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UNCLAS BUJUMBURA 000637 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR AF/C 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL BY
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT NKURUNZIZA TAKES ACTION TO INITIATE 
ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL PROGRESS 
 
REF: BUJUMBURA 626 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary: During the week of August 27, Ambassador 
Moller met with Burundi President Pierre Nkurunziza and key 
political leaders in follow-up to the unprecendented Ngozi 
meetings the previous week between Nkurunziza and the 
opposition FRODEBU and UPRONA parties.  President Nkurunziza 
called an impromptu tete-a-tete meeting with the Ambassador 
to update her on his progress with the looming IMF budgetary 
crisis and the security situation with the PALIPEHUTU-FNL. 
Notably, and in stark contrast to earlier meetings with the 
FRODEBU leader, party president Leonce Ngundakumana expressed 
satisfaction and optimism for cooperation with Nkurunziza's 
administration. Ngendakumana proclaimed that dialogue is now 
part of the culture of Burundi and the only alternative for 
ensuring progress.  With much less enthusiasm, Aloys Rubuka, 
leader of UPRONA declared cautious optimism for a continued 
partnership with the current regime.  The UPRONA party itself 
appears to be experiencing an internal meltdown, having split 
into two antagonistic factions principally over the ejection 
of Burundi First Vice-President, Dr. Martin Nduwimana, from 
the party.  Leonard Nyangoma, the CNDD party president who 
recently returned from exile in Europe, presented a 
pessimistic view of the political landscape and the security 
sector.  Nyangoma asserted that he and his party were ready 
to work with President Nkurunziza but declared his 
reinstatement to the National Assembly as a condition for his 
continued cooperation.  Africa Public Radio announced that 
politicians close to Nkurunziza planned a false coup for the 
end of August to facilitate the President's rumored intent to 
wrest power from the National Assembly through the 
declaration of a state of emergency. End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  In an impromptu meeting on August 30, President 
Nkurunziza updated Ambassador Moller on his progress in 
addressing a number of key issues plaguing Burundi's 
political and economic development.  Nkurunziza appealed for 
the Ambassador to advocate on Burundi's behalf to the 
International Monetary Fund (IMF), calling for the IMF to 
continue providing budgetary support to Nkurunziza's 
government.  The President noted that the IMF and the World 
Bank (WB) put stipulations on the continuation of their 
budgetary support and Nkurunziza claimed that he is working 
towards fulfilling those obligations.  Nkurunziza told the 
Ambassador that Second Vice-President, Gabriel Ntisezerana, 
is closely monitoring the situation to ensure that the 
governmnet of Burundi (GOB) receives its planned budgetary 
assistance.  Addressing the Interpetrol scandal which 
threatened to disrupt budgetary support, Nkurunziza said that 
a process is underway to seize Interpetrol's assets in a 
judicious and appropriate manner.  Nkurunziza added that the 
government is working with Interpol to apprehend and 
extradite former Minister of Finance, Denise Sinankwa, and 
the Minsiter of Finance during Burundi's transition period, 
Athanase Gahungu, both of whom are suspected of wrongdoing in 
the scandal with the petroleum corporation.  In reference to 
the 34% pay raise Nkurunziza promised to Burundi's civil 
servants, the President said it is accounted for in the 
current budget estimates. Nkurunziza claimed that, after some 
initial wrangling, the measure now has the approval of his 
entire cabinet; however, although it was unclear if the 
approval is a recent development or if Nkurunziza is 
referring to the time of its original proposal to the 
government. 
¶3.  (SBU)  Turning his attention to the security sector, 
President Nkurunziza claimed that 1,500 police officers would 
be demobilized, possibly using a portion of Interpetrol's 
assets currently being frozen and secured by the government. 
(reftel)  With regard to the continuing impasse with the 
PALIPEHUTU-FNL, President Nkurunziza asked the Ambassador to 
be aware and to understand that the PALIPEHUTU-FNL is still 
capable of creating difficulties for the Burundi government 
which may hinder compliance with a number of challenging IMF 
directives.  In reference to the recent political stalemate, 
Ambassador Moller congratulated President Nkurunziza on 
initiating a good-faith dialogue with his political 
opposition parties and urged the President to continue along 
this important path.  The Ambassador told Nkurunziza that she 
is continuing her meetings with political party leaders and 
members of the government continue to promotedialogue and 
encourage all parties to participate in the business of 
governing the country. 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  On Sunday, August 26, Ambassador Moller 
accompanied the diplomatic corps to Gitega, Burundi's former 
capital city, to observe the second anniversary of the 
 
