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P 131553Z SEP 07
FM AMEMBASSY PARIS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0118
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PRIORITY 5964
RUEHPS/USOFFICE PRISTINA PRIORITY
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 1361

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 003823 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/13/2017 
TAGS: PREL PGOV UNSC YI DSR EU FR
SUBJECT: KOSOVO: GOF NOTES PROGRESS ON INDEPENDENCE IN THE 
EU 
 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL MINISTER-COUNSELOR JOSIAH ROSENBLATT FOR REASO 
NS 1.4 (B) AND (D) 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY:  GOF officials told us on September 12 that 
they are increasingly optimistic that the EU will come to a 
consensus on the recognition of an independent Kosovo after 
the December 10 Troika deadline.  Edouard Beslay, the MFA's 
DAS-equivalent for the Balkans, told us that only seven of 
the 27 member states still oppose the EU's recognition of a 
Kosovar UDI.  Beslay was optimistic that despite some 
remaining hurdles, the atmospherics for recognition were 
improving.  Isabelle Dumont, FM Kouchner's Balkans Counselor, 
told us in a separate meeting that the Minister was feeling 
increasingly confident about EU unity, particularly after a 
very positive visit to Bucharest.  Kouchner, in spite of a 
very busy schedule, Dumont told us, was taking an active role 
in lobbying for EU unity. She also noted that Kosovo is on 
the FM's agenda for September 17/18 talks with Russian FM 
Lavrov in Moscow. 
 
¶2. (C) SUMMARY CONTINUED: While Beslay was optimistic about 
EU unity on independence, he was relatively pessimistic about 
the possibility of EU consensus on using UNSCR 1244 as the 
legal basis for an EU mission in Kosovo.  NATO's KFOR 
mission, Beslay said, would likely have to continue as the 
sole framework for an international military presence in 
Kosovo.  Both Dumont and Beslay noted that Kouchner remains 
convinced that there can be a resolution between the parties, 
but that he is unlikely to make any surprising moves without 
first consulting Quint members.  They both expect Kouchner 
will be testing potential solutions with Quint allies over 
the next several weeks, including with the Secretary. END 
SUMMARY 
 
MORE EU UNITY ON INDEPENDENCE 
----------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) In separate meetings on September 12, Edouard Beslay, 
DAS-equivalent for the Balkans, and Isabelle Dumont, FM 
Kouchner's Balkans Counselor, told us that they are 
increasingly optimistic that the EU will come to a consensus 
on the recognition of an independent Kosovo after the 
December 10 Troika deadline.  Beslay said that, as of the 
September 8 Portugal Gymnich, only seven of the 27 member 
states still oppose the EU's recognition of Kosovo's 
independence. Dumont noted that despite a busy schedule, 
Kouchner had made a strong effort to lobby for EU unity with 
his EU counterparts.  Kouchner's September 3 trip to 
Bucharest, Dumont said, was very successful in convincing the 
Romanians to follow the example of the Slovaks and agree not 
to block consensus. Dumont described Kouchner's strategy as 
en effort to secure EU unity "little by little."  She also 
pointed to Kouchner and Miliband's joint op-ed in The 
Guardian (Sept. 6 edition) and Le Monde (Sept. 7 edition) as 
having played a helpful role in setting the tone for private 
discussions at the Gymnich. 
 
EU POLICE & RULE OF LAW MISSION STILL IN JEOPARDY 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶4. (C) While Beslay was positive about the progress made 
towards EU unity on the recognition of an independent Kosovo, 
he was pessimistic about consensus on the legal basis for the 
once envisioned ESDP-led police and rule of law mission. 
Beslay said that arguments favoring UNSCR 1244 as a legal 
foundation for the EU mission (in the event of EU recognition 
of a Kosovar UDI) were not gaining traction with several 
European capitals.  He emphasized that many states including 
Sweden and Denmark would only accept a new UNSCR as the basis 
for the ESDP mission.  The GOF, Beslay stressed, is very 
concerned that NATO's KFOR will have no choice but to 
continue its mission in Kosovo.  This could present problems 
if countries like Germany are forced to reconsider their 
troop contributions.  For the moment, Beslay said, the German 
government believes it does not need a new mandate from the 
parliament to continue the mission, but Beslay judged that 
there are potential legal and political uncertainties for 
Germany, and possibly other contributing nations.  He also 
noted that the lack of the envisaged ESDP-led mission in 
Kosovo would not ease the path towards normalization of the 
region. 
 
