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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 SUVA 000442 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/07/2017 
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR PHUM TN
SUBJECT: SCENE-SETTER FOR COMMANDER PACOM VISIT TO TONGA 
 
REF: A. SUVA 435 
 
     ¶B. USDAO SUVA 131933Z AUG 07 
     ¶C. SUVA 405 (AND PREVIOUS) 
 
Classified By: Amb. Dinger.  Sec. 1.4 (B,D). 
 
Summary 
------- 
¶1. (C) A first visit to the Kingdom of Tonga is always 
fascinating, as is a meeting with eccentric King George V. 
The U.S. and Tonga have friendly relations, especially 
mil/mil, as evidenced by the new Tonga Defense Service (TDS) 
deployment to Iraq.  Within Tonga, pro-democracy sentiments 
have been building for several years.  The U.S. encourages a 
Tonga-managed transition to a Tongan-style democracy at as 
rapid a pace as Tongans can accept.  Pro-democracy activists 
want major results yesterday.  Conservatives want no change. 
Frictions led to a devastating riot last November that 
shocked everyone.  It appears all now agree that major 
reforms are inevitable; the remaining questions are pace and 
"nut and bolt" details.  The TDS will play a role. 
Historically its loyalty has been to the King, who is 
seemingly now on board to limit his own powers dramatically. 
As the democratic evolution unfolds, it will be important for 
the U.S. to encourage the TDS to be a force that accepts, and 
helps ensure, a securely democratic future for Tonga.  End 
summary. 
 
Friendly bilateral relations 
---------------------------- 
¶2. (U) The U.S. relationship with the Kingdom of Tonga has 
been friendly for many years.  The current six-month 
deployment of 55 TDS troops to Iraq, with plans for a 
follow-on deployment, illustrates the close mil/mil ties. 
The annual Exercise Tafakula is further proof.  Many Tongans 
reside in the United States, especially in Utah, California, 
and Hawaii.  Tonga often votes with the U.S. at the UNGA and 
in other international fora.  Peace Corps has been active in 
Tonga since the 1960s. 
 
A monarchy with British touches 
------------------------------- 
¶3. (C) The "friendly islands" of Tonga were not a united 
monarchy until the mid-1800s, when King George I accomplished 
that feat.  Tonga then solidified its political system via 
the Constitution of 1875, which made the King head of state 
with broad powers over the Parliament that consists of the 
King's Cabinet (12-16 people), 9 Nobles (elected by the 33 
Nobles of the Realm), and 9 People's Representatives (elected 
every three years in general elections).  The King chooses 
the Prime Minister, who, until recently, was almost always a 
royal or noble.  The political system ensured Parliament 
would abide by the King's wishes.  Britain took a fatherly 
interest in Tongan governance from the mid-1800s until 
recently, but Tonga was never formally a colony.  The King 
has ruled. 
 
Anti-royal, pro-democratic stirrings in the populace 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
¶4. (C) Not surprisingly, some Tongans have chafed at the lack 
of genuine democracy.  Since the late 1980s, the most 
prominent reform advocate has been Akilisi Pohiva, a People's 
Rep from the main island, Tongatapu.  For many years, his 
calls for a more democratic system appeared futile.  However, 
popular sentiment has been building, in part stimulated by 
royal insensitivity.  King Tupou IV, who died at age 88 on 
September 10, 2006, chose some very odd advisors, including 
an American "court jester" who reportedly squandered millions 
of dollars of Tonga investments.  The late King's children 
made sweet-heart deals with government agencies.  Now-King 
George V, gained the electricity monopoly, which he named 
"Shoreline."  Princess Pilolevu gained TongaSat, which leases 
satellite slots to Chinese entities.  The youngest child, 
now-Crown Prince Tupouto'a Lavaka'ata, has a lucrative land 
lease with the LDS Church.  There are many more examples. 
The public noticed. 
 