inauguration of the President.  The Government was 
well-represented; cabinet ministers and other high officials 
attended.  President Nkurunziza used his speech to emphasize 
some of the points recommended by IMF in its action plan to 
the GOB, including mention of the sale of the Presidential 
airplane and the Interpetrol scandal. 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  The leaders of the Front for Democracy in Burundi 
(FRODEBU) party, Leonce Ngendakumana and his deputy Frederic 
Bamvuginyumvira, met with Ambassador Moller on August 27 and 
expressed optimism for a continuing and productive dialogue 
with President Nkurunziza.  Expressing satisfaction with the 
prospect of further dialogue between FRODEBU and Nkurunziza, 
Ngendakumana stated that it is important to continue moving 
forward for the sake of Burundi's economic development. 
During FRODEBU's August 23 discussions with Nkurunziza in 
Ngozi, the Burundi president surprised Ngendakumana by 
agreeing that the current framework for the government cannot 
work.  According to the FRODEBU party president, Nkurunziza 
recognized that it was a mistake to use political party power 
to form a government and that Nkurunziza is obliged to reach 
a compromise for ending the political stalemate.  While 
commenting that he believes President Nkurunziza is beginning 
to understand the seriousness of Burundi's political and 
economic state, Ngendakumana also said that it is important 
for the Ambassador to continue supporting Nkurunziza because 
the President's ruling CNDD-FDD party is split and Nkurunziza 
no longer enjoys a political majority.  In conclusion to 
their remarks, the FRODEBU leaders stated that their party is 
committed to moving forward in cooperation with Nkurunziza's 
administration.  Ngendakumana stressed that FRODEBU simply 
wants an equitable participatory role in the government, 
explaining that if FRODEBU merely wanted political seats, 
they would have had them by now. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Ngendakumana and Bamvuginyumvira met Nkurunziza in 
Ngozi on August 23 on the same day that Burundi's national 
police attempted to arrest FRODEBU party spokesman, Pancrace 
Cimpaye, for making disparaging remarks against Nkurunziza 
and his ruling CNDD-FDD party.  Despite the subsequent 
tension and fear of violence, Ngendakumana explained that the 
two leaders decided to keep their appointment with Nkurunziza 
as a gesture of goodwill and to demonstrate that party 
politics should not be more important than the future of 
Burundi.  Ngendakumana asserted that there is no longer an 
alternative to dialogue; dialogue is now in the Burundi 
culture, he continued, as it should be for all of Africa. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) On the heels of his meeting with Burundi President 
Pierre Nkurunziza in Ngozi, Union for National Progress 
(UPRONA) party chairman, Aloys Rubuka, visited the embassy on 
August 27 to update Ambassador Moller concerning the current 
relationship between his opposition party and Nkurunziza's 
government.  Rubuka expressed satisfaction with Nkurunziza's 
gesture of goodwill by initiating clear and open dialogue 
between their two factions; however he held little confidence 
that dialogue alone would mend their political impasse.  The 
party chairman lamented that Nkurunziza does not view the 
nation's problems with much importance, as evidenced by the 
President's August 26 anniversary speech which Rubuka claimed 
did not show a willingness by the government to move forward, 
nor did it focus on the nation's political and economic 
problems.  Expecting more forward progress, Rubuka stated 
that Burundi's Partner Roundtable is the only significant 
accomplishment of Nkurunziza's tenure thus far.  Rubuka also 
cited a recent meeting during which President Nkurunziza 
allegedly told European Ambassadors that all is well in 
Burundi and no major crises existed. 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  Aloys Rubuka complained that President Nkurunziza 
has apparently chosen to eliminate opposition voices through 
force rather than opening a dialogue to address the political 
impasse.  The UPRONA leader said that the President's ruling 
National Council for the Defense of Democracy-Forces for the 
Defense for Democracy (CNDD-FDD) party is split into two 
factions: a wing that is willing to open a dialogue with the 
opposition parties, and a stronger group that wants to use 
intimidation, threats and force to silence dissenting 
opinions.  Rubuka referred to disparaging speeches by 
Nkurunziza, the publication of opposition names and 
photographs in a CNDD-FDD newspaper, and the grenade attacks 
against a number of Parliamentarians as recent examples of 
ruling party tactics.  Rubuka stressed that this method of 
dealing with Nkurunziza's opposition voices is not a solution 
and will lead to fear and chaos which will expand to other 
sectors of society. 
 
 
¶9.  (SBU)  When asked to share any specific recommendations 
that the UPRONA party could give to President Nkurunziza, 
Rubuka stated that the UPRONA party was in the midst of 
creating something 'concrete', but first wanted to be assured 
of the President's goodwill.  Rubuka also emphasized that 
President Nkurunziza should not be embarrassed to fight and 
punish violators of human rights, corruption and 
embezzlement.  Rubuka added that Nkurunziza must begin to 
appoint competent and appropriate people to positions of 
influence and authority.  In closing, Rubuka claimed that the 
UPRONA party will remain available to any dialogue that 
Nkurunziza offers for the future. 
 
