VZCZCXYZ0003
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHJB #0682/01 2680856
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 250856Z SEP 07
FM AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0602
INFO RUEHXR/RWANDA COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS BUJUMBURA 000682 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/C 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PINR PGOV BY
SUBJECT: DAS SWAN URGES DIALOGUE TO RESOLVE BURUNDI'S 
POLITICAL, FINANCIAL, AND MILITARY PROBLEMS 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: In meetings with high level government 
officials on September 18-19, Deputy Assistant Secretary for 
African Affairs James Swan expressed support for Burundi's 
transition to a post conflict society while cautioning 
officials on pending potential pitfalls.  DAS Swan met with 
President Pierre Nkurunziza, 1st Vice President Dr. Martin 
Nduwimana, 2nd Vice President Gabriel Ntisezarana, and other 
political officials to encourage them to end the political 
impasse and to resume negotiations with the sole remaining 
rebel group, the Palipehutu-FNL (FNL).  In discussions with 
the World Bank (WB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF), 
DAS Swan explored possibilities for financial relief to ease 
Burundi's current budget shortfall. DAS Swan also thanked 
each political leader for Burundi's commitment to deploy two 
battalions in support of the African Union's Mission to 
Somalia (AMISOM).  END SUMMARY 
 
¶2. (SBU) Deputy Assistant Secretary James Swan met with high 
level government officials on September 18-19 to offer strong 
US support for Burundi as it transitions to a post conflict 
society.  In consultations with the President, both Vice 
Presidents, and other political leaders, DAS Swan praised 
Burundi's many successes since the free and fair elections of 
¶2005.  However, DAS Swan cautioned that the current political 
impasse caused by the refusal of each political party to 
compromise prevents essential democratic institutions from 
functioning.  In order for Burundi to transition out of a 
post conflict society, DAS Swan added, the Government of 
Burundi (GOB) must lead and be committed to a positive and 
constructive dialogue with opposition parties.  It is clear 
that significant dialogue is already underway.  Both National 
Assembly President Pie Ntavyohanyumana and Front for 
Democracy in Burundi (FRODEBU) leader Leonce Ngendakumana 
confirmed that the National Council for the Defense of 
Democracy-Front for the Defense of Democracy (CNDD-FDD) and 
FRODEBU have reached agreement to give the government a 
working majority when the National Assembly returns October 1 
for its fall session. 
 
¶3. (SBU) DAS Swan also addressed the current challenges posed 
by the abrupt withdrawal of the FNL from cease-fire agreement 
negotiations.  All government officials blamed the FNL for 
the sudden cessation of the talks, yet maintained the GOB is 
willing to return to the negotiating table.  In expressing 
frustration with the rebel group, GOB officials remarked that 
the FNL has no intention to implement the cease-fire 
agreement.  DAS Swan acknowledged the difficulty of working 
with the rebels, but encouraged the GOB to partner with the 
FNL to prevent a return to violence.  DAS Swan also 
criticized a recent FNL initiative to replace the South 
African mediation team, maintaining that a change in 
mediation will only serve to prolong negotiations.  In an 
encouraging signal that regional states remain focused on the 
FNL problem, several GOB officials, including Foreign 
Minister Antoinette Batumubwira, confirmed that South 
African, Tanzanian, and Ugandan officials are meeting in 
Tanzania to determine next steps in implementation of the 
GOB-FNL accord of September 2006.  DAS Swan offered to issue 
a statement of US support for maintaining the South African 
mediation team if GOB officials felt it would be useful. 
 
¶4. (SBU) In consultations with both World Bank (WB) and 
International Monetary Fund (IMF) representatives, DAS Swan 
explored possible solutions to Burundi's current budget 
crisis.  The IMF defended its position not to review 
Burundi's 2008 budget until January, thereby holding up $93 
million in budgetary support from the WB and other donors. 
(Note: The WB and other donors usually require IMF budget 
approval before disbursing funds. End Note)  Without that 
support, the IMF noted that Burundi would have to cut 
government programs across the board and seek out 
IMF-facilitated alternative sources of financing.  The WB 
advised that if the IMF is able to issue some sort of 
positive signal after the IMF technical team visit in October 
but before the formal review in January 2008, then the WB and 
other donors may be able to exercise discretion and disburse 
funds.  The IMF, however, said flatly that no interim signal 
auguring a favorable formal review could be given in advance 
of the January 2008 meeting.  When meeting with GOB 
officials, DAS Swan reinforced the importance of a close 
collaboration with the IMF to ensure future budget support 
for Burundi.  The Ambassador plans to convene a meeting of 
senior GOB financial officials and the WB and IMF resident 
representatives to encourage them to develop a common 
strategy to address the urgent budget gap. 
 
¶5. (SBU) In meetings will all officials, but especially with 
Burundi Minister of Defense Lieutenant General Germain 
Niyoyankana, DAS Swan conveyed thanks and respect for the GOB 
 
decision to volunteer troops for the African Union Mission to 
Somalia (AMISOM).  General Niyoyankana replied that he 
appreciated US assistance for the deployment, but lamented 
the delay in equipment arrival.  DAS Swan assured Niyoyonkana 
that everything feasible is being done to ensure DynCorp 
expedites delivery of the equipment. 
 
¶6. (SBU) COMMENT: In his meeting with the President, DAS Swan 
heard Nkurunziza tacitly acknowledge that his CNDD-FDD party 
and opposition FRODEBU party are close to an agreement to end 
the current political stalemate.  Ending the political 
stalemate will be a positive step for the entire country.  It 
is, however, worth noting that a FRODEBU - CNDD-FDD alliance 
creates a power bloc preponderantly of ethnic Hutus, but one 
that reflects the generally accepted percentages within the 
country.  Absent a census, roughly 15% of the country is 
Tutsi; the rest is Hutu. Nonetheless, a FRODEBU - CNDD-FDD 
alliance would further exacerbate the plight of the fractured 
former ruling Tutsi party, Union for National Progress 
(UPRONA), emphasizing UPRONA's lack of power.  It will be 
important to monitor this development as Burundi's politics 
once again risk division along ethnic lines. END COMMENT 
MOLLER