¶5. (C) A complicating factor was that the now-Crown Prince 
became Prime Minister in 2000.  His instincts were very 
conservative, at a time when the public mood was stirring. 
In 2005, the Tonga Government began to implement 
civil-service reforms that inexplicably raised the wages for 
top-tier public servants before assisting those at the 
bottom.  Civil servants hit the streets in a strike that 
lasted for seven weeks, became very bitter as the PM 
stone-walled, and became a rallying point for pro-democracy 
 
SUVA 00000442  002 OF 004 
 
 
campaigners as well.  In the end, Princess Pilolevu 
capitulated on behalf of the government when the PM was 
abroad.  Almost immediately, pro-democracy activists flexed 
their muscles with a demonstration that brought thousands to 
the streets of the capital.  Signs and slogans were 
vehemently anti-royal. 
 
Sensing the inevitability of reform; U.S. view 
--------------------------------------------- - 
¶6. (C) As a result, for the first time, all elements in Tonga 
began to consider if a more democratic future was inevitable. 
 The U.S. has encouraged a Tonga-managed transition to a 
meaningful Tonga-style democracy at as rapid a pace as 
Tongans can accept.  In late 2005, Parliament established, 
with royal assent, a National Committee for Political Reform, 
headed by a royal cousin, Prince Tu'ipelehake.  The NCPR held 
discussions throughout Tonga and in New Zealand, Australia, 
and the U.S.  (Tu'ipelehake was killed in a car crash near 
San Francisco during the U.S. leg of the trip.)  The late 
King initiated some reforms.  He for the first time chose two 
People's Reps (one of them now-PM Fred Sevele) to be members 
of Cabinet.  Later, on advice of now-King George V, the late 
King removed younger son Lavaka'ata as PM and replaced him 
with Sevele, the first commoner to be PM since a Brit in the 
late 1800s.  In September 2006, the NCPR issued a report to 
Parliament that recommended dramatic reform: a fully elected 
Parliament, with a majority of People's Reps and with 
Parliament selecting its Prime Minister.  The King presumably 
would act on "advice" of Parliament. 
 
Attempt at slowing pace results in riot 
--------------------------------------- 
¶7. (C) Some in Tonga, including PM Sevele, worried 
conservative elements would forcibly resist any rapid reforms 
that caused power to flow from the King to commoners.  Some 
presumed the King was egging Sevele on.  Sevele proposed an 
alternative plan that might leave the King with a delicate 
balance of power in Parliament.  The Government then slowed 
Parliament's deliberative process.  Pro-democracy forces were 
outraged and began public demonstrations.  Last November 16, 
pro-Government demonstrators also hit the streets.  Some 
others with private agendas got involved.  A riot erupted 
from the anti-Government throng that brought destruction to 
many businesses in the central district.  Businesses of the 
King and PM Sevele were destroyed.  Chinese-owned businesses 
were also targeted.  Eight rioters died in a torched 
building.  It was a shocking day for normally laid-back 
Tonga, and it sobered everyone. 
 
Dealing with crimes; TDS role 
----------------------------- 
¶8. (C) Tonga Police were ineffective in responding to the 
riot.  PM Sevele called on the TDS, with some Australian and 
New Zealand assistance, to restore order and begin 
interrogating/arresting wrong-doers.  Many Tongans blamed 
much of the violence on "deportees" from the United States. 
Some "deportees" were probably involved, but almost certainly 
most of those who committed crimes were home-grown.  There 
were reports of human-rights violations.  Activists claimed 
many violations; the TDS claimed very few, and it says all 
were investigated and dealt with.  PM Sevele was extremely 
embittered by the riot, and he blamed the pro-democracy 
leaders, his old friends.  Those leaders have acknowledged 
stirring political pressure for the reform agenda, but they 
deny planning or instigating the riot.  Criminal cases 
against alleged perpetrators, including five People's Reps, 
are moving through the courts.  A state of emergency that 
gives the TDS special law-and-order powers has been renewed 
monthly, and probably will stay in place until after the 
trials conclude. 
 