¶10.  (SBU)  The UPRONA party, the second largest in 
opposition to President Nkurunziza and his ruling CNDD-FDD 
party, is imploding, threatening their ability to advance 
their causes in the current political arena.  Late last week, 
UPRONA party chairman Aloys Rubuka, along with UPRONA 
hard-liner Terence Sinunguruza and other party supporters 
effectively expelled Burundi First Vice-President and UPRONA 
member Dr. Martin Nduwimana from the party.  Rubuka and his 
followers reasoned that Nduwimana consistently ignored UPRONA 
party requests to consult the party before making any 
decisions on pending executive legislation.  Nduwimana's 
supporters within the party are vehemently opposing the 
dismissal, declaring that there is no basis or legality to 
the action.  The UPRONA party members further complained that 
Nduwimana is now 'playing the same game' as the Nkurunziza 
and his CNDD-FDD party rather than advancing the UPRONA party 
platform.  On August 27, Rubuka and Sinunguruza called for an 
Executive Committee meeting to be held at UPRONA headquarters 
to discuss, among other issues, Nduwimana's expulsion. 
Nduwimana reportedly called for the national police to appear 
at UPRONA party headquarters to prevent any violence from 
occuring between the embattled and heated party factions. 
Rubuka countered that Nduwimana called the police to prevent 
expulsion supporters from attending the party's Executive 
Committee meeting and to prevent UPRONA members from 
listening to a planned press conference by chairman Rubuka, 
both events meant to advance Nduwimana's dismissal. 
 
¶11.  (SBU)  CNDD party President Leonard Nyangoma met with 
Ambassador Moller on August 30 and presented his dire 
assessment of the political landscape.  Although Nyangoma 
conceded forward progress at the level of the National 
Assembly, he held serious doubts the sincerity of President 
Nkurunziza's overture to dialogue with the political 
opposition, opining that Nkurunziza is simply putting on a 
show for the international community.  Nyangoma questioned 
the support that the Burundi president has within his inner 
circle and with the National Assembly, claiming that 75% of 
the Parliament is against Nkurunziza but will not say so 
publicly for fear of reprisals.  The CNDD president asserted 
that Nkurunziza is being duped by his closest advisors who do 
not want dialogue among the political rivals and are 
accumulating embezzled wealth.  In particular, Nyangoma named 
CNDD-FDD party president Jeremie Ngendakumana; the head of 
the National Intelligence Service (SNR), Aldophe 
Nshimirimana; the Chief of Police, Alain Guillaume Bunyoni; 
and the Minister of the Interior, Evariste Ndayishimiye as 
members of Nkurunziza's circle of advisors.  Nyangoma claims 
that the government has a history of corruption and abuses, 
and refuses to effectively address these issues through a 
judicial process and a Truth and Reconciliation Committee, 
for fear that powerful people may be implicated for past 
offenses. 
 
¶12.  (SBU)  The CNDD party president described the security 
sector as steadily worsening.  Nyangoma considers the 
relationship between the PALIPEHUTU-FNL and the government a 
key component to stabilizing the peace in Burundi but 
complained that Nkurunziza has apparently chosen an attitude 
of 'war' over dialogue as a resolution to the problem with 
the rebel faction.  Nyangoma expressed concern over the steep 
rise in criminality that has occured within the country and 
personally feared for his own safety after reportedly having 
his name associated with a rumored false coup plot planned 
for the end of the month.  Chief among Nyangoma's desires is 
his reinstatement to the National Assembly.  Nyangoma lost 
his position in the Parliament in 2006 due to his extended 
absence while in exile.  The matter of his reinstatement has 
not yet been decided by the Bureau of the National Assembly 
but Nyangoma asserts that his reinstatement is a 
pre-condition for any future dialogue with Nkurunziza's 
administration. 
 
 
¶13.  (SBU)  On August 28, Ambassador Moller, accompanied by 
the Legal Attache (Legat) from Nairobi, Matteo Valles, and 
Embassy Assistant Regional Security Officer (A/RSO), Erik 
Olerud, called on Burundi's Chief of Police, Alain Guillaume 
Bunyoni.  In the course of her meetings to ask a wide variety 
of local leaders for their assessment of Burundi's political 
situation and how best to move forward, the Ambassador took 
advantage of Legat Valles' presence to visit Bunyoni, widely 
touted as on of the country's three or four most powerful 
behind-the-scenes political players.  Citing the excellent 
performance of Burundi's first and only student in the U.S. 
FBI Academy, Ambassador Moller told Bunyoni she had obtained 
the slot for Burundi by asking for it from the Deputy 
Director of the FBI during her trip to Washington in October 
¶2006.  She offered to make a request for an additional 
position during her upcoming 2008 consultations and discussed 
the desirability of police training.  The A/RSO also 
elaborated on International Law Enforcement Academy (ILEA) 
training opportunities in Botswana. 
 
