VZCZCXRO9695
OO RUEHBL
DE RUEHDL #0748/01 2701236
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 271236Z SEP 07
FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8622
INFO RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON IMMEDIATE 2408
RUEHBL/AMCONSUL BELFAST IMMEDIATE 0624

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DUBLIN 000748 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/WE - YODER 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON ETRD EINV MOPPS MARR EI
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR FOREIGN MINISTER DERMOT AHERN'S 
MEETING WITH THE SECRETARY ON OCTOBER 3 
 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) The twin political successes of restoration of the 
Northern Ireland Assembly (May 8, 2007) and the re-election 
of the Fianna Fail party into power (May 24, 2007) will be 
the backdrop to Foreign Minister Dermot Ahern's meeting with 
the Secretary on October 3.  The Government of Ireland has 
expressed its gratitude for the role the United States played 
in the Northern Ireland peace process for many years and 
appreciates our continued support as the focus in the North 
turns to economic growth and reconciliation.  Ireland hopes 
to use its experience in the North to promote international 
conflict resolution activities; the Department of Foreign 
Affairs has established a Conflict Resolution Unit to that 
end.  Darfur is of particular interest to Minister Ahern 
following his 2006 visit to the region.  Ireland has taken an 
active role through the European Union in working to improve 
conditions in the Middle East and Kosovo, and is more 
inclined than some European counties to take decisive action 
in Burma.  Irish Government concerns about the status of 
illegal Irish citizens in the U.S. arises perennially.  The 
Secretary last met Foreign Minister Ahern on December 1, 2005 
 
SIPDIS 
in Washington.  End summary. 
 
The Domestic Political Background 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) The May 2007 election brought Fianna Fail and 
Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Bertie Ahern back to power in a 
coalition government for an unprecedented third five-year 
term.  Coalition members joining Fianna Fail were the Green 
Party and the Progressive Democrats.  While relations among 
the three coalition partners will probably not be quite as 
smooth as in the previous coalition (which comprised Fianna 
Fail and the Progressive Democrats), the new government has 
settled down to business as usual.  In recent months the 
Mahon Tribunal has been investigating allegations of 
corruption against the Taoiseach when he was Minister of 
Finance in the early 1990s.  However, while bruised, the 
Taoiseach does not appear to have suffered politically.  The 
coalition is intact; on September 26 the Taoiseach handily 
survived a vote of no confidence on the issue.  In terms of 
immediate U.S. interests, despite Green Party resistance, the 
new government remains committed to facilitating U.S. 
military transits at Shannon and Dublin airports.  (1,973 
flights ferried 281,000 troops through Shannon in 2006.) 
 
Sustained Economic Success 
-------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) For two decades the Irish economy has been booming. 
 Growth has been supported by a host of factors including a 
well-educated work force, low taxes, a relatively open 
economy, and a healthy dollop of foreign direct investment -- 
primarily from the U.S.  In fact, U.S. investment stock in 
Ireland stands at $62 billion; in 2006 American investment 
totaled 67 percent of foreign direct investment in Ireland. 
Such success continued in 2006 with the Irish economy 
remaining a pacesetter in Europe, registering roughly five 
percent GDP growth and virtual full employment for the third 
consecutive year.  Economic prosperity and the availability 
of jobs have attracted an estimated 300,000 (mostly Eastern 
European) migrants since 2004, reversing Ireland's 
long-standing image as a country of outward migration. 
Roughly one in four migrants work in construction, and a 
potential vulnerability for the economy is the slowdown now 
underway in the previously red-hot housing market.  Another 
concern is Ireland's ability to compete with low-cost 
economies, such as India and China, for U.S. foreign direct 
investment, one of the drivers of Ireland's Celtic Tiger 
success.  Economists caution that Ireland is also vulnerable 
to inflation, which is now close to 5 percent. 
 
Bilateral Agenda Items 
---------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Irish Government sources say that Foreign Minister 
Ahern will raise the following issues during his meeting with 
the Secretary. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Northern Ireland.  Anchored in the 1998 Good Friday 
Agreement and the 2006 St. Andrew's Agreement, the Northern 
Ireland Assembly (Stormont) was restored in May 2007 for the 
first time since October 2002, led by First Minister Ian 
Paisley of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and Deputy 
First Minister Martin McGuinness of Sinn Fein.  The new 
Assembly has taken up the reins of local government in a 
 
DUBLIN 00000748  002 OF 003 
 
 
remarkably bipartisan fashion.  The U.S. continues to work 
with the Irish Government and the Northern Ireland Assembly 
to promote collaborative North-South initiatives that will 
help seal the peace in the North, including a planned May 
2008 investment conference in Belfast.  During an August 14 
meeting between the Secretary and newly appointed Irish 
Ambassador Michael Collins, Collins suggested a POTUS meeting 
with Paisley and McGuinness.  Minister Ahern is likely to 
reiterate this suggestion during his meeting with the 
Secretary. 
 
SIPDIS 
 
¶6. (SBU) Darfur.  Ireland has been deeply engaged in Africa 
since the 19th century missionary era, and the Irish 
Government has recently focused its diplomatic efforts on 
Darfur.  In July 2006, Minister Ahern visited Irish aid 
workers in Darfur and pressed leaders in Khartoum to accept 
UN peace-keepers to complement the African Union Mission in 
Sudan (AMIS).  Minister Ahern is reportedly interested in a 
special diplomatic role for himself in a region of conflict 
(to be determined), and believes his 2005 experience as 
Special Envoy for UN Reform and as a Northern Ireland 
negotiator could give him credibility on Darfur.  Ireland has 
joined the European Union's (EU) Nordic battlegroup (with 
Sweden, Finland, and Denmark), which is slated to begin new 
peacekeeping duties in Eastern Chad, adjacent to Darfur. 
Upwards of 200 Irish troops may be involved. 
 