Re-starting reform; real progress made 
-------------------------------------- 
¶9. (C) Immediately after the riot, the King gave a 
forward-looking speech at the close of Parliament, expressing 
sorrow for the devastation but calling for continuation of 
inevitable reform.  For many months, Sevele was visibly 
reluctant to re-start the reform agenda.  However, it appears 
he came to realize, as others did, that popular resentment 
was beginning to stir toward the surface again.  Nobody 
wanted another riot.  In June, Parliament set up a 
"tripartite committee" (Cabinet, Nobles, People's Reps) to 
attempt to find the future.  In a matter of weeks, the group 
announced agreement on a proposal for a new Parliament with 9 
Nobles, 17 People's Reps, and up to 4 members selected by the 
King, a clear People's Rep majority.  The Parliament would 
 
SUVA 00000442  003 OF 004 
 
 
choose the PM from within, and the PM would select the 
Cabinet from within.  We hear the King is on board with that 
plan. 
 
But tough issues remain 
----------------------- 
¶10. (C) Sticking points remain.  The Constitution requires an 
election every three years.  The next one is due in January 
¶2008.  People's Reps want to stick to that schedule.  Sevele 
wants to put off the election to 2011, to let passions calm 
and perhaps to gain political and/or economic advantage in 
the meantime.  Reportedly, People's Reps are now willing to 
accept 2009, and Sevele 2010.  We hear the King would have 
OKed 2008.  He wants to move on.  The other big issues 
remaining are the details of electoral districts and voting 
processes.  Those details matter to individual politicians as 
they calculate their futures.  There has been no consensus, 
and the tripartite committee has referred unresolved issues 
back to Parliament to chew on.  Until Parliament votes for a 
plan and the King approves, nothing is in final. 
 
Rebuilding is slow, costly, and controversial 
--------------------------------------------- 
¶11. (C) The process of rebuilding Nuku'alofa is off to a slow 
start.  Insurance companies have been reluctant to pay.  Some 
contracts have "insurrection" or "riot" clauses.  Sevele, 
himself, reportedly has been under severe financial pressure, 
though we hear he may be reaching a settlement on his 
insurance shortly.  Commercial banks, unwilling to accept 
exchange-rate risk, will not bring in sufficient off-shore 
capital to finance most reconstruction.  Australia and New 
Zealand are offering only modest sums to help make loans 
concessional.  At one point, Sevele asked if the U.S. Army 
Corps of Engineers might help rebuild infrastructure, though 
he never followed up.  Tonga approached the PRC Government 
and has received a US$55 million loan.  We hear it is tied 
aid, and that future exchange-rate revisions could make it 
very expensive. The King has taken a personal interest in 
rebuilding plans.  He is working with Chinese architects on a 
vision to tear down the heart of central Nuku'alofa and 
replace it with...some suggest the blueprint evokes the 
Italian Renaissance or London's Horse Guards Parade, not a 
South Pacific theme.  Many details remain unresolved, 
including how Tonga businesses will be convinced to 
participate in the scheme by leasing space. 
 
Economy in trouble 
------------------ 
¶12. (C) The strike settlement in 2005 raised the salaries of 
lower-paid public servants by 60-80% and put government 
finances under severe strain.  In the best of times, the 
Tonga economy is fragile, based on pumpkin exports to Japan, 
a smattering of tourists, and large-scale remittances from 
Tongans abroad.  More Tongans live in Australia, New Zealand, 
and the U.S. than live in Tonga, and remittances reportedly 
constitute more than half of Tonga's GDP, providing the only 
safety net for the poor.  The Tonga Government has invoked 
creative means, including a 2006 redundancy package that 
reduced the civil service by over 20%, to keep fiscally 
afloat.  Reportedly the IMF is worried that the Chinese loan 
for Nuku'alofa reconstruction will be unaffordable; but the 
Sevele government, seeing no other obvious means to finance 
reconstruction, pushed it through. 
 
The China factor 
---------------- 
¶13. (C) Chinese relations are worth noting.  For many years, 
Tonga had extremely close relations with Taiwan.  The Crown 
Prince (now King George V) was particularly friendly.  Then 
in 1998, relations suddenly switched to the PRC, most likely 
through efforts of Princess Pilolevu and her TongaSat 
connections.  For several years, Tonga sold "investor" 
passports to Chinese citizens.  To Tonga's surprise, a number 
of the passport holders actually came to Tonga.  Then 
relatives and friends followed.  Before the riot, most small 
retail shops in Nuku'alofa had become Chinese owned and 
operated.  Many Tongans, including other businessmen like 
Sevele, resented the Chinese in-flow.  Thus, the targeting of 
Chinese shops in the riot was not surprising.  Many Chinese 
fled Tonga immediately afterward, though we hear some are 
trickling back.  The Chinese Embassy cultivates the Tongan 
royal family (the King is rumored to have a $30 million 
interest-free loan); other Tongan leaders receive trips; and 
there are the usual PRC offers of heavily tied infrastructure 
projects.  We hear the King has been frustrated at his 
Government's inability to untie post-riot reconstruction aid. 
 