¶14.  (SBU)  The Ambassador asked Bunyoni how he saw the 
political situation in Burundi, saying she had asked 
important and influential persons throughout Burundian 
society the same question.  Bunyoni replied that he thought a 
lack of dialogue between, especially, political leaders of 
all parties is to blame.  Bunyoni encouraged the political 
players to have more meetings and interaction as a way to 
move forward.  Bunyoni then raised the subject of the 
incident at the Ambassador's residence when members of the 
national police surrounded the compound to prevent opposition 
FRODEBU party spokesperson, Pancrace Cimpaye, from seeking 
refuge.  Bunyoni stated that an "administrative action" had 
already been taken against the supervisor who ordered the 
stakeout.  The police chief hoped the Ambassador did not 
believe that the order had come from "high up the chain of 
command."  Ambassador Moller assured the General she did not, 
saying she felt most welcome in Burundi. 
 
¶15.  (SBU)  On August 27, African Public Radio (APR) 
announced that politicians close to President Nkurunziza 
planned to stage a 'false coup' as a precursor to 
establishing a state of emergency and eliminating political 
opposition.  The state of emergency would allow President 
Nkurunziza to dissolve the National Assembly and dictate 
legislation from the executive office, thereby eliminating 
the political impasse that is inhibiting Burundi's economic 
development.  APR reported the news item as a 'public 
courtesy' in the hopes that public awareness would dissuade 
the coup plotters from exposing Burundi's people to more 
violence.  According to published reports, members of 
CNDD-FDD would team with members of the Tutsi-majority 
Burundi Armed Forces (FAB), a faction of the National Defense 
Forces (FDN), to announce the bloodless overthrow of 
Nkurunziza.  Soon afterwards, members of the FDN loyal to 
Nkurunziza would reinstate Nkurunziza as the legitimate 
leader.  Citing political instability, the plan called for 
Nkurunziza to subsequently declare a state of emergency.  At 
the same time, key members of the political opposition and 
members of civil society would be silenced and 'eliminated' 
to mitigate any public backlash to Nkurunziza's seizure of 
political autonomy.  The false coup designers allegedly 
planned the coup for the end of August.  On August 29, the 
General Prosecutor in Bujumbura delivered a warrant to the 
Director of APF, Emmanuel Nsabimana, ordering his appearance 
before the court, reportedly in connection with the broadcast 
of the alleged false coup. 
 
¶16.  (SBU) Comment: President Nkurunziza's realization of the 
gravity of the financial problems facing Burundi is clearly 
the highlight of the week.  The prevailing thought among 
political and economic observers centered around Nkurunziza's 
apparent lack of interest in addressing the various financial 
scandals or the political stalemate which is hindering 
economic progress.  The cessation of IMF and WB budgetary 
assistance would have disastrous effects on Burundi's 
population and, arguably, lead to general strikes and 
certainly public disturbances.  Nkurunziza's sophisticated 
and intelligent description of his actions to address the 
country's woes bolsters the hope that the Burundi President 
may finally be eschewing party bickering in favor of the 
economic survival of his people.  Equally impressive is 
Nkurunziza's gesture of goodwill and dialogue towards his 
political enemies.  It is yet to be seen if this is all a 
show for international observers or if his intentions to work 
with UPRONA and FRODEBU are sincere. Nonetheless, this is a 
 
step in the right direction.  The progress of the major 
opposition parties seems fraught with highs and lows and, 
between UPRONA and FRODEBU, who appear to be moving in 
opposite directions.  FRODEBU's sudden cooperative stance and 
willingness to form some sort of coalition to overcome the 
political impasse, especially as it coincides with apparent 
acts of initimidation and harassment by the ruling 
government, shows a maturity in their approach that is 
clearly a recent development.  On the other hand, UPRONA, the 
normally more passive of the two major opposition voices, is 
in a clear meltdown as they struggle for internal power 
rather than focusing on advancing their agenda with 
Nkurunziza's administration.  With his widely regarded 
reputation as a major power-broker behind the executive 
office, establishing a new line of communication with the 
intelligent and well-educated Police Chief Bunyoni may prove 
to be very valuable as well.  On balance, despite the rise in 
criminality, the struggle to lure the PALIPEHUTU-FNL back to 
the ceasefire implementation, and the rumors of political 
coups, the accomplishments of President Nkurunziza coupled 
with the a new attitude by the once thorny FRODEBU party puts 
Burundi on a more positive and upward footing.  End Comment. 
MOLLER