¶7. (SBU) The Middle East.  The Irish Government and public 
have long-standing sympathies for the Palestinian cause, and 
the Taoiseach has led off discussions with high-ranking USG 
visitors in the past by expressing concern about perceived 
indiscriminate Israeli responses to Palestinian violence. 
Ireland agrees with the U.S. that the Abbas Government must 
be supported.  At the same time, Ireland believes that Israel 
needs to enhance its dialogue with the Palestinians, shore up 
Abbas's position, and encourage reconciliation among the 
Palestinian factions.  Ireland is especially concerned about 
the humanitarian crisis facing Gaza.  Regarding Lebanon, 
Ireland joined the original UNIFIL force in the 1970s and 
contributed 150 troops to the bolstered UNIFIL mission in 
2006 in the aftermath of the Israeli-Hizbollah conflict. 
Ireland generally favors dialogue over sanctions and is 
unlikely to deviate from EU policy in the Middle East. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Kosovo.  Ireland strongly supports UN Special Envoy 
Ahtisaari's roadmap for Kosovar independence from Serbia and 
favors the integration of the western Balkans into the EU, 
pending necessary political reforms in the region.  In 
August, Ireland became the "Framework Nation" (the lead 
nation in the multinational task force) in Kosovo in a KFOR 
brigade that includes 270 Irish troops.  Nonetheless, Ireland 
is nervous about forcing Kosovar independence and continues 
to prefer a negotiated settlement between Kosovo and Serbia. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Burma.  Ireland is very concerned about the 
fast-paced escalation of violence in Burma, in which Minister 
Ahern has taken a deep personal interest.  Within the EU, 
Ireland falls in the spectrum of countries that feel the 
situation is critical and decisive action is needed.  While 
leaning toward the imposition of sanctions, Ireland wants to 
be convinced that sanctions won't simply push the poor over 
the edge.  Irish Ambassadors in China, India, and ASEAN 
nations are consulting closely with the leadership of those 
nations in an effort to establish a common, productive way 
forward.  In discussing Burma with the Secretary, Minister 
Ahern will be seeking common ground with the U.S. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Iran.  Irish officials are concerned about Iran's 
failure to comply with UNSCRs 1737 and 1747 and are very 
suspicious of Iran's motives in engaging IAEA.  Nonetheless, 
Ireland continues to prefer dialogue over sanctions and was 
willing to talk with Iranian envoys at a high level (at their 
request) prior to the IAEA General Conference on September 
17-21 (though the proposed meeting never took place because 
the envoys did not follow through).  The bottom line: The 
Irish Government will abide by EU consensus on how best to 
deal with Iran. 
 
¶11. (SBU) Immigration.  The Irish Government continues to 
consult with Members of Congress and Irish-American groups on 
behalf of Irish residing illegally in the United States, 
variously estimated at between 5,000 and 50,000.  Minister 
Ahern will likely ask the Secretary if a special deal can be 
struck for the Irish "undocumented" residents (as the Irish 
refer to them).  Irish Ambassador Michael Collins raised this 
concern with you on August 14 and met on September 21 with 
Consular Affairs Assistant Secretary Maura Harty, where he 
made a pitch for a special bilateral agreement between the 
 
DUBLIN 00000748  003 OF 003 
 
 
U.S. and Ireland that would ease the flow of people back and 
forth, perhaps akin to the existing E-3  visa agreement with 
Australia.  This issue poses a domestic political problem for 
the Irish Government, since families throughout Ireland are 
unable to bring home "undocumented" family members for 
funerals, weddings, etc., without jeopardizing the ability of 
those family members to return to their U.S. homes. 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Afghanistan.  Ireland supports U.S. and NATO 
objectives in Afghanistan.  It participates in the NATO 
Partnership for Peace program, supplying seven troops to the 
International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in 
Afghanistan.  While the Irish Government extended the tours 
of duty of their contingent from four months to six in May 
2007 (at the urging of Embassy Dublin), so as to better 
accommodate ISAF rotational schedules, Ireland is unlikely to 
assign additional troops to ISAF. 
 
¶13. (SBU) International Conflict Resolution.  In concert with 
the newly established Conflict Resolution Unit (CRU) in the 
Department of Foreign Affairs, Embassy Dublin is seeking ways 
in which Ireland and the U.S. might collaborate in an 
international conflict resolution endeavor, utilizing the 
special Irish expertise gained in dealing with the sectarian 
conflict in Northern Ireland.  The CRU is currently 
developing a plan of action.  Minister Ahern will mention 
this initiative in his address to the UN General Assembly on 
October 2.  Ambassador Foley and Minister Ahern have 
discussed this concept and both are enthusiastic about future 
U.S.-Irish collaboration. 
 
¶14. (SBU) Climate Change.  Ireland's rapid economic growth 
has made it difficult for the country to meet its Kyoto 
Protocol commitments.  Under the Protocol, Ireland pledged to 
reduce emissions to 13 percent above 1990 levels by 2012, but 
emissions now stand at 25 percent above the 1990 threshold. 
In this context, the Government has welcomed Embassy 
proposals for a cooperative approach to climate change, and 
we are working on bilateral initiatives focused on ocean/wave 
energy, methane capture, and clean coal technologies.  The 
Green Party's entry into Ireland's coalition government has 
brought environmental issues, such as climate change, further 
into the spotlight. 
FAUCHER