¶11. (C) Privately, the GON is generally supportive and 
understanding of the U.S. desire to establish a military 
Africa Command (AFRICOM).  However, public paranoia (both in 
statements from the GON and press articles in general) and a 
lack of understanding of the nature of AFRICOM is 
considerable.  The source of the paranoia appears to be the 
misconception that operational U.S. troops would be stationed 
at AFRICOM.  We continue to work to educate the rest of the 
GON and the public. 
PIASCIK