SUVA 00000442  004 OF 004 
 
 
 
Reconciliation versus riot control 
---------------------------------- 
¶14. (C) Many nerves in post-riot Tonga remain raw, on all 
sides.  The King is still seen by many commoners as detached, 
effete, profligate, and (perhaps unfairly) undemocratic. 
Many pro-democracy activists blame Sevele for the riot and 
for slowing change.  The King and Sevele are clearly worried 
about the public mood.  The King reportedly is insisting on 
flat roofs in his architectural plans for Nuku'alofa, so 
snipers can easily position themselves to shoot future 
rioters.  The King is seeking donor assistance for a "horse 
guards" unit, 200 horses strong, ostensibly for ceremony but 
primarily for future crowd control.  Reconciliation is 
necessary, and some efforts are beginning.  Sevele has named 
a Utah-Tongan to head the Government's effort, aimed to 
culminate this year during the week of November 16. 
 
Internal political-military dynamics 
------------------------------------ 
¶15. (C) The future of the TDS bears pondering.  It has always 
been seen as the King's force.  Its loyalty has always been 
to the Crown.  That has worked to the advantage of the U.S. 
in the decision-making about Tonga contributing again to PKO 
in Iraq.  All Tongan leaders understand the usefulness of 
Tonga helping us to achieve international peace and 
stability, but PM Sevele and Foreign/Defense Minister Tu'a 
are doubtful about Iraq.  Sevele sees political peril if 
there are casualties.  Tu'a perhaps figures that other 
nations are withdrawing from that cause.  In Defense Board 
deliberations, the King, assisted by Brigadier General 
Uta'atu, trumped, and the deployments are to happen. 
However, Sevele and Tu'a have now called for a U.S. "quid pro 
quo": find a way to adjudicate visas for Tongan applicants in 
Tonga rather than in Suva, or Tonga "will not be disposed" to 
assist the U.S. "in the military and other fields." 
Washington is working on a response. 
 
Nurturing the appropriate TDS role 
---------------------------------- 
¶16. (C) The day-to-day role the TDS has taken during the 
state of emergency has reportedly raised hackles among some 
in the public.  BG Uta'atu has plans to dramatically expand 
the size and capabilities of his force.  From the perspective 
of having more Tongan help in international PKO, that idea is 
very attractive.  However, at times Uta'atu has given the 
impression he is getting quite comfortable with his powers 
under the state of emergency.  He is a friend of Fiji's 
Commodore Bainimarama, and he has some sympathy for the Fiji 
military's assumption that it has a caretaker role over 
politics.  As Tonga's transition from monarchy to democracy 
moves forward, it will be important for the U.S. to encourage 
the TDS, to the extent possible, to be a force that accepts 
and helps ensure a democratic future for Tonga. 
 
Themes for discussion 
--------------------- 
¶17. (C) In conversations with the King, PM Sevele (if he is 
on island), Foreign/Defense Minister Tu'a, and BG Uta'atu, 
the main topic presumably will be the close U.S.-Tonga 
military relationship.  The politicians understand the 
usefulness of Tonga contributing to international PKO -- they 
have approved Tonga contributions to RAMSI in the Solomons 
and to UNAMI; but there is a need to counter what Sevele and 
Tu'a see as the domestic-political down-side of the Iraq 
deployment.  As opportunities arise in discussions, it will 
be useful to reconfirm the USG's support for Tonga's 
inevitable transformation to a more democratic future, at as 
rapid a pace as Tongans can accept, with the TDS playing a 
constructive role in that process.  Also, as the TDS expands 
in size, it will be in the U.S. interest to have that larger 
force deploying abroad to assist in PKO, rather than focusing 
internally on domestic politics. 
DINGER