THE TROIKA'S EFFORTS 
-------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) Dumont told us that FM Kouchner has confidence in 
Ischinger, the Troika's EU representative, and was 
particularly impressed by Ischinger's presentation at the 
September 8 Gymnich.  Ischinger, Dumont said, offered a 
 
PARIS 00003823  002 OF 002 
 
 
realistic analysis of the parties, willingness to negotiate 
and began preparing EU members for the inevitable failure to 
find a settlement.  Both Beslay and Dumont stressed that 
Kouchner remains disappointed that the Troika is not taking a 
proactive role in suggesting possible solutions.  Beslay told 
us that the FM understood, however, that there is no desire 
in Quint capitals to move in that direction.  Dumont 
continued to push for more Franco-American dialogue on 
potential solutions, such as Dumont's "association of states" 
concept. 
 
FM KOUCHNER'S NEXT STEPS 
------------------------ 
 
¶6. (C) Dumont told us that Kosovo is on Kouchner's agenda for 
his talks in Moscow September 17/18.  She assured us that the 
Minister would not make any proposals to Russian FM Lavrov, 
but rather, would attempt to gauge Russia's overall 
flexibility.  The GOF has not completely given up on a new 
UNSCR, Dumont added, and would continue to push the GOR. 
Dumont and Beslay expect that Kouchner will be reaching out 
to Quint FMs, ahead of the Contact Group Ministerial in New 
York on September 28, in an effort to measure reaction to his 
ideas for a settlement between the parties.  Both Dumont and 
Beslay said that while the GOF's fundamental position is 
clear and that Kouchner sees no other future for Kosovo other 
than eventual independence, the FM is also convinced that a 
negotiated solution is possible and preferred.  Dumont and 
Beslay added, however, that they believe the FM understands 
the need to have Quint support, and they do not expect 
Kouchner to make any proposals without first consulting 
allies. 
 
SERBIAN POLITICS 
---------------- 
 
¶7. (C) Serbian President Tadic's presidency is in jeopardy, 
Beslay judged.  With Kostunica refusing to allow for 
presidential elections before the Troika's December 10 
deadline, Tadic will be forced to run for reelection after 
Kosovo's UDI -- in a potentially explosive atmosphere.  While 
Tadic has some options, Beslay said, none of them leave him 
in a very strong position.  Beslay told us that Sarkozy will 
invite Tadic to Paris in October 2007 to discuss Kosovo, 
Franco-Serbian relations, and Serbia's future in the EU. 
Kostunica will likely seek an invitation as well, but the GOF 
will not invite him prior to the December 10 deadline.  With 
Kostunica publicly discussing a possible break of diplomatic 
relations with states that recognize Kosovo's UDI, the GOF 
sees more utility in extending an invitation to Kostunica 
after December 10.  Beslay said that, in the meantime, the 
GOF will continue to try and convince Serbian leaders of the 
utility of moving forward on Serbia's future in the EU.  In 
doing so, the GOF will ask Serbian authorities to take a 
measured response to Kosovo's UDI, instead of taking a 
counterproductive position. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶8. (C) While GOF analysis is relatively positive concerning 
EU unity on recognizing an independent Kosovo, officials 
remain seriously concerned about the EU police and rule of 
law mission as well as about the future stability of Serbia 
and the region.  While the FM's advisors believe Kouchner 
will consult with Quint allies before making any proposals, 
they also noted that the Minister is quite frustrated and 
often unpredictable.  Given Kouchner's personal and very 
emotional interest in the issue, and his penchant for 
surprises, it is hard to judge whether and how he might seek 
to personally intervene in negotiations ahead of the December 
10 deadline. 
 
Please visit Paris' Classified Website at: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm 
 
 
Stapleton