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DE RUEHYD #1097 2481236
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 051236Z SEP 07
FM AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE
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INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE 0001
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C O N F I D E N T I A L YAOUNDE 001097 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/C 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA ACTION OFFICERS 
EUCOM FOR J5-1 AND POLAD YATES 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/05/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KCOR PINR CM
SUBJECT: UNPRECEDENTED PUBLIC DISSENT IN CAMEROON'S RULING 
PARTY 
 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Tad Brown for reason 1.4 (B and D). 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  Summary.  The longstanding image of President Paul 
Biya's ruling Cameroon People's Democratic Movement (CPDM) as 
a disciplined monolith was shaken when veteran CPDM official 
and National Assembly representative Adama Modi publicly 
opposed the CPDM's candidate during August 31 elections for 
the Speaker of the National Assembly.  Cavaye Yeguie Djibril 
was easily reelected to a sixteenth one-year term, but not 
until after an unprecdented public display of party 
indiscipline.  Press speculation of a "CPDM rebellion" is 
overblown, but the incident reflects a growing level of 
discontent among party faithful and the nation with the 
CPDM's authoritarian strictures that will likely crescendo 
with the approach of the anticipated 2011 succession to Biya. 
 End summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  The Speaker of the National Assembly is the 
constitutionally designated successor in case of an 
unexpected vacancy in the Presidency for a period of 45 days 
to allow for new elections.  For his previous 15 one-year 
terms as Speaker, Cavaye Yeguie Djibril was pre-selected by a 
meeting of a CPDM steering committee, essentially on 
instructions from Biya in his capacity as party president, 
and his selection before the CPDM-controlled National 
Assembly was a foregone conclusion.  There had been 
tremendous speculation as to whether Cavaye would be proposed 
for another term.  He had garnered unwelcome press attention 
during the 2007 parliamentary and municipal elections for his 
offer to pay 100,000 CFA (about $200) to those CPDM district 
heads who delivered 100 percent turnout in favor of the CPDM, 
and some commentators called for his prosecution for having 
violated electoral laws that prohibit offering inducements 
for votes.  Cavaye is widely perceived to be unpopular among 
his supposed constituency in the north where, in any event, 
the CPDM lost ground to the opposition National Union for 
Democracy and Progress (UNDP) party in the 2007 elections. 
Perhaps more significantly, a rumored campaign by notables 
from Cameroon's northern provinces to forfeit the Speaker 
position in favor of having a northerner as Prime Minister 
(which has gone to an Anglophone in recent cabinets) fueled 
speculation that Cavaye might be jettisoned. 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  Nevertheless, no one anticipated that the CPDM's 
(and Biya's) choice, once made, would face any public debate 
from within the party.  When Cavaye's candidacy was presented 
to the Assembly on August 31, however, Adama Modi, a former 
Secretary of State in the Ministry of Territorial 
 
SIPDIS 
Administration and a CPDM representative from the Extreme 
North Province, voiced his objection, which sparked applause 
from some opposition and CPDM MPs.  Press reports indicate 
that CPDM heavyweights, including ministers from Cameroon's 
northern provinces and senior party leaders, were called to 
the National Assembly to inveigh personally on Modi to drop 
his opposition.  In the end, Modi stormed out of the chamber 
as the election went forward.  Cavaye was re-elected with 130 
votes and 13 abstentions within the CPDM party caucus. 
 
¶4.  (C)  In a September 4 meeting with Charge, Prime Minister 
Inoni characterized Modi's opposition (and presumably, some 
of the support shown by other MPs) as "unprecedented" and 
attributed it to the desire among northern officials to pass 
over the position of Speaker of the Assembly in favor of the 
Prime Minister slot. 
 
¶5.  (C)  Comment.  Biya's decision to retain Cavaye may 
reflect his desire to have a known, loyal agent at 
Parliament's helm, regardless of Cavaye's baggage.  While 
Modi's public opposition to Biya's will could not have been 
predicted, certainly the CPDM leadership knew it would face 
criticism for sticking with Cavaye despite his campaign 
gaffes and general unpopularity.  Inoni's offered explanation 
does not tell the whole story; Modi's unprecedented outburst 
is more than just regional politicking.  The CPDM grassroots 
are increasingly chafing at the party's centralized 
leadership and demanding a larger role in party decisions. 
We saw this during the CPDM primaries for the 2007 elections, 
and it appears to be gaining strength.  Increasingly, all 
eyes will be on the anticipated presidential succession in 
2011 - unless Biya uses his large parliamentary majority and 
handpicked Speaker to change the constitution so he can run 
for another term.  Either way, internal jockeying for power 
within the CPDM will likely increase.  End comment. 
NELSON